28-01-2024, 09:30 AM
Unlike Russia, China is an export depend economy and its largest export markets are US and Europe.
For China to ramp up consumption to compensate for these 2 markets is impossible with an ageing population and shrinking workforce.
In the last 7 years the west reconfigured it supply chain so that China is not on a critical link. This will continue in the few years to cut dependence on China.
If you look at the war in Ukraine, Russia expected the smaller and weaker state to capitulate in a few days. Russia is considered 3rd most powerful military state in the world and Ukraine military spending is only half of Thailand in 2010-2019 prior to the war. But once it is quickly equipped with Western weapons and some training it could hold off Russia. Taiwan has been trained on advanced weapons and much better equipped arm forces and readiness.
If you see the mass protests in China after 2 years of Zero Covid, it shows that once economic hardship sets in social order disappears.
Taiwan going back to China does not change the dynamics of the geo-political power game much. However, it is different if China decides to take Taiwan by force. Doing so actually will deeply destroy and damage China economically and politically even if they succeed.
1. It will motivate implementation of sanctions to cut China off global trade especially with big players like EU and US.
2. The west and its Asian alliance Japan and Sm Korea collectively control 80% of global investment flows.
3. Economic hardship will undermine social order in China. Already we Chuna economic problems mounting due to it own missteps ...and some moderate moves by the west raising tariffs. Imagine what happens when there is severe sanctions.
4. Even if China can invade it won't be easy and will suffer heavy losses and many Chinese will die in process and destroy the legitimacy of the CCP.
Given the above, I believe the West is secretly very happy with Xi's Taiwan policies. He constantly play the military card and he is easily manipulated to use military threat. These motivates the Taiwanese to better prepare themselves for the fight. For example when Pelosi visited Taiwan, China became very angry and conducted military exercises. Feeling threatened few weeks later Taiwan sign a contract to buy kore arms from US and increase the size of the defense budget.
A wise leader of China would cleverly adopt a friendly stance towards Taiwan first to encourage economic cooperation first. Later increase economic integration and gradually unify them once the Taiwanese become confident of the trust. However the opposite is being done now and Taiwanese distrust for CCP is at highest.
CIA internal report said assessed that Xi leadership of China is very favorable to US geopolitical power due to his lack of political savvy.
Yes some.consider CIA an evil organisation that has topple many govts and countries but its job is to protect American interests.
For China to ramp up consumption to compensate for these 2 markets is impossible with an ageing population and shrinking workforce.
In the last 7 years the west reconfigured it supply chain so that China is not on a critical link. This will continue in the few years to cut dependence on China.
If you look at the war in Ukraine, Russia expected the smaller and weaker state to capitulate in a few days. Russia is considered 3rd most powerful military state in the world and Ukraine military spending is only half of Thailand in 2010-2019 prior to the war. But once it is quickly equipped with Western weapons and some training it could hold off Russia. Taiwan has been trained on advanced weapons and much better equipped arm forces and readiness.
If you see the mass protests in China after 2 years of Zero Covid, it shows that once economic hardship sets in social order disappears.
Taiwan going back to China does not change the dynamics of the geo-political power game much. However, it is different if China decides to take Taiwan by force. Doing so actually will deeply destroy and damage China economically and politically even if they succeed.
1. It will motivate implementation of sanctions to cut China off global trade especially with big players like EU and US.
2. The west and its Asian alliance Japan and Sm Korea collectively control 80% of global investment flows.
3. Economic hardship will undermine social order in China. Already we Chuna economic problems mounting due to it own missteps ...and some moderate moves by the west raising tariffs. Imagine what happens when there is severe sanctions.
4. Even if China can invade it won't be easy and will suffer heavy losses and many Chinese will die in process and destroy the legitimacy of the CCP.
Given the above, I believe the West is secretly very happy with Xi's Taiwan policies. He constantly play the military card and he is easily manipulated to use military threat. These motivates the Taiwanese to better prepare themselves for the fight. For example when Pelosi visited Taiwan, China became very angry and conducted military exercises. Feeling threatened few weeks later Taiwan sign a contract to buy kore arms from US and increase the size of the defense budget.
A wise leader of China would cleverly adopt a friendly stance towards Taiwan first to encourage economic cooperation first. Later increase economic integration and gradually unify them once the Taiwanese become confident of the trust. However the opposite is being done now and Taiwanese distrust for CCP is at highest.
CIA internal report said assessed that Xi leadership of China is very favorable to US geopolitical power due to his lack of political savvy.
Yes some.consider CIA an evil organisation that has topple many govts and countries but its job is to protect American interests.