02-08-2024, 06:39 PM
Below is a screen capture of what I have been looking at.
Today there was a 2000pt drop of Nikkei.
2000pts is more than 5% in kne day. There are many problems with Japan unstable currency, weak economy and over valued market - it had a multi yr bull run with no fundamentals - just easy monetary policies legacy of Abenomics.
Now let's move to US market. I have been shorting various overvalued stocks like Nvidia and the Nasdaq. These are just trades to make some pocket money but in doing so I observe the US market more closely....
1. Wild swings of stocks after earnings sometimes can drop 5% the shortly after that rise 5% without rhyme or reason.
2. Last Yr inflation was high market sold off because rate cut delayed. Now economiic data come it that favors more and faster rate cuts. By right, market should cheer this but go down instead.
3. Look carefully at the Yuan USD rate just 1 week ago it was 7.28....now it move quickly down to 7.20...today alone a 0.40% move...what is going on?
4. 2 days ago Nvida plunged 10% in one day recover the crash. It shows that most of the trading is by specilative money.
To make a long story short :
1. Unlike what people had thought. The data that cause the FED to cut rates is also showing signs of cracks in US economy
2. By tbe time the Fed cut rates it is too latevto reverse an coming slowdown/recession.
3. The fall in revenues of iconic companies like McDonald and Nike shows that consumer is cutting back and something is wrong.
4. The high volatility of. stocks show high level.of specilative money that can shift out.
For traders like me, I see chance to short and make quick money in tbe situation.
But for investors who don't plan to hold for the long haul...this is looks like last chance to get out before losses become substantial.
All my experience in the market points to big problems ahead for US markets ..
My warming on Nikkei and Japan was days before the massive plunge today and it does not look like the selloff is over for Japan still more to come
Today there was a 2000pt drop of Nikkei.
2000pts is more than 5% in kne day. There are many problems with Japan unstable currency, weak economy and over valued market - it had a multi yr bull run with no fundamentals - just easy monetary policies legacy of Abenomics.
Now let's move to US market. I have been shorting various overvalued stocks like Nvidia and the Nasdaq. These are just trades to make some pocket money but in doing so I observe the US market more closely....
1. Wild swings of stocks after earnings sometimes can drop 5% the shortly after that rise 5% without rhyme or reason.
2. Last Yr inflation was high market sold off because rate cut delayed. Now economiic data come it that favors more and faster rate cuts. By right, market should cheer this but go down instead.
3. Look carefully at the Yuan USD rate just 1 week ago it was 7.28....now it move quickly down to 7.20...today alone a 0.40% move...what is going on?
4. 2 days ago Nvida plunged 10% in one day recover the crash. It shows that most of the trading is by specilative money.
To make a long story short :
1. Unlike what people had thought. The data that cause the FED to cut rates is also showing signs of cracks in US economy
2. By tbe time the Fed cut rates it is too latevto reverse an coming slowdown/recession.
3. The fall in revenues of iconic companies like McDonald and Nike shows that consumer is cutting back and something is wrong.
4. The high volatility of. stocks show high level.of specilative money that can shift out.
For traders like me, I see chance to short and make quick money in tbe situation.
But for investors who don't plan to hold for the long haul...this is looks like last chance to get out before losses become substantial.
All my experience in the market points to big problems ahead for US markets ..
My warming on Nikkei and Japan was days before the massive plunge today and it does not look like the selloff is over for Japan still more to come