APRIL 2022 : Super investors warns : US Market crash coming...SELL!...yr end UPDATE


I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

today => wk end + mth end + qtr end with option contracts expiry
Reply

(30-09-2022, 03:47 PM)TalkingRabbit Wrote:  today => wk end + mth end + qtr end with option contracts expiry

Likely is cause of last minute selloff today.
US PCE worse than expected.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

Observed on 30 Sep something unusual on US market. "Good stocks" were sold off today.
[Image: 2vqlpgp.png]

Speculative stocks that have ready collapsed were stable or rose
[Image: dxm7hLD.png]

It's as if investors sold everything until they have nothing left to sell so they sold their quality names like Microsoft and Amazon.

Early in the stock down turn, someone said it is not over until Apple and Microsoft gets dumped.

Looking at where valuaations are and the whole economic situation. I don't think sell off is over. Even if market bounce it is temporary.

[Image: QnIKWfx.png]

Here is my reasoning

1. Nasdaq is about 10% higher than at peak before pandemic.

2. The economic situation then and interest rate environment was far better.

3. There will be earnings revision downwards this is a certainty. Look at Nike anniuncment. Nike has fallen 59% this yr but the stock is not cheap.

4. The bottom will fall out if US enters a recession.

Although people say US has fallen so much bear in mind it is from very high levels when Fed pumped up the bubble.... like 2000.

If nasdaq get below 10K it starts to look more reasonable...but it won't be cheap until much lower.

Other countries like India, Indonesia and Vietnam are going to see 5-8% growth stable economies with room for long term growth appear more attractive.

The last 10yrs USA only performed because of favorable monetary policies. All that has changed.


Indonesia etf vs S&P500

[Image: JB7JXrM.png]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

After doing a throughout analytics of the S&P500 and using a method known as integrated AAequity analysis..

This is how long term investors should strategize for long term returns for next 10yrs.

1. The lower your entry point the higher your returns. Conversely, the higher your entry point the lower your return in 10yrs. So you should be happy the market comes down to give you opportunity to buy for higher returns.

2. Without going into fine details, here is a simple guide.

a. If you want to by S&P500 for annualised real returns of 5% in next 10yrs buy at below 3000.

b if you want returns of 10% a year, buy below 2500.

My suggestion is don't buy anything until it get to those levels.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

US Market may bounce after such a sharp selloff.

1. Do not rush to buy.
2. Use the opportunity to selloff some of the richly value growth stocks.

For s&p500 if one wants a reasonable return you need to buy around 3k level.

If you want very good returns you need to buy at 2500 level but it may take some time to get there ....

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

Many high growth stocks have charts like this one.
Below is AMD.

While AMD js a good company its stock price is pushed too high. 

This is identical.to another stock called CISCO in dot.com bubble. CiSCO was a dominant play and continue to dominate for another 10yrs before competitors weakened its position but it is good as it comes for a tech company.

[Image: 5N5XUJr.jpg]

If you look at CISCO it took 2.5yrs to hit bottom during that time jts business did well. 2.5yrs after dot.com bubble the stock was down 84%. ...then after15yrs it returned 500%.

Using that as a reference the entry level for AMD should be below $40....if there is a recession and demand for its CPU decline it goes as low as $30...this will be possible when earnings slow. ..that will put it 80% off its peak.

I over simplified a but not two stocks move identically.

However I also ran through its valuations to cross check possible entry points.

The cisco chatting shown below....there is clear similarity with AMD 2020 vs 2000.

[Image: TjOczRd.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

Where is the similarity?

Why is it clear similarity? Which aspect is clear?
Reply

(03-10-2022, 06:29 PM)Sentinel Wrote:  Where is the similarity?

Why is it clear similarity? Which aspect is clear?
At peak cisco had PE of 80 ....AMD is the same.
AMD rose 10x jn 2 yrs cisco rose 10x in 2 yrs.
Just like Cisco AMD is starting to peak and  crash half way.

[Image: wv5sS7t.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

(03-10-2022, 05:58 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  US Market may bounce after such a sharp selloff.

1. Do not rush to buy.
2. Use the opportunity to selloff some of the richly value growth stocks.

For s&p500 if one wants a reasonable return you need to buy around 3k level.

If you want very good returns you need to buy at 2500 level but it may take some time to get there ....

Bounce has started with Dow up 595pts.

[Image: QdE9gWQ.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

(03-10-2022, 10:36 PM)FartSunKing Wrote:  Alibaba is a richly overvalued stock with PE 45

Fair value PE around 15

Sell or hold?

Alibaba is not richly valued.
.
1. It has 30% of its capitalisation in cash.
2. The earnings are lower due to decline in value of its investments, operating income remains healthy. Because of this PE was high.
3. If I am not holding so much I will definitely buy more  at current price.
4. There are however may interesting buys in HK market as index falls to 11yr lows...so there is no shortage of investment opportunities

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

(03-10-2022, 05:58 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  US Market may bounce after such a sharp selloff.

1. Do not rush to buy.
2. Use the opportunity to selloff some of the richly value growth stocks.

For s&p500 if one wants a reasonable return you need to buy around 3k level.

If you want very good returns you need to buy at 2500 level but it may take some time to get there ....

your insight and foresight are flawless wisdom for your stock fans in this forum.

you are a genius !
Reply

it's a waste of his talent to give his valuable market insights in a ran ran forum
Reply

(03-10-2022, 11:25 PM)WhatDoYouThink! Wrote:  it's a waste of his talent to give his valuable market insights in a ran ran forum

absolutely spot on !

he may be our next "Peter Lim" in coming years
Reply

(03-10-2022, 11:31 PM)forum456 Wrote:  absolutely spot on !

he may be our next "Peter Lim" in coming years

Rotfl
Reply

(03-10-2022, 05:58 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  US Market may bounce after such a sharp selloff.

1. Do not rush to buy.
2. Use the opportunity to selloff some of the richly value growth stocks.

For s&p500 if one wants a reasonable return you need to buy around 3k level.

If you want very good returns you need to buy at 2500 level but it may take some time to get there ....

Here is another perspective ..
S&P500 current PE is 18. Average is 14 to 16, and Bear market average is about 10 to 12
Consider this.
The growth prospects are lowest in last 10 years.
Inflation is mostly dictated by Food and housing prices (including rent) and they are going nowhere but north, taking mortgage interest into consideration that is.
EU is economically torn, UK on shaky grounds
Bad debt? Yes There is plenty, just look at bad corporate bond purchases . This is similar to 2007 housing crash, this time its S&M companies with huge bad debt.
This is a 3 recessions in succession time. We are just in the first one, the simplest one that is driven by increasing interest rates.
Looking for safety? Look at 2017 prices and wait for prices to hit that point.

Laughter-13  Laughter-13

Reply

(04-10-2022, 12:16 AM)ROFLMAO Wrote:  Here is another perspective ..
S&P500 current PE is 18. Average is 14 to 16, and Bear market average is about 10 to 12
Consider this.
The growth prospects are lowest in last 10 years.
Inflation is mostly dictated by Food and housing prices (including rent) and they are going nowhere but north, taking mortgage interest into consideration that is.
EU is economically torn, UK on shaky grounds
Bad debt? Yes There is plenty, just look at bad corporate bond purchases . This is similar to 2007 housing crash, this time its S&M companies with huge bad debt.
This is a 3 recessions in succession time. We are just in the first one, the simplest one that is driven by increasing interest rates.
Looking for safety? Look at 2017 prices and wait for prices to hit that point.

In 2007, thee financial crisis pulled down all markets and we went from problems to shock and crisis.

My view of the 2007 is it could have turned out different if leaders and authorities better managed the situation. So I don't see that history will repeat unless they are stupid.

The mistake made in 2007 allowing Lehman to collapse and that created the shockwaves we never saw before. If Leham was rescued and money was injected to stabilise system situation will be bad but not a disaster. It will be more like 2012 Europe crisis alot of trouble but no collapse.

For the markets tracking data across the world there is aa decoupling phenomena. Indonesia and Malaysia did much better than US maketes this year . Hong Kong and China is desyncronised from US. HK rally from March to May as US markets drop. 

Investors are too captivated by last 10yrs of US markets. Many neglected markets start to look interesting even as Europe and US sinks.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

Your katek backside will be fried pain pain Big Grin

Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine Big Grin
Reply

(04-10-2022, 05:59 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  In 2007, thee financial crisis pulled down all markets and we went from problems to shock and crisis.

My view of the 2007 is it could have turned out different if leaders and authorities better managed the situation. So I don't see that history will repeat unless they are stupid.

The mistake made in 2007 allowing Lehman to collapse and that created the shockwaves we never saw before. If Leham was rescued and money was injected to stabilise system situation will be bad but not a disaster. It will be more like 2012 Europe crisis alot of trouble but no collapse.

For the markets tracking data across the world there is aa decoupling phenomena. Indonesia and Malaysia did much better than US maketes this year . Hong Kong and China is desyncronised from US. HK rally from March to May as US markets drop. 

Investors are too captivated by last 10yrs of US markets. Many neglected markets start to look interesting even as Europe and US sinks.

you are absolutely genius!
Reply

(03-10-2022, 11:31 PM)forum456 Wrote:  absolutely spot on !

he may be our next "Peter Lim" in coming years

Peter Lim should offer Kim Lim to Sgbuff.. Triple win for the 3 of them.. Rotfl

Laughter-13  Laughter-13

Reply

ah mao aso sgtalk market talk genius ah? must hv made millions
Reply

WTO falling trade volumes point to deep recession.. in 2023


I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply
Exclamation 

2022 is identical to collapse of 2008.
We are less than half way to bottom.

More market plunge in coming months.

[Image: AhWf9wE.png]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

(08-10-2022, 08:17 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  2022 is identical to collapse of 2008.
We are less than half way to bottom.

More market plunge in coming months.

you are a genius !
Reply

[Image: ZQxrdyK.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

(08-10-2022, 09:55 AM)forum456 Wrote:  you are a genius !

Sgbuffet, forum456 is suaning you Big Grin

Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine Big Grin
Reply

Sgbuffet post makes sense! I think something big say a bank collaspe somewhere will be the final leg down. Standby cash to bargain hunt!!!
Reply

these are signs of a coming NUCLEAR WAR
NUCLEAR WAR!
NUCLEAR WAR!
Reply

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news...es-2022-10

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply

White cat or black cat the one can catch the mouse will be good cat...let see next two months what happen...
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)