To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Printable Version
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To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Levin - 05-01-2022
Martin Sandbu
05 Jan 2022 11:57AM
(Updated: 05 Jan 2022 11:57AM)
......
We have evidently neither controlled the pandemic nor learned to optimise our policy responses, despite two years of experience. There is no excuse for this.
Omicron, like any particular mutation, came unannounced. But the arrival of mutations is a predictable – and predicted – outcome of infections continuing to spread, which the world has failed to prevent.
“Zero-COVID” has not worked, because it has not been tried in enough countries. The few governments with an uncompromising repression strategy have largely succeeded in keeping cases at an enviably minimal level.
They have suffered neither greater economic hardship nor, over time, more onerous deviations from normal behaviour, than countries permitting higher transmission rates.
Quite the contrary: Clamping down harder at the first signs of community contagion makes it possible to ease up sooner and enjoy normal economic activity for longer.
South Korea and New Zealand, for example, have over time had lighter restrictions in place than the UK and parts of the US, and even than Sweden for much of the pandemic.
The greatest cost of zero-COVID strategies – harsh limits on cross-border travel – are only necessary because partner countries have been more tolerant of contagion.
The lack of global commitment may indeed have made zero-COVID unsustainable, though that is hardly a justification for those who actively undermine it.
......
The priority now is to handle the reality that COVID-19 is here to stay.
......
A whole new order of preparedness is therefore imperative. If waves of coronavirus variants, or new pathogens, are likely to hit us regularly, we need a system of emergency responses entrenched in law and practice.
Everyone needs to know these can be triggered at short notice. Our best case future is one where “normality” can be shifted to a crisis regime at the flick of a switch, when contagion intensifies.
......
The advantages of advance plans for pandemic outbreaks are threefold.
First, economic damage is minimised if businesses know exactly which restrictions and support schemes to expect should a pandemic emergency be triggered, and can organise their business model (and insurance) around such an eventuality.
Second, advance planning greatly facilitates government decision-making.
A ready set of measures to be “switched on” in a crisis is vastly preferable to reinventing the wheel each time – and more likely to avoid the errors of hurried decision-making.
......
Third, the previous two advantages would reduce the political cost of acting early. Procrastination has been one of our deadliest enemies. What the examples above show is that it takes more severe restrictions to bring a higher rate of contagion under control.
......
Misunderstanding this is the original sin of politicians who resist restrictions ostensibly for the sake of freedom or economic growth. Both fare better with the occasional swift imposition of a predictable emergency regime for a few weeks than under our current policy mess.
......
Planning for a permanent pandemic, rather than pretending it does not exist, is what learning to live with the virus really means.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/covid-19-omicron-variant-wave-endemic-living-2416041
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Galilo_l - 05-01-2022
We need to use snakes to slide n ladders to climb
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - debono - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 08:20 PM)Levin Wrote: Martin SandbuIn the US Omicron is spreading like wildfire.......
05 Jan 2022 11:57AM
(Updated: 05 Jan 2022 11:57AM)
......
We have evidently neither controlled the pandemic nor learned to optimise our policy responses, despite two years of experience. There is no excuse for this.
Omicron, like any particular mutation, came unannounced. But the arrival of mutations is a predictable – and predicted – outcome of infections continuing to spread, which the world has failed to prevent.
“Zero-COVID” has not worked, because it has not been tried in enough countries. The few governments with an uncompromising repression strategy have largely succeeded in keeping cases at an enviably minimal level.
They have suffered neither greater economic hardship nor, over time, more onerous deviations from normal behaviour, than countries permitting higher transmission rates.
Quite the contrary: Clamping down harder at the first signs of community contagion makes it possible to ease up sooner and enjoy normal economic activity for longer.
South Korea and New Zealand, for example, have over time had lighter restrictions in place than the UK and parts of the US, and even than Sweden for much of the pandemic.
The greatest cost of zero-COVID strategies – harsh limits on cross-border travel – are only necessary because partner countries have been more tolerant of contagion.
The lack of global commitment may indeed have made zero-COVID unsustainable, though that is hardly a justification for those who actively undermine it.
......
The priority now is to handle the reality that COVID-19 is here to stay.
......
A whole new order of preparedness is therefore imperative. If waves of coronavirus variants, or new pathogens, are likely to hit us regularly, we need a system of emergency responses entrenched in law and practice.
Everyone needs to know these can be triggered at short notice. Our best case future is one where “normality” can be shifted to a crisis regime at the flick of a switch, when contagion intensifies.
......
The advantages of advance plans for pandemic outbreaks are threefold.
First, economic damage is minimised if businesses know exactly which restrictions and support schemes to expect should a pandemic emergency be triggered, and can organise their business model (and insurance) around such an eventuality.
Second, advance planning greatly facilitates government decision-making.
A ready set of measures to be “switched on” in a crisis is vastly preferable to reinventing the wheel each time – and more likely to avoid the errors of hurried decision-making.
......
Third, the previous two advantages would reduce the political cost of acting early. Procrastination has been one of our deadliest enemies. What the examples above show is that it takes more severe restrictions to bring a higher rate of contagion under control.
......
Misunderstanding this is the original sin of politicians who resist restrictions ostensibly for the sake of freedom or economic growth. Both fare better with the occasional swift imposition of a predictable emergency regime for a few weeks than under our current policy mess.
......
Planning for a permanent pandemic, rather than pretending it does not exist, is what learning to live with the virus really means.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/covid-19-omicron-variant-wave-endemic-living-2416041
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - starbugs - 05-01-2022
The first sentence is already wrong. "We have evidently neither controlled the pandemic nor learned to optimise our policy responses"
We in Asia mostly controlled the pandemic and had the right policies, but America and Europe (UK especially) didn't. They allowed unimpeded travel which spread the virus and gave it space to mutate. If every country globally had a done a proper one-month lockdown and then continued with sensible containment policies, we wouldn't still be in a pandemic today.
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - debono - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:15 PM)starbugs Wrote: The first sentence is already wrong. "We have evidently neither controlled the pandemic nor learned to optimise our policy responses"America and Europe(UK especially) have not control the pandemic. They should do a proper one-month lockdown so that we wouldn't be in a pandemic today...
We in Asia mostly controlled the pandemic and had the right policies, but America and Europe (UK especially) didn't. They allowed unimpeded travel which spread the virus and gave it space to mutate. If every country globally had a done a proper one-month lockdown and then continued with sensible containment policies, we wouldn't still be in a pandemic today.
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Tangsen - 05-01-2022
It will be like flu but this time must annual jab ….
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Bigiron - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:21 PM)debono Wrote: America and Europe(UK especially) have not control the pandemic. They should do a proper one-month lockdown so that we wouldn't be in a pandemic today...
They amdk what can we do?🤔 Plus Pinky need to carry their favour. Some LKY not around . No one will respect us.
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - debono - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:24 PM)Bigiron Wrote: They amdk what can we do?🤔 Plus Pinky need to carry their favour. Some LKY not around . No one will respect us.
If LKY is still around we will not be in such a situation......
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Tangsen - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:26 PM)debono Wrote: If LKY is still around we will not be in such a situation......
LKY just won the World Championship leh …. he in SG, what still around?
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Bigiron - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:28 PM)Tangsen Wrote: LKY just won the World Championship leh …. he in SG, what still around?
Not that LKY lah
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - debono - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:28 PM)Tangsen Wrote: LKY just won the World Championship leh …. he in SG, what still around?Let me clarify, LKY= Lee Kuan Yew.........you are pulling my leg.....?
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Tangsen - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:30 PM)debono Wrote: Let me clarify, LKY= Lee Kuan Yew.........you are pulling my leg.....?
OH …. old man har …… aiya old man already did so much he need rest lah
I thought you talking about the badminton world champ
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Tangsen - 05-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:29 PM)Bigiron Wrote: Not that LKY lah
I call him old man … he already did so much for us, time for his eternal rest lah
RE: To live with COVID-19, we must plan for a permanent pandemic - Levin - 06-01-2022
(05-01-2022, 10:15 PM)starbugs Wrote: The first sentence is already wrong. "We have evidently neither controlled the pandemic nor learned to optimise our policy responses"
We in Asia mostly controlled the pandemic and had the right policies, but America and Europe (UK especially) didn't. They allowed unimpeded travel which spread the virus and gave it space to mutate. If every country globally had a done a proper one-month lockdown and then continued with sensible containment policies, we wouldn't still be in a pandemic today.
The writer is from UK lah.