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Full Version: How India and its South Asian Neighbours Fared During the US-China Trade War
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Sanjay Kathuria and T.G. Srinivasan
4 HOURS AGO


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The US raised import tariffs from an average of 3.8% in mid-2018, to a peak average of 21% in mid-2019. China retaliated by raising average tariffs on US imports from 7.2% to almost 22% during the same period. These tariffs have largely remained in place on both sides. Besides tariff actions, an additional 200 Chinese companies such as Huawei were slapped with US export controls.

The Biden administration, which took office in January 2021, not only retained the high tariffs, but imposed further trade restrictions against China by adding to the “Chinese entities list” with whom the US persons and firms cannot have business dealings without a license. It also prohibited US investments in 59 Chinese entities that are involved in “defence and surveillance technology.”

The trade war provides a “natural experiment” (in this case, a dramatic change in economic policy targeted at one country) to gauge the readiness of next-in-line countries to become global manufacturing powerhouses. The trade war was expected to divert trade from China to other exporting countries, especially those that competed strongly with China for the US market.

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we compare the data for imports of manufactured goods in 2017, before the trade war started, to 2019, the year in which the full impact of the war was felt. We do not include 2020 data, since this is complicated by the impact of the pandemic.

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Our results show that, contrary to expectations, India’s gains from trade diversion in manufactures over 2017-19 were only US$1.2 billion, while Bangladesh’s were only US$390 million. Pakistan’s gains were as low as US$80 million. Vietnam, on the other hand, gained a much larger US$8.5 billion.

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India has more diversified exports than Vietnam’s, and a much greater overlap than Vietnam with the Chinese export basket to the US – hence, the prior was that India should have gained more than Vietnam from trade diversion in manufactures.

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The results were not flattering to India and Bangladesh, the biggest South Asian exporters.


Much better to read full article here: https://thewire.in/trade/how-india-and-i...-trade-war