Fed aggressive rate hikes always cause deep recession
#61

https://www.business-standard.com/articl...023_1.html
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#62

thought dbs and ocbc will merge in 2008 but they decided to right issues at that time

DBS slips on on takeover concerns
June 25, 2001 Posted: 4:08 AM EDT (0808 GMT)

Singapore banks
Bank consolidation is moving ahead in Singapore's domestic market
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SINGAPORE -- Shares in Singapore's biggest bank, DBS Group, hit two-year lows on Monday on concerns over its hostile $5.2 billion bid for smaller rival Overseas Union Bank.

DBS slumped to S$12.30 before finding some support around S$12.80, down S$0.90 or 6.5 percent.

OUB, the fourth largest of Singapore's five local banks, dropped to as low as S$8.70 before recovering to near its pre-suspension price of S$9.05. Just before the close, OUB was down 10 cents at S$8.95.

On Friday, DBS launched a stock and cash bid for OUB valued at S$9.4 billion, or $5.2 billion.

Second takeover bid this month
It is the second bank takeover move this month. On June 12, second-ranked Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp launched a $2.64 billion (S$4.8 billion) cash offer for Keppel Capital Holdings, which owns Keppel TatLee Bank.

The OCBC move on Keppel Capital was the first proposed merger in what could be a wave of bank consolidations in the small domestic market of Singapore, which has a population of only 4 million.

It follows a warning in May 1999 by the Monetary Authority of Singapore that there was room for only two strong local banks in Singapore.

DBS, which is also in the throes of a S$10.5 billion takeover of Hong Kong's Dao Heng Bank, has offered S$9.50 for each OUB share based on a ratio of 0.61 of a DBS share plus S$1.14 in cash.

DBS and OCBC were the two most actively traded shares Monday.

"It's just arbitrage play as expected," said Seah Hiang Hong, research head of Kim Eng Securities.

Overall weakness in bank shares on Monday was partly due to investors cashing out after driving them up on merger speculation in the wake of OCBC's offer for Keppel Capital two weeks ago.

Focus now on any move by UOB
Government-linked DBS is already the largest lender in Southeast Asia. It would become the third biggest bank in Asia outside Japan and Australia if the OUB deal goes through.

DBS assets would go from S$112 billion to S$194 billion if both the OCBC and Dao Heng Bank takeovers proceed.

Investment banking sources said the focus was now on when United Overseas Bank (UOB) would make a counter bid for either of the local banks under siege.

Analysts said UOB, controlled by veteran banker Wee Cho Yaw, must do something as it stands to be marginalized when the government fully liberalizes the banking sector, allowing in greater foreign competition.
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#63

when asia was attacked in 1997

Dollar Edges Lower Again Amid Jitters About Stocks
An Interactive Edition News Roundup
July 19, 1996 5:56 pm ET
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NEW YORK -- The dollar moved lower against the mark and yen on Friday, pulled down by a decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and by investors paring their holdings ahead of the weekend.

The dollar was trading at 107.95 yen late in New York Friday, down from 108.38 yen a day earlier. The dollar also was quoted at 1.4874 marks, down from 1.4913 marks late Thursday in New York.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 37.36 to 5426.82 Friday.

Traders said dealings were extremely thin as investors paused to reassess their positions after a volatile week for the dollar.

Though most traders are still bullish on the dollar in the long term, they see more risks on the downside than on the upside. "For the moment we have too many wounds to lick from last week," said Scott Gallappo, chief dealer at Chase Bank, referring to this week's debacle in the U.S. stock market and the sudden realization that U.S. interest rates may not be lifted as aggressively has some on Wall Street had speculated.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before Congress Thursday that the Fed isn't yet convinced that the economy is overheating, although he said the central bank will be closely watching economic indicators in the weeks ahead for signs of inflationary pressures.

The specter of rising Japanese interest rates continued to weigh on the U.S. currency. Traders said the dollar is suffering from a growing sense that interest-rate differentials will soon shift in favor of the yen. The week has seen heightened speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise rates in the near-term.

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
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#64

the rocky 2001

By Sara Webb and Hasan Jafri Staff Reporters of The Wall Street Journal
June 13, 2001 3:41 pm ET
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SINGAPORE -- The long-awaited consolidation of the banking sector in Singapore took a step forward as the nation's third-biggest bank, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. , unveiled a 4.8 billion Singapore dollar (US$2.7 billion) surprise takeover bid for the nation's smallest bank, Keppel Capital Holdings Ltd.

If successful, the acquisition would make OCBC Singapore's second-largest bank by assets, and would generate considerable savings, OCBC said.

However, it isn't a done deal for OCBC. Lim Chee Onn, chairman of Keppel Capital, said late Tuesday, "We are in talks with other local banks, including OCBC, which have indicated interest in [Keppel Capital] and its subsidiaries." Mr. Lim added that while Keppel Capital will evaluate OCBC's offer, "we advise shareholders and warrant holders to take no action until they receive further notice" from Keppel Capital.

Government Pressure
Following the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, Singapore has been urging domestic banks to merge to survive tougher competition from foreign banks such as HSBC Corp. , Citibank and ABN-Amro.

But there has been little action in recent years in Singapore other than in the state-controlled sector. In 1998, government-controlled Development Bank of Singapore Ltd. acquired the government-owned Post Office Savings Bank, known as POSBank.

HOW THEY COMPARE
Singapore Banks by size at the end of 2000, in Singapore dollars:

Total net profit (billions)Assets after tax* (millions)Development Bank of Singapore 111.21,390United Overseas Bank66.3912.9Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.59.7840Overseas Union Bank46.6545Keppel Capital26301.5
*For year 2000

Sources: Singapore Exchange Web site, the companies.

While the government has repeatedly prodded Singapore's banks to consolidate, the family-controlled banks have appeared reluctant to give up control of their businesses. There was speculation at one time that OCBC might be interested in acquiring Overseas Union Bank. But that deal never materialized, and Overseas Union had been in talks to sell a stake to BNP-Paribas SA.

OCBC has made "a number of false starts' said Kevin Scully, head of NetResearch in Singapore. Some of OCBC's Internet banking operations have proved unsuccessful, while plans to divest itself of property interests were postponed earlier this year due to unfavorable market conditions, he added.

A 14% Premium
OCBC said Tuesday it will make a cash offer for all Keppel Capital shares at S$3.38 each, a 14% premium to Keppel Capital's closing price of S$2.96 on Monday. Keppel Capital shares closed at S$2.97 Tuesday, while OCBC shares in Singapore rose 2.8% to S$11.

OCBC values Keppel Capital at S$4.8 billion. OCBC said it will offer S$1.01 for each Keppel Capital warrant.

"The acquisition of [Keppel Capital] will represent the next step forward in OCBC Bank's mission to be a world-class financial institution in Asia Pacific," OCBC said. "The combination of the businesses will establish OCBC Bank as clearly the second-largest Singapore bank, enhancing its ability to pursue expansion in its core markets of Singapore, Malaysia and Greater China."

OCBC Bank's offer will be conditional on, among other things, regulatory approvals and OCBC Bank acquiring more than 50% of Keppel Capital.

'Very Cheap'
Analysts said OCBC is offering a relatively low price for Keppel Capital. "It's [1.7] times book, and very cheap," said Sam Chin, an analyst at ABN Amro Asia Securities.

That is in stark contrast to DBS Group Holdings Ltd. 's planned purchase of Dao Heng Bank Group Ltd. , at more than three times book value, said Mr. Chin. "They are buying a bank with the same number of loans as Dao Heng at half the price," he said.

Keppel Capital is the banking arm of government-linked Keppel Corp. , which owns 37% of the lender. Allied Irish Bank PLC has an option to buy 24.9% of Keppel Capital by June 2002. Banking and finance contribute a significant portion of Keppel Corp.'s profits and revenues, 57% and 26% respectively in 2000, according the company's annual report. "A merger of our Singapore operations with those of Keppel Capital will result in substantial opportunities for revenue enhancement and cost savings," OCBC Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Alex Au said.

"We've done a thorough analysis of the expected synergies, but for regulatory reasons, we cannot divulge further information at this time. We hope to furnish more details in our formal offer document," Mr. Au added.

Picking Up the Pace
Analysts have speculated the pace of consolidation in Singapore will hasten as the government liberalizes the sector further, allowing greater competition from foreign banks. Last month, Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore's deputy prime minister who is also chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said domestic consolidation could soon increase.

OCBC said it has enough money to finance the planned acquisition, though it didn't provide details in a statement to the Singapore exchange. However, people familiar with corporate finance said OCBC may raise up to S$3 billion in Tier 2 capital, probably by tapping the bond market. UBS Warburg, a unit of UBS AG , is sole financial adviser to OCBC for the general offer, and sole lead manager and bookrunner for any financing associated with the transaction.

Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday affirmed OCBC's double-A-3 long-term and Prime-1 short-term foreign-currency deposit ratings, following the announcement of its bid for Keppel Capital. But Moody's downgraded OCBC's bank financial strength rating to single-B from single-B-plus to "reflect the significantly reduced but still strong capital levels that would support the group's enlarged business after the completion of the transaction."

-- Amit Prakash of Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this article.
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#65

another round of russia ukraine version in asia stock market soon
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#66

The U.S. economy has experienced 12 recessions since World War II, and each one included two features: Economic output contracted and unemployment rose.

we will have a jobless recovery again in us soon
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#67

when you have a jobless recovery how the american voters will vote in the coming election anybody guess
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#68

tech companies layoff workers while security,cleaning and hotel,tour and medical hire part timers to tide work shortage
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#69

now sgd to yen around 97 it is worst than during 1997 thanks to the G7 financial sanction and FED aggressive rate hikes
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#70

the world need a orchestrated financial recession so the FED will cuit rates and print money again
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#71

oil price around usd 70 was good compared to negative oil price in march 2020 but when it shoot above usd100 the danger zone lighted out worldwide
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#72

thank to us stock market crahsed in 2009, sgd to yen was 59 on 2009....and many sg companies started to invest in japan market
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#73

we will see how they use local issues to solve global issues
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#74

and japan zero interest rate policy aftyer 1997

https://freecurrencyrates.com/en/exchang...Y/1997/cbr
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#75

jardine C&C falling back to $20 soon after asian currencies selloff
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#76

germany economy already hit by russia ukraine war
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#77

Currency suggest major correction tonight...
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#78

it is a very difficult time when US start to hike rates aggressive and we need to intervene in sgd to fight inflation as usd get stronger across the world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N23S3YyBh8E
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#79

usd sgd 1.4042 strengten when we want to buy food ,meat ,vegetables worldwide to beat inflation
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#80

usd sgd 1.4042 so that asian currencies that are depreciating against usd will continue to shift their money in sg financial system
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#81

absd not a wealth tax but it is a tax when singaporean buy property to hedge inflation
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#82

when us interest rate keep rising and inflation keep going up worldwide due to food shortage and supply chain disruption any saving bond yield will also keep rising as bond price falls even it is not traded
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#83

otherrise the bond yield will rise from 1.7 to 2.4% right in 2022
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#84

it reminded us about the 1997 south korea economy

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business...es-2789536
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#85

when all assets corrected to 1997's price global inflation will stop
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#86

gst increase must all cost increases too

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapor...rs-2790321

but salary for most never increase so they say we are much better compare than the 60s when cost are very very low
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#87

russia is on the negotiation table between us and china

and terms and conditions on trade tariffs imposed on china
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#88

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/bl...ne-2791506
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#89

(28-06-2022, 09:50 AM)chartist kao Wrote:  These are some of the developments we are watching:

    Worldwide concerns of a recession have increased with several economists predicting a U.S. recession in late 2022 or early 2023.
    Real estate sales have fallen to their lowest level since 2020 in several countries as rising mortgage rates discourage buyers.
    Australia's energy market was thrown into crisis in a case of market failure, resulting in soaring prices and fears of blackouts.

and the black swan in october 2022

U.S.A. going into recession....price of WTI crude oil slipped $9.01 per barrel by 12:37 pm ET below $100 per barrel to $99.42 (-8.31%), while Brent crude sank $10.41 per barrel to $103.10 (-9.17%).

Also on Tuesday, a Citi report suggested that oil prices could fall to as low as $65 per barrel by the end of this year and as low as $45 by the end of next year if the world enters a recession and demand tanks.

According to Citi, oil demand goes negative “only in the worst global recessions, but oil prices fall in all recessions to roughly the marginal cost.”

In the same report, however, Citi said that it did not expect the U.S. economy to fall into a recession.
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#90

(06-07-2022, 02:18 PM)Teeth53 Wrote:  U.S.A. going into recession....price of WTI crude oil slipped $9.01 per barrel by 12:37 pm ET below $100 per barrel to $99.42 (-8.31%), while Brent crude sank $10.41 per barrel to $103.10 (-9.17%).

Also on Tuesday, a Citi report suggested that oil prices could fall to as low as $65 per barrel by the end of this year and as low as $45 by the end of next year if the world enters a recession and demand tanks.

According to Citi, oil demand goes negative “only in the worst global recessions, but oil prices fall in all recessions to roughly the marginal cost.”

In the same report, however, Citi said that it did not expect the U.S. economy to fall into a recession.
U.S.A. going into recession???. 🤪
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