07-12-2022, 07:38 PM
Removal of the restrictions risks sparking an unparalleled “winter wave” of Covid infections that would rapidly overwhelm China’s healthcare system, according to projections by Wigram Capital Advisors, an Asia-focused macroeconomic advisory group that has provided modelling to governments during the pandemic. The models have been reviewed by the Financial Times.
Under a scenario where China’s leadership continues to roll back zero-Covid — as it has been doing in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou among other cities in recent days — daily fatalities may reach as high as 20,000 in mid-March. Demand for intensive care units would peak at 10 times higher than capacity by late March and daily hospitalisations would hit 70,000.
The winter wave would be exacerbated by the likelihood of the lunar new year holiday, the world’s largest annual human migration, becoming a super spreader event.
https://www.ft.com/content/4e1f0062-279c...331418a8f5
Under a scenario where China’s leadership continues to roll back zero-Covid — as it has been doing in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou among other cities in recent days — daily fatalities may reach as high as 20,000 in mid-March. Demand for intensive care units would peak at 10 times higher than capacity by late March and daily hospitalisations would hit 70,000.
The winter wave would be exacerbated by the likelihood of the lunar new year holiday, the world’s largest annual human migration, becoming a super spreader event.
https://www.ft.com/content/4e1f0062-279c...331418a8f5
