06-09-2023, 02:31 PM
My view on the PE results is,
My view is not becos TM is very popular. Although some opposition supporters find him more likeable than certain other PAP members.
My view is because 99% of pro-opposition indians voters and 90% of pro-opposition malay voters will switch camp to support the PAP/or establishment candidate if the contest is a Chinese opposition candidate versus a PAP/or establishment minority candidate.
That means the PAP/establishment minority candidate already secured about 23% of the votes. And for chinese voters there are about 35% to 40% of Chinese voters that are very solid PAP supporters, and these 35% to 40% of Chinese voters will always vote for PAP even if PAP fielded an indian or malay or Malaysia-born candidate.
Hence add the estimated 23% minority votes to the 35% to 40% chinese PAP solid supporters, already add up to about 60%.
Hence my view is even if field the Malaysia-born Puthuchery against George Goh or Jamus Lim, Puthuchery will also win.
That is why in the 2020 GE(when opposition enjoying a very upturn swing in that 2020 GE) why a non-office holder and only simple MP Muralli one on one contest versus CSJ, and yet Muralli scored a very resounding win of about 60%.
Because my view is 90% of the Bukit Batok indian/malay Pro-opposition supporters also switch camp to support PAP candidate Muralli, then add the original 35% to 40% chinese PAP solid supporters, Muralli got about 60% of votes against CSJ in the 2020 GE
My view is not becos TM is very popular. Although some opposition supporters find him more likeable than certain other PAP members.
My view is because 99% of pro-opposition indians voters and 90% of pro-opposition malay voters will switch camp to support the PAP/or establishment candidate if the contest is a Chinese opposition candidate versus a PAP/or establishment minority candidate.
That means the PAP/establishment minority candidate already secured about 23% of the votes. And for chinese voters there are about 35% to 40% of Chinese voters that are very solid PAP supporters, and these 35% to 40% of Chinese voters will always vote for PAP even if PAP fielded an indian or malay or Malaysia-born candidate.
Hence add the estimated 23% minority votes to the 35% to 40% chinese PAP solid supporters, already add up to about 60%.
Hence my view is even if field the Malaysia-born Puthuchery against George Goh or Jamus Lim, Puthuchery will also win.
That is why in the 2020 GE(when opposition enjoying a very upturn swing in that 2020 GE) why a non-office holder and only simple MP Muralli one on one contest versus CSJ, and yet Muralli scored a very resounding win of about 60%.
Because my view is 90% of the Bukit Batok indian/malay Pro-opposition supporters also switch camp to support PAP candidate Muralli, then add the original 35% to 40% chinese PAP solid supporters, Muralli got about 60% of votes against CSJ in the 2020 GE