SG Talk

can us prosperous and the rest of world goes into deep recession with Powell's magic rate hikes?

with
$3 trillion asset under mangement in sg

https://www.asianinvestor.net/article/as...ion/470753

https://www.chinapress.com.my/20221006/%...%e5%bc%ba/

usd against sgd edge up ahead of later job data

USD/SGD - US Dollar Singapore Dollar
Real-time FX

1.4310
+0.0020(+0.14%)

(07-10-2022, 03:08 PM)chartist kao Wrote: [ -> ]usd against sgd edge up ahead of later job data

USD/SGD - US Dollar Singapore Dollar
Real-time FX

1.4310
+0.0020(+0.14%)

I need to change some ringgit.
Better to change today or tomorrow?

if second half of 2023 us still have full employment then 2042 to 2025 will see a sharp downturn in usa

eurpean markets vs fed aggressive rate hikes

EUR/USD - Euro US Dollar

0.9799
+0.0011(+0.11%)
03:36:27
-Real-time Data.
Currency in USD

it is good to have a deep recession in US in 2024 to 2035,so rates will be reversed

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/0...oks-likely

global semiconductor stocks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-chi...47708.html

us try to issolate from china russia and middle east after 2021..will it lead to a path of US's prosperity?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trea...ke-economy

GBP/USD - British Pound US Dollar

Real-time FX

Create Alert
Add to Watchlist
1.0950 -0.0013 -0.12%

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/treasury...ainty.html

how a global economic slowdown will affect FED's rate hikes?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCx1Cd6HiVk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7HNpSgD62c

why singaporean funds sell out shares and put their money in fds and government bonds as

https://www.investors.com/news/cpi-infla...lds-top-4/

the road to reduce debts globally after 2021

https://www.sinchew.com.my/20221014/%e4%...%e9%80%94/

why money keeps flowing into sg
sgd/rupiah
10,831.25
+99.00(+0.92%)
sgd/cny
Real-time FX

5.0469
+0.0371(+0.74%)

sgd/myr
3.3082
+0.0312(+0.95%)

sgd/baht 26.77
vs
usd/sgd-1.4212

sgd/rupee
57.960
+0.545(+0.95%)
over 10 years sgd has appreciated more than 10%

the great money outflow from india
sgd/rupee
01 Jul 2010 33.1530 34.5550 32.7700 34.0930 34.0930

why rich pino tycoons still put money in sgd

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=SGD&to=PHP&view=10Y

Germany pushes back at ‘selfish’ claims over energy bailout
Deputy chancellor says €200bn package will help protect whole EU economy

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/...gy-crisis/

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/econo...index.html

Profits and losses aren’t usually thought of as a consideration for central banks, but rapidly mounting red ink at the Federal Reserve and many peers risks becoming more than just an accounting oddity.

The bond market is enduring its worst selloff in a generation, triggered by high inflation and the aggressive interest-rate hikes that central banks are implementing. Falling bond prices, in turn, mean paper losses on the massive holdings that the Fed and others accumulated during their rescue efforts in recent years.

Rate hikes also involve central banks paying out more interest on the reserves that commercial banks park with them. That’s tipped the Fed into operating losses, creating a hole that may ultimately require the Treasury Department to fill via debt sales. The UK Treasury is already preparing to make up a loss at the Bank of England.
Britain’s move highlights a dramatic shift in countries including the US, where central banks are no longer significant contributors to government revenues. The US Treasury will see a “stunning swing,” going from receiving about US$100 billion last year from the Fed to a potential annual loss rate of US$80 billion by year-end, according to Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The accounting losses threaten to fuel criticism of the asset purchase programmes undertaken to rescue markets and economies, most recently when Covid-19 shuttered large swathes of the global economy in 2020. Coinciding with the current outbreak in inflation, that could spur calls to rein in monetary policymakers’ independence, or limit what steps they can take in the next crisis.

“The problem with central bank losses are not the losses per se – they can always be recapitalised – but the political backlash central banks are likely to increasingly face,” said Jerome Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re, who previously worked at Switzerland’s central bank.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking...d-spending

After paying as much as US$100 billion to the Treasury in 2021, it could face losses of more than US$80 billion on an annual basis if policymakers raise rates by 75 basis points in November and 50 basis points in December – as markets anticipate – estimates Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Amherst Pierpont.7 days ago

The Fed expects to raise its target rate to around 4.4% by the end of 2022, up from the current range of 3-3.25%. However, they don't foresee inflation reaching their 2% target until 2025. In the meantime, the rapid interest rate hikes could lead to an economic downturn.6 Oct 2022

by end of 2023 rate will rise to 5%

and the selldown of three local bank will see bargain comes back soon

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/cr...hmann-says

Lehmann brother still around

the three bank shares undergoing profit taking after yesterday rally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dg_789WpDgM

democrat rule the world with wars and economic uncertainty hope a better outcome will appear in next few days

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https://www.ft.com/content/18cfa0e6-c10f...6118e4e84f

When Federal Reserve officials last met to set US monetary policy, chair Jay Powell made it clear that a recession in the world’s largest economy could not be ruled out.

“No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be,” he said at the press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee’s gathering in September.

As the Fed convenes this week, inflation remains at the highest level in decades and is becoming more embedded, meaning policymakers are set to ratchet up their response and implement the fourth 0.75 percentage point increase in a row while also signalling more tightening ahead. Economists warn that means a more severe downturn is on the cards.

“Each adverse [inflation] report and each adverse development in the outside world implies the Fed is going to have to do more in order to bring the situation under control,” said David Wilcox, a former Fed staffer who now works at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

He added: “Doing more means a higher probability of a recession, and if [it] happens, in all likelihood a deeper recession.”

Since the Fed’s last meeting, there have been signs that the housing market is weakening while consumer demand has started to soften, but fresh inflation data has shown price pressures continue to build and labour costs have firmed.

Most alarmingly, the October consumer price index reported an acceleration in “core” inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy. Inflation had spread from industries hobbled by pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine to categories such as services.

Sonal Desai, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, described this “migration” as a problem “a bit like whack-a-mole, with a different piece of the basket popping up with inflation pressures”.

She added: “The reality is we are going to need to see some slowdown in the economy to take some of that demand-side pressure off.”

Another 0.75 percentage point increase this week will lift the federal funds rate to a new target range of 3.75 to 4 per cent, a level that policymakers think will start to have a bigger impact on economic activity.

In September, when FOMC members and branch presidents last published forecasts, most saw the benchmark policy rate hitting 4.4 per cent by the end of the year before peaking at 4.6 per cent in 2023.

But given the economic data that has been published since then, many economists and traders betting on fed funds futures now think the rate will probably top out at a “terminal” level of 5 per cent.

“The higher the terminal rate, the greater the window for all borrowing costs to continue to rise, [which] does suggest the growing risk of quite a severe downturn,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

Knightley is among a growing cohort of economists and policymakers to question whether the central bank should consider slowing the pace of its rate rises. “By moving hard and fast, you just naturally have less control,” he said.

But easing up when inflation is this severe could result in a repeat of communications problems that Powell was forced to rectify in August.

Over the summer, the Fed’s declaration that it would need to slow the pace of rate rises “at some point” fuelled bets the central bank was losing the stomach for the fight against inflation and might start cutting rates next year. Markets rallied sharply, undoing some of the work that the central bank had accomplished in ushering in tighter financial conditions.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said: “On the one hand, it should moderate the pace to see how the massive recent front-loading of hikes plays out in the real economy and for financial stability. On the other hand, it can ill-afford another blow to its inflation-fighting credibility.”

Recommended

The Big Read
The Fed’s dilemma: how long to ‘keep at it’ on inflation

Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities, said one “graceful” way for the Fed to slow down without stoking scepticism about its commitment would be to indicate support for a higher “terminal rate” while also homing in on financial stability concerns.

Those vulnerabilities became evident in the UK last month when government bond markets seized up and tipped pension funds into turmoil, forcing the Bank of England to intervene.

“If you look at the US data, it is very hard to argue why they need to downshift. But the moment you look at the global picture, the UK situation should give them caution to downshift without pivoting,” she said.

A moderation in the pace of policy tightening to half-point increments would be welcome news to some Senate Democrats, mostly on the left of the party, who have recently stepped up their criticism of the Fed and warned of excessive job losses in the future.

But for now at least policymakers seem more concerned about doing too little rather than too much to fight inflation.

“What’s at stake if they make the wrong call is that inflation stays higher, and that means at some point down the road they’ll have to do even more to get inflation back to 2 per cent,” said Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard.