[Tee tiong huat]

With an estimated 15% of Russian refining capabilities destroyed before the ceasefire, this equates to over 21 billion US dollars in missing revenue, as a Ukrainian strike drone only costs a few thousand dollars. Russian repair efforts are hindered by Western sanctions, which limit access to specialized equipment and technologies necessary for the proper repair of the refineries, as many of them are either partially or entirely built by Western companies. Consequently, some facilities, such as the Astrakhan refinery hit last February, may take nearly 6 months to repair fully, while others may not fully recover to their previous operational capacities at all.

Various analysts also state that many Russian refineries will not be repaired at all due to the constant threat of Ukrainian drone strikes, the inability of the Russian military to adequately defend them, and the expectancy that the energy ceasefire will not last. In the past, Ukrainians often targeted the same refinery multiple times in succession, such as at the Kavkazskaya oil pumping station, where they waited for fires to be extinguished and repairs to be completed before launching a repeat strike that dismantled the facility’s operations once again. Due to a shortage of skilled labor and Western sanctions on critical components, it is expected to take years for Russia to repair and fully restore its refining capacity to pre-war levels if the war and sanctions persist, resulting in an estimated 63 to 105 billion US dollars in lost revenue.

Overall, the strategic targeting of Russia's energy infrastructure by Ukrainian forces serves multiple purposes. It aims to undermine the Russian war effort by reducing revenues from fuel exports, creating internal pressures within Russia due to rising fuel prices and disruptions to energy supplies, and challenging the narrative of domestic security while exposing massive vulnerabilities within Russia’s critical infrastructure. Even though all Ukrainian strikes are currently on pause, the following targets are likely already prepared to quickly strike back if the ceasefire ends.

https://youtu.be/le1MD_jc1HQ?si=B-k9_Eyg_916qPEK