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+--- Thread: Why oil always crashes down after it goes above $100 per barrel (/Thread-Why-oil-always-crashes-down-after-it-goes-above-100-per-barrel)
Why oil always crashes down after it goes above $100 per barrel - sgbuffett - 09-03-2022
Look at this chart....every time oil crosses $100 it quickly peaks and price collapse. Oil is above $100 now likely it has peaked and will decline rapidly
There may be intermittent surges due to war but it will just sink fast after that.
Why? Let me explain.
![[Image: Ovg1dZf.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/Ovg1dZf.jpg)
Remember a few years ago to fight shale producers, Saudi refuse to lower quota and just let price of oil collapse from $100 to $40.
The Saudi oil production is $5 per barrel and shale is $60. Using an off shore rig is $70. Canadian tar sand is $60 and so on.
There is plenty of oil just that different sources produce it at different cost.
But once it crosses $100 almost all source of oil is profitable
The producer will sell oil futures to lock in price and start production and this increases supply. Often the other side of the trade is a speculator. Later the trader or speculator will need sell his position as he does not take delivery
The extra capacity causes oil prices to collapse
RE: Why oil always crashes down after it goes above $100 per barrel - sgbuffett - 10-03-2022
Coming down fast.
I expect it not just to go below $100 but back down to $60 where shale stops production.
![[Image: lTdA5b5.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/lTdA5b5.jpg)
RE: Why oil always crashes down after it goes above $100 per barrel - p1acebo - 10-03-2022
All I know is I am paying more than $3 per litre for petrol. Ouch. Last time less than $2
RE: Why oil always crashes down after it goes above $100 per barrel - p1acebo - 10-03-2022
How must ask friends and meimei walk home themselves
RE: Why oil always crashes down after it goes above $100 per barrel - sgbuffett - 10-03-2022
(10-03-2022, 06:47 AM)p1acebo Wrote: How must ask friends and meimei walk home themselves
Oil price will go down soon but not sure of the lpimp prices ...then to stay up longer.
RE: Why oil always crashes down after it goes above $100 per barrel - singlon - 10-03-2022
why now unlimited on the upside?
RE: Why oil always crashes down after it goes above $100 per barrel - sgbuffett - 10-03-2022
(10-03-2022, 06:51 AM)singlon Wrote: why now unlimited on the upside?
Unlimited ? It is sinking.
Oil and gas may be a bit differentiated.
Oil can be moved anywhere.
At 100 all produces are pumping like crazy.l at this great price.
Russia needs money. If it gets banned by Western countries or if it refuses to sell to western countries ...it has to sell to China. China can enjoy cheaper Russian oil.
Those selling to China now pushed out by Russia has tk flood to rest of the world.
Oil above 100 has always been temporary and will just crash down.