29-04-2022, 07:16 AM
11,353 new cases were added on 4/28.
It is like this: ∑11353*[1.8^(n/3)]=10%*23000000,n=1 to x, then x=? The answer is 18, and 11353*1.8^(12/3)≈380000. Among them, 1.8 is the Rt value, 3 is the Omicron incubation period, and 10% is the infection rate when a high point occurs in a neighboring country.
Therefore, I estimate that the high point of the whole Taiwan will appear in 18 days, that is, on May 16, when the daily increase will reach 300,000. If you convert the population ratio of South Korea to Taiwan, you can get similar numbers, because their high point is 600,000.
https://www.appledaily.com.tw/forum/2022...E2L2Z2AE4/
It is like this: ∑11353*[1.8^(n/3)]=10%*23000000,n=1 to x, then x=? The answer is 18, and 11353*1.8^(12/3)≈380000. Among them, 1.8 is the Rt value, 3 is the Omicron incubation period, and 10% is the infection rate when a high point occurs in a neighboring country.
Therefore, I estimate that the high point of the whole Taiwan will appear in 18 days, that is, on May 16, when the daily increase will reach 300,000. If you convert the population ratio of South Korea to Taiwan, you can get similar numbers, because their high point is 600,000.
https://www.appledaily.com.tw/forum/2022...E2L2Z2AE4/