SG Talk

Kudos to Master Leong for an honest review of his 2024 performance.

For me Master Leong did many things right buying Sea Ltd and Meta selling for 40-60% gains. Buying China banks for high dividends. Buying Ping An and Link REITs. Every purchase is profitable!..and solid long term picks

He has only one fault he likes to predict. Predictions such as Telsa is overvalued and will drop. Bitcoin about to collapse. Alibaba about to go up etc. Predictions are incompatible with "value investing" that he practices. Investors use value investing precisely because markets cannot be predicted in the short run - if you can predict you don't need value investing.

You and him, who fared better?

(14-12-2024, 09:45 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Kudos to Master Leong for an honest review of his 2024 performance.

For me Master Leong did many things right buying Sea Ltd and Meta selling for 40-60% gains. Buying China banks for high dividends. Buying Ping An and Link REITs. Every purchase is profitable!..and solid long term picks

He has only one fault he likes to predict. Predictions such as Telsa is overvalued and will drop. Bitcoin about to collapse. Alibaba about to go up etc. Predictions are incompatible with "value investing" that he practices. Investors use value investing precisely because markets cannot be predicted in the short run - if you can predict you don't need value investing.

why his prediction cannot work for Alibaba but can work for Sea, Meta,Ping An ?

(14-12-2024, 09:57 PM)WhatDoYouThink! Wrote: [ -> ]You and him, who fared better?

Who has nicer titties? 

Isn't it ironical that the person who says that "markets cannot be predicted in the short run" is doing exactly that.

(14-12-2024, 09:45 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Kudos to Master Leong for an honest review of his 2024 performance.

For me Master Leong did many things right buying Sea Ltd and Meta selling for 40-60% gains. Buying China banks for high dividends. Buying Ping An and Link REITs. Every purchase is profitable!..and solid long term picks

He has only one fault he likes to predict. Predictions such as Telsa is overvalued and will drop. Bitcoin about to collapse. Alibaba about to go up etc. Predictions are incompatible with "value investing" that he practices. Investors use value investing precisely because markets cannot be predicted in the short run - if you can predict you don't need value investing.

His face look like that passes away ah Meng orangutan at the zoological garden. 

He so smart can predict??? When he is gg to die he also so don’t know. Want to tell people when he know stock mkt going to soar.

Nothing better to do. Call him go help wash Rochor canal.

Predicting the market is a tough job shd leave it to the smartest ppl.

(14-12-2024, 10:18 PM)forum456 Wrote: [ -> ]why his prediction cannot work for Alibaba but can work for Sea, Meta,Ping An ?

There are many confusions over logic and some of it my fault because I did not state what mean clearly - my apologies. I will address everyone one'questions at one go.

I will give some examples to illustrate.

What I meant to say was

Quote:"Value investing cannot be used to predict when some stock will go up or go down"

Of course for value investing to work, stocks. selected by value investors have to eventually go up with a certain level of probability - it's not a sure win. But even for stocks that go up "when" this happen is unknown.

So when Master Leong state:

Alibaba is undervalued..
Tesla is overvalued.

He is correct to say that based on value investing metrics  but incorect to say because of the above Alibaba will go up more than Tesla in 12 months....a prediction he made at the beginning of 2024. 

There is nothing in value investing to say when Alibaba & Telsa  will move to it's fair value . That is not part of value investing. Studies have shown individual stocks have remained overvalued or undervalued  for years.  Studies by Greenblatt et al showed that a basket ( not single) of undervalued.stiocks fulfilling as set of metric held over. 5(?)yrs is superior to a basket of overvalued stocks based on historic data ..but for shorter periods of a year the results are mixed. There are also long stretches of exceptions to this results. Buffett gave up all his investments in the 1960s because stocks became overvalued for more than a decade and he ran out of things to buy. He waited a few years then came back only in the 70s after the market crashed.

Buffett knows all this and famously said 

'The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

This is also one of reason why many value begunner investors give up. Often they apply the method incorrecly  and when they do so correctly, they lack the patience to wait it out. Sometimes they over estimate their skills and bet too big without diversification thinking value investing is an exact science.

Now back to Forum456 qn

(14-12-2024, 10:18 PM)forum456 Wrote: [ -> ]why his prediction cannot work for Alibaba but can work for Sea, Meta,Ping An ?

In value investing you pick stocks to don't predict.
After you pick them not every stock eventually goes up and for those that go up to to you won't know when. Sea and Meta went up shortly after Master Leong selected them. It could be due to their listing in US market and liquidity flowed back into that market. Value investing does not anticipate liquidity nor do practitioners believe it is predictable. Buffett :" I cant predict economy or in interest rates'.

Alibaba is an individual stock. Supposed Master Leong calculation is correct and it is undervalued. When and whether it goes up is not a certainty.

(14-12-2024, 10:42 PM)Blasterlord2 Wrote: [ -> ]Isn't it ironical that the person who says that "markets cannot be predicted in the short run" is doing exactly that.

Sorry for not being clear. What I meant is market cannot be predicted in the short run by value investing. Value investing can say a market is undervalued and it continues to go down. Diehard value investors to justify their own  belief that value investing is the best will say "nobody can predict" the short term movements of the market.

I am not a hardcore value investor. I use very tool I can find test it using data and if it works I use it. Value investing is just one of the tool I use. I trade short term movements  in HSI. My trading stats is stable with 52% win and 2:1 payout ratio.

Hope this clarifies what I do and what value investing is supposed to be.

(15-12-2024, 02:51 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Now back to Forum456 qn



In value investing you pick stocks to don't predict.
After you pick them not every stock eventually goes up and for those that go up to to you won't know when. Sea and Meta went up shortly after Master Leong selected them. It could be due to their listing in US market and liquidity flowed back into that market. Value investing does not anticipate liquidity nor do practitioners believe it is predictable. Buffett :" I cant predict economy or in interest rates'.

Alibaba is an individual stock. Supposed Master Leong calculation is correct and it is undervalued. When and whether it goes up is not a certainty.

how can an under valued stock like Alibaba goes up ?

Alibaba may not be undervalued online sales unpredictable

(15-12-2024, 10:06 AM)forum456 Wrote: [ -> ]how can an under valued stock like Alibaba goes up ?

Lets assume Alibaba us undervalued.

There are several ways for it to happen

1. International investors change their view of China andbstart buying. This is the fastest way.

2. Company accumilate cash and use it do do share biy backs.

3. Company starts giving dividends and raising it over time.

4. Activate mainland Chinese funds and investors to channel pension funds and personal savings to invest in Chinese stocks. 

Only (2) was in play in 2024. (4) to a lesser extent the southvound stock connect was activated resukting in mainland funds being abke to buy Alibaba.

Alibaba actually rose 16% in 2024 due to above. 

The thing is there are other options like Meituan and Xiaomi etc for mainland investors. These stocks are actually growing. For international investors Tencent and Lenovo are more global and have better growth.

(15-12-2024, 10:56 AM)Cmpunk Wrote: [ -> ]Alibaba may not be undervalued online sales unpredictable

Alibaba is so big it js hard to  grow and there is perpetual competition.

Like major US tech firm Amazon, the growth vane from Amazon Cloud not Amazon e commerce. This remains the single best growth area for Alibaba but because slowdown in Chuna economy demand for cloud services is slow. But if what happen elsewhere is anything to go by the trend for businesses towards cloud based solutions has tremendous potential.

International sales growth can compensate for domestic slowdown so the ecommerce should be stable.

JD probably as a better hold on the market given its model. The CapEx is lower which means the cash buildup is faster.

(15-12-2024, 11:11 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Only (2) was in play in 2024. (4) to a lesser extent the southvound stock connect was activated resukting in mainland funds being abke to buy Alibaba.

Alibaba actually rose 16% in 2024 due to above. 

The thing is there are other options like Meituan and Xiaomi etc for mainland investors. These stocks are actually growing. For international investors Tencent and Lenovo are more global and have better growth.

so it has nothing to do with ML prediction because he picked the wrong stock like Alibaba .
once he picks the wrong stock, it will go down even if he does not predict.

must first pick the right stock and then predict.
not first pick the wrong stock and then predict.

(15-12-2024, 02:59 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Sorry for not being clear. What I meant is market cannot be predicted in the short run by value investing. Value investing can say a market is undervalued and it continues to go down. Diehard value investors to justify their own  belief that value investing is the best will say "nobody can predict" the short term movements of the market.

I am not a hardcore value investor. I use very tool I can find test it using data and if it works I use it. Value investing is just one of the tool I use. I trade short term movements  in HSI. My trading stats is stable with 52% win and 2:1 payout ratio.

Hope this clarifies what I do and what value investing is supposed to be.

That's an oxymoron.

Value investors are in it for the long term and they do not predict nor anticipate short term moves.  You don't even know what value investing is.

https://youtu.be/OWLQlwXQiQQ?si=OnMQMYKI_PJUq-Cd

another one

Ah butt who posted his video here to create a joke out of ML

(21-12-2024, 12:05 PM)WhatDoYouThink! Wrote: [ -> ]https://youtu.be/OWLQlwXQiQQ?si=OnMQMYKI_PJUq-Cd

another one

This flipper going to post he profited 100K

(21-12-2024, 12:55 PM)Cmpunk Wrote: [ -> ]This flipper going to post he profited 100K

https://youtu.be/1wTtcdZRfYo?si=GDjyYcqGwWVRuzYA