(27-03-2023, 11:31 AM)Sentinel Wrote: Previously, all those pork siew and smog jokes about China in front of American obnoxious senate and its retarded congress
I think now is payback time for him to go China and crack similar jokes about America to soothe the Chinese's anger
If LHL does not think China is the future, then he better don't waste Xi's time to go China
Xi has no time for just congratulatory handshakes, plenty of countries queuing up to shake Xi's hand
Can't be this LHL is so blind until he cannot see that his call to sanction Russia is slapping China's face, as both Putin and Xi had said: No limits relationship between the two and a momentous thing to happen not seen in a 100 years
So, LHL better wake up, or it will be very tough for all Sinkies now and in the future
He can't just think of himself, his family and his cronies
He better not
Naturally the truth of such a personal question can only be answered by PM Lee himself, but if we look at the timeline of events I would venture a guess roughly as follows:
Up to 2015 - LKY has always been a proponent of pulling in the US to participate in the affairs of East Asia and one would assume that LHL is more or less aligned with his father all the way until his death in 2015. I suspect the basic premise of this policy is the assumption it would take at least 30 - 50 years for the China to fully challenge the US world order and during this time it would be in Singapore's interest to get US influence in and then leverage on our longstanding relationship with US to be a de facto adviser / opinion leader in ASEAN to "defend" against China.
2016 August - US-SG relationship reached its pinnacle in 2016 which cumulated in a state banquet thrown for LHL by Obama in 2016. This is most likely also roughly the time in which US reached an agreement with Singapore in which the latter would attempt to rally ASEAN to the US camp to take on China using the South China sea dispute as a gateway. 2016 can also be described as the year in which CN-SG relations plunged rapidly in contrast to US-SG which was at its peak. The most obvious indication was LHL using the August 2016 NDP rally to make an aggressive point over SCS claiming that ASEAN must unite together to demand that China respect "international laws".
2016 November - The Terex incident marked the first instance in which China publicly rebuked Singapore on the pretext of its continued military relationship with Taiwan while still officially claiming to remain true to the "one China" policy. I believe this might also be the start when LHL and certain pro-US quarters within the ruling SG elite started to realize the seriousness of the situation.
2017 - By 2017 it was clear to Singapore that other than Vietnam and Philippines, all the remaining 7 ASEAN countries including other SCS claimants such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei had no intention to follow the Singapore led initiative to join US against China. Whether it is by personal choice to remain neutral or through pressures asserted by the Chinese, it would be very obvious by now that LHL had severely underestimated China's influence in ASEAN and overestimated US's and his own influence in ASEAN matters.
2018 - By then Duterte has already helmed Philippines for more than a year and it was plain obvious that his proclamations to abandon the SCS arbitration ruling to pursue closer CN-PH ties were true. Vietnam sensing that this was a lost cause immediately did a 180 degree turn and cozied up with China and acted like there were never any territory disputes in the first place. By this time US-SG relationship has also taken a beating with Trump as president and he did not seem to be friendly to SG either. Thus 2018 marks the year in which Singapore stands isolated, neglected by the US and betrayed by PH / VN, standing alone facing the angry panda over an issue that didn't even have anything to do with SG in the first place.
2019 - I believe this is the year in which CN-SG relations reached turning point and LHL more or less gave up on his previous geopolitical policy. The SCS dispute was abandoned by LHL and SG started to reposition itself as a valuable coordinator to reach a CN-ASEAN SCS code of conduct. However, it is also noteworthy that there remains a sizable number of ruling elites who seem adamant that not all is lost and their chief argument is along the lines that this setback is temporary and will be fixed once Trump leaves office.
2020 - Singapore duly made use of the celebrations for 30th anniversary of CN-SG diplomatic relations to constantly reaffirm our close ties with China. By this time, Singapore is constantly arguing against the global trend in protectionism and is more or less completely aligned with China against the US Trump administration in economic matters.
2020 (Nov) - Biden won the election and many of the pro-US elites and intellectuals in Singapore started to fantasize that Biden would fix all of Trump's ills and everything would be well again. LHL released a test balloon to get a sense of how things are by sending a congratulatory message to Biden emphasizing that there are many "friends" in East Asia in need of US leadership and invited US to "stay engaged" in Asia Pacific.
2021 - Unfortunately for the pro-US people, Biden turned out to be no different from Trump. Although he was rhetorically less aggressive than Trump, he more or less continued most of Trump's protectionist policies. By this time China's integration with ASEAN was already far greater than it was in 2016 and US presence here has been severely diminished under Trump. Yet Biden showed no real interest to re-engage beyond perfunctory talk talk. This probably extinguished any last hopes of return to the past for LHL and he went full throttle in his pivot towards China in reality while maintaining neutrality as an official national foreign policy. Interestingly for whatever speculated reason, Singapore was not invited to the Democracy Summit hosted by the US.
2022 - 2023 March - What's there to say? LHL aggressively urged his counterparts in US, Australia and Europe to respect China and recognize that she has an important role to play in world affairs. I think it is also fair to say now that most of the ruling elite in our government has woken up their idea and other than a few inconsequential die hards have reached the conclusion that US is the past and China is the future. Our policy is now very clear, maintain official neutrality, de facto pivot to China, re-stablish our standing in ASEAN as the lead coordinator for CN-ASEAN relations and squeeze out whatever that is left of the US influence to put us in a better position when negotiating with China.
As of now LHL is in China for a relatively long visit and those who are interested can go watch his interview with CGTN yesterday. If you don't watch the interview and the name, his answers can just as easily pass for any other pro-China ASEAN leader; definitely a complete U-turn compared to what he said in 2016.