WATCH: How will the outcome of the US election on Nov 5 affect Asia? Will America's allies in the region have to choose between the US and China? What about the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine?
CNA explains:
https://youtu.be/Ch7Avg-RoVI
The outcome of the US election on November 5th will have significant implications for Asia, impacting trade, security, and geopolitical dynamics. While both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, share a common ground in their approach to China, their strategies differ in their intensity and focus.
Trade Policies and Tariffs
Both Harris and Trump are expected to maintain the current trend of rising trade restrictions and strategic competition with China, but their approaches differ[2].
- Harris: Will pursue a more targeted approach to competition with China, focusing on national security and domestic jobs. This might involve less use of blunt policy tools like blanket tariffs and sanctions[2].
- Trump: Is likely to adopt a broader, more aggressive approach, potentially leading to a more escalatory and disruptive phase in US-China competition. This could involve expanding trade and technology controls, potentially targeting Southeast Asian countries for trade-related violations[2].
Regardless of who wins, intensified trade warfare could see China wield its tools more frequently and forcefully, with negative impacts on third countries, companies, and global supply chains[2].
US-China Rivalry
The intensifying rivalry between the US and China presents both opportunities and risks for Southeast Asia[3].
- Harris: Is likely to continue the Biden administration's approach of strengthening alliances in the Indo-Pacific, which could lead to increased US engagement in regional security issues, particularly in the South China Sea[3].
- Trump: Could compound uncertainty over longstanding security flashpoints in East Asia, such as the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula, and the South China Sea[2].
Southeast Asian nations could face increasing pressure to align with one side or the other, potentially disrupting their highly integrated supply chains[3].
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
A change in US administration could significantly influence the flow of FDI into Southeast Asia[3].
- Harris: Is likely to foster stronger investment ties with Southeast Asia, particularly in tech-savvy nations like Singapore and Malaysia, as well as countries with large populations and rising consumer markets like Indonesia and Vietnam[3].
- Trump: Might incentivize companies to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, leading to a slowdown in FDI for Southeast Asia[3].
Regulatory changes in the US could reshape investment patterns, with multinational companies reassessing their strategies for outsourcing and manufacturing in Southeast Asia[3].
Regional Security
The US election outcome will impact regional security, particularly in the context of the US-China rivalry[2].
- Harris: Is likely to maintain the current state of play, with a focus on strengthening alliances and maintaining a security presence in the region[2].
- Trump: Could lead to a wider set of scenarios, ranging from serious escalation to another attempt at engagement, particularly in the case of the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait[2].
Southeast Asian governments generally prefer a US administration that does not escalate tensions with China, but they also want the US to maintain a security presence in the region, especially in the South China Sea[2].
Overall Impact
The US election outcome will have a significant impact on the trade, business, and security environment in Asia. Both candidates will increase geopolitical tensions and put additional pressure on businesses in a region with vibrant opportunities and increasingly complicated supply chains[2].
Conclusion
The US election will have a profound impact on Asia, with both candidates likely to increase geopolitical tensions and pressure on businesses in the region. The outcome will shape trade policies, US-China rivalry, foreign direct investment, and regional security dynamics. Southeast Asian nations will need to navigate these complex challenges, balancing their relationships with the US and China while seeking to maintain their economic growth and regional stability.
Don't really care SGX all banks report good results...Oil price come down and war ends.