[Sticw]

Stagflation cash is not king... Neither in inflationary cycle... Only in depression and recession cash is king.

[Talent]

Stagflation cash is not king... Neither in inflationary cycle... Only in depression and recession cash is king.

so what u suggest

[Talent]

interest rate will go up or not

[Sticw]

so what u suggest

Typically in stagflation properties actual do ok, so are defensive stocks. But if it doesn't turn out to be stagflation but recession then the property hold is one big risk of negative equity.

I'm just curious why the MAS and banks can hold on to the outstanding billions of mortgage payments... It's so sub prime like to me... Lol

[singlon]

US corporation needs Inflation.
This is a given

[mikotan]

Not likely nowadays if central banks keep printing and printing. And to aviod recession, interest rates will remain low.

[Talent]

Typically in stagflation properties actual do ok, so are defensive stocks. But if it doesn't turn out to be stagflation but recession then the property hold is one big risk of negative equity.

I'm just curious why the MAS and banks can hold on to the outstanding billions of mortgage payments... It's so sub prime like to me... Lol

so under what condition is stagflatioj

i think we will sure enter into recession + inflation
what do u call this

[debono]

so under what condition is stagflatioj

i think we will sure enter into recession + inflation
what do u call this

In this situation of recession + inflation, it is a double whammy for consumers....

[Sticw]

so under what condition is stagflatioj

i think we will sure enter into recession + inflation
what do u call this

You cannot have a recession and inflation at the same time.

Inflationary growth is economic growth (nominal terms at least).

Recession is when things fold and consolidate. Biz close, job loss etc. In such condition prices will not go up.

Perhaps you were support the view of a stagflation then. If that really the view then go defensive stocks then. But wait for it to collapse then buy, else you time when to short everything when the avalanche comes.

[debono]

You cannot have a recession and inflation at the same time.

Inflationary growth is economic growth (nominal terms at least).

Recession is when things fold and consolidate. Biz close, job loss etc. In such condition prices will not go up.

Perhaps you were support the view of a stagflation then. If that really the view then go defensive stocks then. But wait for it to collapse then buy, else you time when to short everything when the avalanche comes.

So is it time for us to buy blue chips.....?

[Sticw]

So is it time for us to buy blue chips.....?

Nope

[Talent]

Recession is when things fold and consolidate. Biz close, job loss etc. In such condition prices will not go up.

we are going to see biz collapse after 2yrs of covid destruction
many construction, f&b and leisure will close ..now is bottleneck ..cannot breathe time

and retrenchment will follow

yet prices are going up, because of cost due to covud
so we have inflation

so inflation further choke biz

so isn't inflation + recession = stagflation

[Niubee]

we are going to see biz collapse after 2yrs of covid destruction
many construction, f&b and leisure will close ..now is bottleneck ..cannot breathe time

and retrenchment will follow

yet prices are going up, because of cost due to covud
so we have inflation

so inflation further choke biz

so isn't inflation + recession = stagflation

Inflation yes.... but recession have not come yet !!!

Only when USA stock market burst... then it is recession.

[debono]

Nope

Then what do you recommend...?

[Sticw]

It's still very much a tech and bio med run. Energy related also joined in the game. This is happening in USA and likely some spillover into rest of the world.

So much printing... More and more protectionism amongst the big countries. Hope that actually brings back the cold war.

Market unlikely to collapse (until interest rate starts running up to quickly catch up with inflation).

But blue chips in sgx they are very sleepy and you should really get into them after a market collapse instead. For property sector, the price movement is typically 7 quarters behind the stock market in SG.

[cityhantam]

https://www.asianinvestor.net/article/ma...ion/473407
°

[cityhantam]

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[cityhantam]

°

[sgxin]

The high energy cost is having domino effect across many industries.
Beside the lower magnesium output, just read that even urea production is affected.
Without urea, diesel vehicles will not be able to meet the stringent emission standard.

Diesel exhaust fluid shortage threatens Korea’s supply chain
https://www.kedglobal.com/newsView/ked202111030023

[cityhantam]

°

[cityhantam]

【美国误判通胀现在“没招”了！ 100多艘集装箱货轮被迫堵在加州港口】

美国10月CPI数据连续第17个月上涨，10月CPI同比上涨6.2%，为1990年12月以来31年的最高水平。
同时，美国消费者信心指数也跌至66.8，创2011年来新低。

最新数据继续印证了美国通胀压力加剧的现状。

数据显示，美国物价飙升导致房屋、汽车、大件家庭耐用品的购买条件跌至数十年来的最低水平。
另有24%的美国家庭预计，自己的财务状况在11月会进一步恶化，这一比例仅次于2008年6月美国爆发金融危机时的水平。通胀加剧，以及各种物资缺货，让民众的生活成本大增。

10月CPI数据再次证明了美联储对通胀的短期性的判断是有问题的。

尽管从10月份美国总统拜登就已经下达总统令，宣布美国最大的两个港口洛杉矶港和长滩港将实行每天24小时、每周7天的营业模式运营，以解决港口货物拥堵问题，并让美国本土的货物运输卡车得以在交通不拥堵的夜间运送货物，增加消费品供应。

但是，似乎并没有什么用。到11月9日，总统令的效果堪称悲惨，港口拥堵再创历史最高纪录，111艘集装箱货轮被迫在加州两大港口等候，比10月21日的108艘的最高纪录又高出3艘。

美国不得不面对，通胀和供应链打结的情况将不是一个短期现象。造成这种情况的原因不只是疫情，而是长期以来，追求利润最大化的资本体系导致的投资不足，利益分配严重失衡。

在资本主导、且不受制衡的模式下，大企业不必增加投资就可以依靠垄断和金融市场获得更高的利润，谁还会辛苦工作呢？

就如海运公司那样，不必增加运力就能大发横财。港口公司不必解决拥堵就可以坐地起价并且大赚仓储延迟费。铁路公司不必增加货车班次就可以提高运费增加利润。

而独立卡车司机计件收费导致他们在空耗的等待中亏损严重，最后纷纷退出运营。一线劳动者加班加点、严重透支，但收益微薄，甚至亏损，所以没有动力。

大量岗位空缺与大量劳工退出就业市场同时并存的奇怪场景就是明证。

据美国劳工部当地时间12日公布的数据，9月美国辞职人数达到440万人，创历史新高。与此同时，美国就业市场空缺职位数量依然处于历史高位。

美国似乎已经失去了“黄金年代”那种埋头苦干、锐意创新的精神，更多的是科技巨头的急躁与概念炒作。
每个人都希望在大通胀之前，多积累一些现金和资产，但是却不知在自己变得更富有，资产价格上涨的同时，自己财富的购买力正在受到侵蚀。

“如果钱不用于提高生产力，印钞和发钱不会让我们变得更富有。”这是桥水创始人达利欧上周四敲响的“警钟”。
宋鸿兵表示，这要是放在正常的国家、正常的市场上，美国的经济和股市早就崩盘了。
所有的风险和最后的押宝都被集中到了美元市场，以美国为中心的金融市场上。没有它，美国的国债还有多少信用呢？这也是需要高度关注美元环流任何异动的原因。

而对于美国拥有的科技、军事、政治实力，以及基建计划则是一种长期的潜力和资源，美国需要时间和竞争的刺激来重整旗鼓，来纠正金融一家独大的错误。

但是，时间正是现在最缺乏的资源，而剩下更多的只是“刺激”。

11月16日，美国财政部长耶伦再次发出警告，她将在“未来一两天内”向国会更新财政部的现金流状况，并说明在政府耗尽现金前还有多长时间供国会议员提高或暂停债务限额。

耶伦说：“我们可能有能力度过12月3日，但之后的时间就不多了。”

继4800亿美元新国债之后，还有更大规模的美国国债将被抛向市场。随之而来的紧缩压力和反转风险还将加剧。

[debono]

It's still very much a tech and bio med run. Energy related also joined in the game. This is happening in USA and likely some spillover into rest of the world.

So much printing... More and more protectionism amongst the big countries. Hope that actually brings back the cold war.

Market unlikely to collapse (until interest rate starts running up to quickly catch up with inflation).

But blue chips in sgx they are very sleepy and you should really get into them after a market collapse instead. For property sector, the price movement is typically 7 quarters behind the stock market in SG.

OIC, a good explanation......

[cityhantam]

The workers are not happy!

Strikes Sweep Labor Market as Workers Flex New Leverage | WSJ

[cityhantam]

【完整版上集20211128】誤判通膨 萬物齊漲 民怨拜登 執政面臨難關 TVBS文茜的世界周報 20211128 X 富蘭克林‧國民的基金

[[[ForeverAlone]]]

Just now I saw MOM bragging again " claim unemployment remind stable "
what indirect means they put it like No much retrench or people been layoff recently.
I feel is BS yet again.

[Talent]

Just now I saw MOM bragging again " claim unemployment remind stable "
what indirect means they put it like No much retrench or people been layoff recently.
I feel is BS yet again.

it is a big lie

many of my students are unemployed
waiting anxiously for cert to get employed
but 2 days course can help meh?

[*天哥*]

Hold your breath, parabolic december is here !

[Talent]

Hold your breath, parabolic december is here !

up or down

[Sharexchange]

How to fight? Eat less?

[Sharexchange]

Just now I saw MOM bragging again " claim unemployment remind stable "
what indirect means they put it like No much retrench or people been layoff recently.
I feel is BS yet again.

Yes i heard ..MP 不要脸 say her 心心相连 upsklll lJ course had help singaporean better job vs 2019 pre covid