Now US market
#1

It is vy over value 

WB just sold 10b. But bought only 150m 
 

Time to be vigilant. Not sour grape. CEO n insider are also selling big time. Go google.
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#2

Hope next yr no mkt crash. 
Quite worrying so high Liao n no big correction. 
Always no big correction is worrying because the next dip is most likely a big crash. 

I think I guesstimate from chart next crash for S&P is around 50 % to 65%. 

I hv sell down stock. No a call to sell in case u call me sour grape. Just sharing only. Pls dyodd
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#3

One clue is Japanese market. Potential crash and will drag usa down. See the chart


Smile
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#4

The bull market is entering its 3rd year. Here’s what history says will happen next.
The S&P 500 could see a setback in the next 12 months as the bull market enters its third year: CFRA Research
By
Isabel Wang
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Last Updated: Oct. 14, 2024 at 4:19 p.m. ET
First Published: Oct. 14, 2024 at 1:41 p.m. ET

What’s in store for the bull market from here?
Photo: Getty Imag
U.S. stocks were kicking off their third year in the bull market with the S&P 500 scoring a fresh record on Monday — but history suggests investors need to be prepared for a potential setback in the coming 12 months.

Since 1947, all 11 bull markets that celebrated their second birthday experienced at least one decline of 5% or more in the subsequent 12 months, with some even turning into new bear markets, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

“The average return following the 11 bull markets [since 1947] that celebrated their second birthday was a mere 2%,” Stovall said in a Monday client note. “What’s more, all of them experienced a decline of 5% [in the next 12 months], while five endured selloffs in excess of 10% but less than 20%, and three succumbed to new bear markets.”


In Stovall’s view, the current high valuation of the U.S. stock market, especially large-cap stocks, is “concerning” as the bull market enters its third year.

The trailing price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 25 — the highest valuation for the second year of a bull market since World War II. That level is also 48% higher than the median second-year P/E for all bull markets since 1947, according to CFRA Research.

“P/E multiples typically shrank during the third year of the bull market, since earnings-per-share growth tended to accelerate and confirm the optimism implicit in the sharp price advances during the early years of bull markets,” Stovall noted.

To be sure, Wall Street analysts are expecting year-over-year earnings growth rates of 14.2%, 13.9% and 13.1% for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first and the second quarters of 2025, respectively, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet Research.
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