SG Talk

So how about Monday?   Another Black Monday?

Quote:Beginning on October 14, a number of markets began incurring large daily losses. On October 16, the rolling sell-offs coincided with an event known as “triple witching,” which describes the circumstances when monthly expirations of options and futures contracts occurred on the same day. By the end of the trading day on October 16, which was a Friday, the DJIA had lost 4.6 percent.
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/es...%20percent.

Lets look at the biggest interest rate crisis in history, ie 1980

Paul Volker was Fed Chairman in 1979 during Jimmy Carter's final year before Ronald Reagan succeeded as  President. Volker began raising interest rates to tame runaway inflation that had peaked at nearly 15% by March 1980. To beat inflation Volker raised rates to an all time high of 20% by June 1981, throwing America into a very deep recession unseen since the great depression on the 1930s. The mood was sombre and the masses swore they would never get to buy a house again.

But by Aug 1982 as the inflation monster was finally defeated, the stock market started to soar. By 1984, the mood was jubilant and Reagan was reelected.

In 1980, Dow was between 800 to 1000 points. By 1985, it topped 1500 and by 1990, reached nearly 3000. The bull run continued for another 10 years to reach a whopping 15,000 before bursting.

What could be happening now is that the Dems are preparing for Nov 2024 to battle a resurgent Trump, and tolerating some pain for now. But not too much to the extent riots break out on the streets where Biden has to activate the National Guards across America.

(19-06-2022, 02:52 PM)teaserteam Wrote: [ -> ]So how about Monday?   Another Black Monday?

The market is still very bearish.  It will continue to go down as there was no sign of the bottom yet.  Don't think there will be a black Monday as they now have circuit breakers that will limit the fall.   It is anybody's guess when the market will recover.  Some said 2023; others said now.   The market might find a temporary bottom soon.

Dow Futures and almost all Asian stock market fell more than 1% this afternoon. Are they anticipating blood bath tonight at the US market?

(22-06-2022, 05:37 PM)teaserteam Wrote: [ -> ]Dow Futures and almost all Asian stock market fell more than 1% this afternoon. Are they anticipating blood bath tonight at the US market?

world market runs like a casino
there are winners and loser
and the market will never stay the same

that why US got depression before
and it is not gonna to be the last

something goes up must come down

(19-06-2022, 06:08 PM)revealer Wrote: [ -> ]The market is still very bearish.  It will continue to go down as there was no sign of the bottom yet.  Don't think there will be a black Monday as they now have circuit breakers that will limit the fall.   It is anybody's guess when the market will recover.  Some said 2023; others said now.   The market might find a temporary bottom soon.

Dont be so bearish. This down wave showed us that the last handle was MIA? Now we are still back into Cup formation. 

山穷水尽疑无路，柳暗花明又一村。
人还在，希望还在。

US markets are very strong lately.  It kept going up for the last few days.  You think they would continue to go up to cover the candlestick gap?

(24-06-2022, 10:21 AM)teaserteam Wrote: [ -> ]US markets are very strong lately.  It kept going up for the last few days.  You think they would continue to go up to cover the candlestick gap?

Has the US markets gone up because of bad news all over ther place?

Commodity prices, corns, wheats, soyabeans etc suddenly fell more than 20% from their highs. Oil also falling. Do you think the US inflation is over and the stock rising again?

The market has been planned to cover the gaps. It might just continue to cover the other gap. Likely to be another dead cat bounce again unless Fed can withdraw or lighten its monetary policies.

(26-06-2022, 08:53 AM)revealer Wrote: [ -> ]The market has been planned to cover the gaps.  It might just continue to cover the other gap.  Likely to be another dead cat bounce again unless Fed can withdraw or lighten its monetary policies.

On the positive side, these gap coverings, ie large volumes of short coverings & institutional unwinding of opex towards the end of the quarter, remove volatility in markets. Typically when vix drift downward, a base is formed to support upward stocks movement. For the immediate term, at least, there could be a relief rally through to early next month when the Fed meet again. On the macro front, last week's rebound was fueled by a slew of downbeat numbers portending a looming recession, turning bad news into good news. Similarly, sentiments could quickly flip from expectations of rate hikes to rate slash.

(26-06-2022, 08:53 AM)revealer Wrote: [ -> ]The market has been planned to cover the gaps. It might just continue to cover the other gap. Likely to be another dead cat bounce again unless Fed can withdraw or lighten its monetary policies.

The charts are showing a good probability that DOW would want to cover the leftover gap sometime this or next week before the FOMC meeting on 27 July. After that, it would go back down to cover the other candlestick gap as shown




https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/202...jumpspot15

(28-06-2022, 09:31 AM)revealer Wrote: [ -> ]The charts are showing a good probability that DOW would want to cover the leftover gap sometime this or next week before the FOMC meeting on 27 July. After that, it would go back down to cover the other candlestick gap as shown

DOW made attempt last night but failed to cover the top candlestick gap. Here is the reason why

https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/202...jumpspot16

DOW made attempt but failed the cover the upper candlestick gap. Here is the reason why

https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/202...jumpspot16

I have already warned.
Dont listen… Obeegood….
My strength is seeing down wave…

(29-06-2022, 08:00 AM)RiseofAsia Wrote: [ -> ]I have already warned.
Dont listen… Obeegood….
My strength is seeing down wave…

How to warn when you are using DOW cash chart,  a wrong chart.   You can expect economic figures to be bad using charts?   You must be a genius.  Wave countings?  Forget about it;  always wrong one.

(18-06-2022, 09:32 AM)simpleman Wrote: [ -> ]So many people warned about printing money out of thin air eversince the GFC. It devalues the dollar, creating the "inflation" phenomenon. But the fed, with the blessings of the ruling class, kept kicking the can down the road because of political expedience. 

Powell was nominated by Trump. Renominated by Biden for a second term. The Senate confirmed his appointment. 

If what you said is true that US's printing money devalues the dollar and create inflation.  How do you explain that the US's dollar has been quite strong and getting stronger today and its inflation rate has been below 3% for the last 14 years since the US started "printing money" in 2008?   

Must find out why first before throwing out such unsubstantiated remarks

(29-06-2022, 09:11 AM)teaserteam Wrote: [ -> ]If what you said is true that US's printing money devalues the dollar and create inflation.  How do you explain that the US's dollar has been quite strong and getting stronger today and its inflation rate has been below 3% for the last 14 years since the US started "printing money" in 2008?   

Must find out why first before throwing out such unsubstantiated remarks

True. When Mr. Bernanke started printing money in 2008, I mistook that QEs would devalue dollar, cause hyperinflation and the market would continue to fall.. for this, I missed the market rally completely thereafter.

Unfortunately, many people, especially those pro-CCP, are still having such thinking today. Not sure if they are ignorant or pretend to ignore the concreted results even after so many years and after many countries have been practising QEs.

Wow. Stock market start lelong Liao. Dow future just dropped off the cliff. More than 1%

(30-06-2022, 03:22 PM)teaserteam Wrote: [ -> ]Wow. Stock market start lelong Liao. Dow future just dropped off the cliff. More than 1%

skyjuice has just updated his chart. He expected a new bottom to be created before covering gap 2 that was left uncovered the last time.



https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/202...jumpspot17

The US market went up just after all the bad economic news came out. Think the market players are starting a bear rally hoping Fed would slacken the QT or the rate hikes. This is just another wishful thinking after the market has been down for quite some time. It will head down after the rally is over.