Elon Musk talk about supply chain ...why I think he is wrong& EVstocks will shoot up - Printable Version

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Elon Musk talk about supply chain ...why I think he is wrong& EVstocks will shoot up - sgbuffett - 29-01-2022

Elon Musk is wrong and investors should take advantage of his mistake to buy.





In recent earnings call Elon Musk projected Telsa will grow "only" 50% due to supply chain problems. This cause Tesla stock to plunge 11%.
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But the thing is supply chain problems started in middle of 2020 and dragged until end of last year.. if what Elkn Musk says is true then the global economy is in trouble not just Tesla.

Because the stock market is jittery and fragile this news managed to cause a sharp plung in Tesla stock as "sell first ask later" is the order of the day.

I did a fact check of what Elon Musk said. 

I eeally doubt what he says will pan out. If it does we are looking more trouble ahead than just Tesla.

Things might have turned temporarily acute due to Omicron wave but this wave once is over the longer term.supply chain reviver will take hold and we will see a production boom not an economy crippled by supply chain worries.

The 2 scenarios lead to 2 different investment strategy.

If what Elon Musk said is true we have to go defensive as all growth stocks dependent on production will be crippled. Software companies will be immune but a laptop maker will be facing problems. Auto makers will do badly.

But if what Elkn Musk say is untrue. Its the reverse as pent up demand lead to different scenario.

If one is familiar with the Stanford University game called Beer game, using the current state of supply chain to predict problems ahead is a business fallacy....and leads to wrong strategy.  Because the final.assembly and production is at the end of the supply chain they will not know...that is where Elon Musk is talking from

The supply shortages could be due to collective action of many players to stock up over-order and cause the producer to over produce. The under supply will flip to oversupply suddenly.

I did a more complete supply chain analysis using my own machine and data.

I believe Elon Musk is dead wrong or.said what he said to lower expectations to create positive surprises. 

References below for Beer Game. I learn about the beer game in one of my online courses 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_distribution_game

Some analysis of supply chain done in Nov 2021.
https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/two-charts-that-show-global-supply-chain-issues-could-be-starting-to-ease/

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - Yin yang - 29-01-2022

All these disruptions in supply chain, basic necessities , staples, chip shortages, hyperinflation, uncertainties n all the world troubles r all caused by hilly billy white supremacists trumph, the entire senate, rep extremists n now sleepy powerless joe ..toeing the line taken by the white bullies anyhow advocating trade wars, sanctions here there, imposing tariffs against any country they dont like...

Still behaving like the police bully of the world...until the hilly billies change their superior mindset, there wud not b peace goodwill.

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - debono - 29-01-2022

(29-01-2022, 11:20 AM)Yin yang Wrote:  All these disruptions in supply chain, basic necessities , staples,  chip shortages, hyperinflation, uncertainties  n all the world troubles  r all caused by hilly billy white supremacists trumph, the entire senate, rep extremists n now sleepy powerless  joe ..toeing the line taken by the white bullies anyhow advocating trade wars, sanctions here there, imposing tariffs against any country they dont like...

Still behaving like the police bully of the world...until the hilly billies change their superior mindset, there wud not b peace goodwill.

Why must America always play the role of a global policeman......what does they stand to gain...?

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - starbugs - 29-01-2022

Someone took one online class and is now a bigger expert in supply chain than the CEO of a car manufacturer.

Amazing!

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - Sharexchange - 29-01-2022

China 2019 already started buying up all global supply. Main cause is china govt buying.

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - debono - 29-01-2022

(29-01-2022, 12:47 PM)starbugs Wrote:  Someone took one online class and is now a bigger expert in supply chain than the CEO of a car manufacturer.

Amazing!

Sgbuffett must have undergone. one module in supply chain, and now trying to tell us why the supply chain analysis is faulty.......

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - Huliwang - 29-01-2022

Probably Elon Musk have known something through his high end connections which we ordinary folks is not aware. I would keep his opinion with an open mind ........

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - cityhantam - 29-01-2022

Supply chain disruption started by Donut Trump, further worsened by Sleepy Joe.

Will the situation improve this year?

I doubt.

They already disrupted supply of natural gas from Russia and who huat from this? 

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - debono - 29-01-2022

(29-01-2022, 01:18 PM)cityhantam Wrote:  Supply chain disruption started by Donut Trump, further worsened by Sleepy Joe.

Will the situation improve this year?

With Donut Trump and sleepy Joe at the helm, the economy is in shambles.......

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - cityhantam - 29-01-2022

(29-01-2022, 01:22 PM)debono Wrote:  With Donut Trump and sleepy Joe at the helm, the economy is in shambles.......

Everything is screwed up!

God save Assmerica! 

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - debono - 29-01-2022

(29-01-2022, 01:26 PM)cityhantam Wrote:  Everything is screwed up!

God save Assmerica! 

The whole Congress should do a reset.......

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - cityhantam - 29-01-2022

(29-01-2022, 01:28 PM)debono Wrote:  The whole Congress should do a reset.......

In Assmerica, you only have two choices :

1. Coca-Cola

2. Pepsi-Cola 

No other choices! 

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - sgbuffett - 01-02-2022

(29-01-2022, 12:47 PM)starbugs Wrote:  Someone took one online class and is now a bigger expert in supply chain than the CEO of a car manufacturer.

Amazing!

I am not saying I am expert just that I check what Elon Musk say tha triggered drop in EV stocks...he i
wrongly cause the stocks to plunge.

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RE: When Elon Musk talk about supply chain problem...why I think he is wrong... - sgbuffett - 01-02-2022

(29-01-2022, 01:13 PM)Huliwang Wrote:  Probably Elon Musk have known something through his high end connections which we ordinary folks is not aware. I would keep his opinion with an open mind ........

He is dead wrong and the market will pick up on his mistake and undo the plunge in EV stocks.

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RE: Elon Musk talk about supply chain ...why I think he is wrong& EVstocks will shoot up - sgbuffett - 01-02-2022

Market discover Elon Musk mistake that cause EV stock plunge.

All EV stocks recover to above price before plunge cause by Elon Musk.

I bet you there is no supply chain problem in 2 months and Elon Musk will come out and say sales expected to be much higher and Tesla overcome supply chain problems through his genius.

Anyone who listens to him and sold will live to regret...

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