Quote:I hate to be the smug, annoying guy who’s always saying “I told you so”, but as with the essays in The Price of Zero, I was quite correct in my GE 2025 predictions. I had said right from the start that this would be a status quo election in which the Opposition would struggle to make any gains. 

The only thing I didn’t expect was the large swing (of over 4 percent) in favour of the PAP. This was due in large part to the poor quality of most Opposition candidates in the constituencies that weren’t contested by the main Oppo parties. This flattered the PAP’s overall vote share. 

Another surprise was the WP’s strong, even improved, performance in the context of the nationwide swing against the Opposition. But this fact shouldn’t be celebrated too much; we should all expect major redrawing of the electoral boundaries of Tampines, Punggol and Jalan Kayu next time round.

To get more practice at making accurate predictions, the Chinese economy provides fertile learning opportunities. And the best way to start is by getting a copy of https://thepriceofzero.org.

Perhaps the most important thing to remind yourself when making predictions is that we all suffer from the optimism bias. The optimism bias is the very strong tendency we have to believe that our preferred outcomes or scenarios are also the most probable. Whether it's the Chinese economy becoming the largest in the world or the Opposition in Sg making electoral gains, what's desirable may not be probable, much less inevitable.

(04-05-2025, 09:29 PM)forum456 Wrote:  gerrymandering is powerful because you cannot build rapport with voters within a month.

removing opposition voters and replacing with PAP voters is very effective.

(04-05-2025, 09:36 PM)p1acebo Wrote:  EBRC should be neutral.

(04-05-2025, 09:36 PM)p1acebo Wrote:  EBRC should be neutral.

(04-05-2025, 09:40 PM)forum456 Wrote:  redrawing boundary should be done 6 months to 1 year ahead so that candidates can have time to build rapport with voters.

if not, it will always favour PAP.

(04-05-2025, 10:01 PM)Tangsen Wrote:  Its like Liverpool telling Man city whats my formation before the match ….. dun be naive 

(04-05-2025, 10:16 PM)forum456 Wrote:  gerrymandering is to manipulate the boundaries of (an electoral constituency) so as to favour one party or class.

this is wrong and cheating.

it is not about strategy.

it is like Liverpool telling Man city last minute the location of stadium so that Man city fans cannot come in time to support Man city.

(04-05-2025, 10:20 PM)Tangsen Wrote:  What is wrong? What is cheating? What is the rule or T&C in erection? 

Dun be naive …. politic is dirty …. objective is to win

(04-05-2025, 09:36 PM)p1acebo Wrote:  EBRC should be neutral.

(04-05-2025, 10:26 PM)forum456 Wrote:  you are implying PAP need gerrymandering to win and PAP plays dirty politics because you think it is nothing wrong.

(04-05-2025, 10:32 PM)Tangsen Wrote:  Nope, nothing wrong, use all at your disposal to win. Any doucmented what you can and cannot do in politics?
Dun hink like a kindergarten kid. 
Its politic …. win at all cost

(04-05-2025, 10:38 PM)forum456 Wrote:  politicians can play dirty and you can support dirty politicians.

but voters can use vote to vote against dirty politicians.

unlike you, i do not support dirty polIticians like PAP.

(04-05-2025, 10:47 PM)Tangsen Wrote:  If they meet your means, why not? If wanna be righteous, honourable and all the stuffs …. errrr …. support who … no one in this world are like that

As long as PAP gives SG stability, gets things done, and provides the citizens opportunities instead of being self-entitled citizens …. its ok if they are dirty

Proven … PAP delivered during Covid and we came back stronger … if not, how did the landslide tsunami victory happened

Politics is dirty.

(04-05-2025, 09:36 PM)p1acebo Wrote:  EBRC should be neutral.

(04-05-2025, 11:13 PM)Alice Alicia Wrote:  The referee and linesmen also from the home team.
How to win?

(04-05-2025, 11:18 PM)forum456 Wrote:  actually, all oppositions should boycott all elections since the rules are unfair.

let PAP has all election walkover.

no point for WP to be in parliament when they always lose due to gerrymandering.

(04-05-2025, 11:29 PM)Alice Alicia Wrote:  Election is just for show, to the world that we are a democratic country.

Reality is, if PAP is really threatened by strong oppo, they have the blank cheque to declare emergency, and suspense election indefinitely.

What can you do about it? Nothing.

That's why I always said, pap will win regardless of who you vote for.

(04-05-2025, 10:28 PM)Bigiron Wrote:  But someone are from PMO side hor

(04-05-2025, 11:01 PM)forum456 Wrote:  in short, you are thief and I am police.

our debate will have no outcome