26-07-2022, 10:37 AM
ocbc's Management has shared that they will not be limited by their target dividend payout ratio range of 40-50% and that their optimal CET-1 ratio is 12.5-13.5% in the longer term.”
![](https://i.imgur.com/CLvY2jA.png")
Fed aggressive rate hikes always cause deep recession
26-07-2022, 11:03 AM
the share buy backed from 11.50 during the earlier selldown will be the support price till october 2022 selloff
26-07-2022, 11:06 AM
26-07-2022, 11:46 AM
when everyone is complacent bitcoin hit usd 68000 and oil price hit below usd 70
https://ifunny.co/picture/the-feelings-a...-YFhJDNmL8
and when everyone is hopeless bitcoin hit usd19000 and oil price hit usd 100
https://ifunny.co/picture/the-feelings-a...-YFhJDNmL8
and when everyone is hopeless bitcoin hit usd19000 and oil price hit usd 100
26-07-2022, 11:48 AM
26-07-2022, 02:24 PM
26-07-2022, 02:26 PM
26-07-2022, 02:34 PM
share set for the $30 level market after oct 2022
https://www.ig.com/sg/news-and-trade-ide...ar--220628
https://www.ig.com/sg/news-and-trade-ide...ar--220628
27-07-2022, 09:01 AM
more US companies will report disappointing earnings in 2023 after this
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/co...s-shoppers
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/co...s-shoppers
27-07-2022, 09:03 AM
and the many disappointing earnings to be out soon will make dollar to turn from laughters to sobs
https://www.ft.com/content/6ea4a7ee-989a...dc8e046863
https://www.ft.com/content/6ea4a7ee-989a...dc8e046863
27-07-2022, 09:06 AM
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https://www.ft.com/content/e2a69a2b-8eb1...532cf743a2
The writer is global head of the official institutions group at BlackRock and a former IMF official
Days after Russian troops invaded Ukraine, the G7 and a host of allies in Europe and Asia declared a freeze on the assets of the Central Bank of Russia. The move, unprecedented in its swiftness and scale, instantly incapacitated roughly half of its $630bn in international reserves. Up to this point, central bank reserves had only been frozen multilaterally after abrupt regime change — think of the Bolshevik and Chinese revolutions, or more recently Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela.
Immediately, warnings were uttered about unintended consequences, in particular the stability of the US dollar in the international monetary system. As many have convincingly argued, the Russian reserves freeze alone is unlikely to end the dominant role of the US dollar. But it might, over time, induce major shifts in global monetary relations alongside a broader rewiring of globalisation, making the last 30 years look like a lost golden age.
Prudence and deliberation are in central banks’ DNA. They do not make rash decisions. So while many central bankers privately felt shock or dismay at the reserves freeze, they do not appear to have significantly reallocated assets away from the dollar or euro.
Yet there is consensus among central bank reserve managers that something fundamental has changed: geopolitical considerations now need to be taken into account when assessing the safety and liquidity of a reserve asset. For most, this is an argument in favour of currency diversification, a trend under way already over the past 20 years at the expense of the US dollar and to the benefit of smaller advanced economy currencies such as the Canadian dollar or the Korean won. This might now accelerate, and possibly extend to additional currencies.
Recommended
FT News Briefing podcast11 min listen
European banks set to benefit from rising interest rates
Might the renminbi be one of the beneficiaries, as suggested by a recent survey? In fact, when it comes to the attractiveness of Chinese bonds in reserve portfolios after the sanctions on Russia, geopolitics is a clear dividing line. By and large, central bankers I talk to in countries in or close to the sanctioning coalition are reviewing — but not yet retreating from — whatever exposure or planned exposure they had to the renminbi. Others seem more inclined to stick to their holdings and plans to ramp them up further over time.
But ultimately, international reserves are held for specific economic reasons, not geopolitical ones: pegging or managing the exchange rate to another currency; paying for imports and international debt service; providing foreign exchange liquidity of last resort to domestic banks. So what will determine the extent of any shift in global reserve allocations is not the portfolio preferences of central bankers or the intrinsic properties of US dollar alternatives. It is whether new currencies come to play an important role in international trade and financial relations. The recent news of China negotiating with Saudi Arabia to pay for oil in renminbi is not, in itself, game-changing. If it finally happens and more of China’s inbound and outbound trade partners follow, it might well be.
In the near term there is little practical scope to overhaul trade and financing patterns, even if some countries want to. But other forms of rewiring may develop. Countries that see themselves as politically aligned may try to create a mutual aid system, separate from the sanctioning coalition. China’s recent creation of a renminbi liquidity facility at the Bank for International Settlements can be seen in this light. Discussions could also resurface between large reserve holders from the global south about swap arrangements, like those between the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England and a few others in the 2008 financial crisis. Cross-border payment systems to rival Swift will probably continue to grow.
There may also be a temptation to resort to much less transparent custody arrangements for reserve assets and much less transparency in their currency composition. It was a remarkable achievement of the past 10 years that the share of global reserves reported to the IMF’s currency composition database went from 55 to 93 per cent. This could now well go into reverse.
Those who fear that such a wholesale rewiring of globalisation would do more harm than good to global prosperity have called for new rules of the road. This seems well worth a try, but with eyes wide open to the risks of triggering another round of adverse consequences. Article 16 of the League of Nations covenant, which codified the use of economic sanctions after the first world war, not only failed to prevent the world from dividing itself into rival blocks but may even have accelerated the rift.
https://www.ft.com/content/e2a69a2b-8eb1...532cf743a2
The writer is global head of the official institutions group at BlackRock and a former IMF official
Days after Russian troops invaded Ukraine, the G7 and a host of allies in Europe and Asia declared a freeze on the assets of the Central Bank of Russia. The move, unprecedented in its swiftness and scale, instantly incapacitated roughly half of its $630bn in international reserves. Up to this point, central bank reserves had only been frozen multilaterally after abrupt regime change — think of the Bolshevik and Chinese revolutions, or more recently Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela.
Immediately, warnings were uttered about unintended consequences, in particular the stability of the US dollar in the international monetary system. As many have convincingly argued, the Russian reserves freeze alone is unlikely to end the dominant role of the US dollar. But it might, over time, induce major shifts in global monetary relations alongside a broader rewiring of globalisation, making the last 30 years look like a lost golden age.
Prudence and deliberation are in central banks’ DNA. They do not make rash decisions. So while many central bankers privately felt shock or dismay at the reserves freeze, they do not appear to have significantly reallocated assets away from the dollar or euro.
Yet there is consensus among central bank reserve managers that something fundamental has changed: geopolitical considerations now need to be taken into account when assessing the safety and liquidity of a reserve asset. For most, this is an argument in favour of currency diversification, a trend under way already over the past 20 years at the expense of the US dollar and to the benefit of smaller advanced economy currencies such as the Canadian dollar or the Korean won. This might now accelerate, and possibly extend to additional currencies.
Recommended
FT News Briefing podcast11 min listen
European banks set to benefit from rising interest rates
Might the renminbi be one of the beneficiaries, as suggested by a recent survey? In fact, when it comes to the attractiveness of Chinese bonds in reserve portfolios after the sanctions on Russia, geopolitics is a clear dividing line. By and large, central bankers I talk to in countries in or close to the sanctioning coalition are reviewing — but not yet retreating from — whatever exposure or planned exposure they had to the renminbi. Others seem more inclined to stick to their holdings and plans to ramp them up further over time.
But ultimately, international reserves are held for specific economic reasons, not geopolitical ones: pegging or managing the exchange rate to another currency; paying for imports and international debt service; providing foreign exchange liquidity of last resort to domestic banks. So what will determine the extent of any shift in global reserve allocations is not the portfolio preferences of central bankers or the intrinsic properties of US dollar alternatives. It is whether new currencies come to play an important role in international trade and financial relations. The recent news of China negotiating with Saudi Arabia to pay for oil in renminbi is not, in itself, game-changing. If it finally happens and more of China’s inbound and outbound trade partners follow, it might well be.
In the near term there is little practical scope to overhaul trade and financing patterns, even if some countries want to. But other forms of rewiring may develop. Countries that see themselves as politically aligned may try to create a mutual aid system, separate from the sanctioning coalition. China’s recent creation of a renminbi liquidity facility at the Bank for International Settlements can be seen in this light. Discussions could also resurface between large reserve holders from the global south about swap arrangements, like those between the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England and a few others in the 2008 financial crisis. Cross-border payment systems to rival Swift will probably continue to grow.
There may also be a temptation to resort to much less transparent custody arrangements for reserve assets and much less transparency in their currency composition. It was a remarkable achievement of the past 10 years that the share of global reserves reported to the IMF’s currency composition database went from 55 to 93 per cent. This could now well go into reverse.
Those who fear that such a wholesale rewiring of globalisation would do more harm than good to global prosperity have called for new rules of the road. This seems well worth a try, but with eyes wide open to the risks of triggering another round of adverse consequences. Article 16 of the League of Nations covenant, which codified the use of economic sanctions after the first world war, not only failed to prevent the world from dividing itself into rival blocks but may even have accelerated the rift.
27-07-2022, 09:07 AM
why put money in Europe and US where they can just freeze your money and block and sanction you with your own money?
27-07-2022, 09:11 AM
putting money in US, are you not afraid of your money becoming their money?
Western countries planning to go to war with China shouldn't put their reserves into RMB. But countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, India, Indonesia etc are very vulnerable to western attacks over "human rights" and can't afford to have their reserves stolen. They will also want to stay neutral in any conflict and won't want to impose sanctions on anyone. The only safe haven for these countries is the RMB, USD or EUR can be confiscated at the whim of the US president. There is no protection of sovereign property. China has never confiscated the legal property of foreign sovereign countries.
Western countries planning to go to war with China shouldn't put their reserves into RMB. But countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, India, Indonesia etc are very vulnerable to western attacks over "human rights" and can't afford to have their reserves stolen. They will also want to stay neutral in any conflict and won't want to impose sanctions on anyone. The only safe haven for these countries is the RMB, USD or EUR can be confiscated at the whim of the US president. There is no protection of sovereign property. China has never confiscated the legal property of foreign sovereign countries.
27-07-2022, 09:12 AM
and when you also see this happening in US,why put your money at risk?
World’s largest consumer goods groups reveal soaring price rises
Unilever, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s warn of more pressure on households as global inflation surges
World’s largest consumer goods groups reveal soaring price rises
Unilever, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s warn of more pressure on households as global inflation surges
27-07-2022, 09:15 AM
the past few years saw tech risen so much after 2009's QE and aggressive money printing schemes now with the reverse aggressive rate hikes we saw
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https://www.ft.com/content/424162c9-c4f6...93b0692326
lphabet’s quarterly revenue growth fell to its slowest pace in two years, but the internet advertising giant said its search and cloud businesses had fared well despite increasing macroeconomic headwinds.
The Google parent on Tuesday reported a 13 per cent rise in revenues during the June quarter to $69.7bn, missing estimates for $70.8bn and marking the fourth consecutive quarterly slowdown compared with the previous year.
Operating margins also slipped to 28 per cent, down 3 percentage points from a year ago. Net income shrank to $16bn from $18.5bn a year ago, missing Wall Street’s prediction of $17.4bn. Earnings per share came in at $1.21, versus analysts’ estimates for $1.27.
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https://www.ft.com/content/424162c9-c4f6...93b0692326
lphabet’s quarterly revenue growth fell to its slowest pace in two years, but the internet advertising giant said its search and cloud businesses had fared well despite increasing macroeconomic headwinds.
The Google parent on Tuesday reported a 13 per cent rise in revenues during the June quarter to $69.7bn, missing estimates for $70.8bn and marking the fourth consecutive quarterly slowdown compared with the previous year.
Operating margins also slipped to 28 per cent, down 3 percentage points from a year ago. Net income shrank to $16bn from $18.5bn a year ago, missing Wall Street’s prediction of $17.4bn. Earnings per share came in at $1.21, versus analysts’ estimates for $1.27.
28-07-2022, 09:04 AM
UOB trade $28.15 and ocbc traded at $11.63 after the report by DBS
DBS keeps 'buy' on UOB and OCBC while largely positive on Singapore banks
Chloe Lim
Chloe Lim
Mon, Jul 25, 2022 • 12:13 PM GMT+08 • 2 days ago • 3 min read
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DBS keeps 'buy' on UOB and OCBC while largely positive on Singapore banks
In her report dated July 22, Lim observes that the banks’ net interest income (NII) will bolster 2QFY2022 earnings as net interest margins (NIM) continue to expand
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DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen is overall positive on Singapore banks, with ‘buy’ ratings as they look set to “benefit strongly” from the Fed rate hike cycle.
Lim has kept her “buy” calls for both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB).
In her report dated July 22, Lim observes that the banks’ net interest income (NII) will bolster 2QFY2022 earnings as net interest margins (NIM) continue to expand. Banks’ management have guided for positive net interest income contributions on the back of higher interest rates.
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During the 1QFY2022 ended March, DBS, OCBC and UOB saw improvements of 3 basis points (bps), 3 bps and 2 bps q-o-q respectively as loans started to be repriced.
“With the average three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) increasing meaningfully by 70 bps/71 bps during the 2QFY2022, we expect NIMs to expand by [around] 5 bps - 9 bps, stronger than [the] banks’ guidance,” says Lim.
See also: Singapore's economic reopening, safe haven status and currency to help STI outperform most regional markets: RHB
Meanwhile, wealth management income is likely to be soft during the quarter due to weak market sentiment says Lim, registering double-digit y-o-y decline. “This should be offset by stronger performances from cards among others,” the analyst writes. “We expect pure trading income to face headwinds, offset by strong customer-flow related income from higher activities.”
At the same time, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty raises concerns over asset quality. “However, we expect asset quality to remain benign, coupled with buffers from ample provisions that Singapore banks have built up through the course of the pandemic,” says Lim.
“We expect credit costs to continue trending at healthy levels in the FY2022. Given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, Singapore banks’ management may be less inclined to write-back excess general provisions into FY2022,” she adds.
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To be sure, DBS has built up some $1.5 billion of general provisions, which is $200 million above the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) requirements. UOB, on the other hand, has over $1 billion of general provisions, the analyst notes.
See also: Analysts keep 'buy' calls on SATS despite cost pressures
Ahead of the banks’ results for the 2QFY2022 and 1HFY2022, Lim says that all three banks are likely to see “good contributions” from the expansion of NIMs in the 2QFY2022. This, however, will be offset by weaker contributions from non-interest income and higher operating expenses.
While investors remain concerned over an overly hawkish Fed and recession risks, economists from DBS Group Research believe that inflation is likely to slow ahead.
The Fed is also expected to be “done” with tightening this year, says Lim.
She adds: “We believe valuations will continue to draw support from good provisions’ buffer built up during the pandemic, as well as approximately 4% - 5% dividend yields.”
However, the analyst expects mixed performance for trading and other income, on the back of market volatility, partially offset by stronger customer flows and hedging activities.
“Given that UOB’s trading and investment income in 1QFY2022 saw a sizeable impact from hedges as interest rates rose – management has guided that the impact is one-off and that quarterly trading and investment income should normalise towards $150 million - $200 million,” says Lim.
“We believe [OCBC’s insurance arm] Great Eastern may continue to see headwinds from non-operating profit as fixed income and equity market conditions continue to be challenging during the quarter,” she adds.
As at 12.13pm, shares in OCBC and UOB are trading at $11.53 and $27.58 respectively.
DBS keeps 'buy' on UOB and OCBC while largely positive on Singapore banks
Chloe Lim
Chloe Lim
Mon, Jul 25, 2022 • 12:13 PM GMT+08 • 2 days ago • 3 min read
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DBS keeps 'buy' on UOB and OCBC while largely positive on Singapore banks
In her report dated July 22, Lim observes that the banks’ net interest income (NII) will bolster 2QFY2022 earnings as net interest margins (NIM) continue to expand
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DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen is overall positive on Singapore banks, with ‘buy’ ratings as they look set to “benefit strongly” from the Fed rate hike cycle.
Lim has kept her “buy” calls for both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB).
In her report dated July 22, Lim observes that the banks’ net interest income (NII) will bolster 2QFY2022 earnings as net interest margins (NIM) continue to expand. Banks’ management have guided for positive net interest income contributions on the back of higher interest rates.
Advertisement
During the 1QFY2022 ended March, DBS, OCBC and UOB saw improvements of 3 basis points (bps), 3 bps and 2 bps q-o-q respectively as loans started to be repriced.
“With the average three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) increasing meaningfully by 70 bps/71 bps during the 2QFY2022, we expect NIMs to expand by [around] 5 bps - 9 bps, stronger than [the] banks’ guidance,” says Lim.
See also: Singapore's economic reopening, safe haven status and currency to help STI outperform most regional markets: RHB
Meanwhile, wealth management income is likely to be soft during the quarter due to weak market sentiment says Lim, registering double-digit y-o-y decline. “This should be offset by stronger performances from cards among others,” the analyst writes. “We expect pure trading income to face headwinds, offset by strong customer-flow related income from higher activities.”
At the same time, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty raises concerns over asset quality. “However, we expect asset quality to remain benign, coupled with buffers from ample provisions that Singapore banks have built up through the course of the pandemic,” says Lim.
“We expect credit costs to continue trending at healthy levels in the FY2022. Given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, Singapore banks’ management may be less inclined to write-back excess general provisions into FY2022,” she adds.
Advertisement
To be sure, DBS has built up some $1.5 billion of general provisions, which is $200 million above the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) requirements. UOB, on the other hand, has over $1 billion of general provisions, the analyst notes.
See also: Analysts keep 'buy' calls on SATS despite cost pressures
Ahead of the banks’ results for the 2QFY2022 and 1HFY2022, Lim says that all three banks are likely to see “good contributions” from the expansion of NIMs in the 2QFY2022. This, however, will be offset by weaker contributions from non-interest income and higher operating expenses.
While investors remain concerned over an overly hawkish Fed and recession risks, economists from DBS Group Research believe that inflation is likely to slow ahead.
The Fed is also expected to be “done” with tightening this year, says Lim.
She adds: “We believe valuations will continue to draw support from good provisions’ buffer built up during the pandemic, as well as approximately 4% - 5% dividend yields.”
However, the analyst expects mixed performance for trading and other income, on the back of market volatility, partially offset by stronger customer flows and hedging activities.
“Given that UOB’s trading and investment income in 1QFY2022 saw a sizeable impact from hedges as interest rates rose – management has guided that the impact is one-off and that quarterly trading and investment income should normalise towards $150 million - $200 million,” says Lim.
“We believe [OCBC’s insurance arm] Great Eastern may continue to see headwinds from non-operating profit as fixed income and equity market conditions continue to be challenging during the quarter,” she adds.
As at 12.13pm, shares in OCBC and UOB are trading at $11.53 and $27.58 respectively.
28-07-2022, 09:07 AM
aggressive hikes rates ,sanction and anti-globalisation, drain liquidity from global markets
A Fed-induced recession is a medicine worse than the disease
Action to tackle inflation and protect workers should not be based on outdated economic thinking
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https://www.ft.com/content/31b15e03-929f...2df4bd6e37
Some commentators argue that the US needs a recession to bring inflation down. That thinking hinges on a simplistic model of the economy and a refusal to see Covid and the war in Ukraine as important sources of inflation now. The stakes are too high to rely on such a questionable approach.
Yes, inflation is a hardship, and it hits those with the least the hardest. Among American families in the bottom 20 per cent by income, almost 60 per cent of their spending is on food, gasoline and housing. That’s a far bigger fraction than among high income families.
The prices of these necessities have risen rapidly since the pandemic began. As a result, the lowest income families, on average, spend more than $300 a month extra to buy the same amount of these necessities.
A Fed-induced recession is a medicine worse than the disease
Action to tackle inflation and protect workers should not be based on outdated economic thinking
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https://www.ft.com/content/31b15e03-929f...2df4bd6e37
Some commentators argue that the US needs a recession to bring inflation down. That thinking hinges on a simplistic model of the economy and a refusal to see Covid and the war in Ukraine as important sources of inflation now. The stakes are too high to rely on such a questionable approach.
Yes, inflation is a hardship, and it hits those with the least the hardest. Among American families in the bottom 20 per cent by income, almost 60 per cent of their spending is on food, gasoline and housing. That’s a far bigger fraction than among high income families.
The prices of these necessities have risen rapidly since the pandemic began. As a result, the lowest income families, on average, spend more than $300 a month extra to buy the same amount of these necessities.
28-07-2022, 09:15 AM
28-07-2022, 09:16 AM
28-07-2022, 09:19 AM
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https://www.ft.com/content/82c13d3b-5b05...3ba075db4f
Admiral John Aquilino, the top US military commander in the Indo-Pacific, recently held an unusual meeting with the head of US Space Command and deputy head of US Cyber Command — in a remote part of the Australian outback.
Aquilino and his colleagues, General James Dickinson and Lieutenant General Charles Moore, had flown all the way to Alice Springs, a dusty town in central Australia for sensitive talks on China with top Australian officials at Pine Gap, a spy satellite facility run by the CIA and the Australian government.
Speaking before their meetings, Aquilino and his colleagues stressed that their visit to Australia was part of a strategy US president Joe Biden has made central to his foreign policy: working more closely with allies and partners to counter China.
“We’ve a few targets,” Aquilino, a former Navy “Top Gun” fighter pilot, said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Number one is highlight the strength of allies and partners to deliver integrated deterrence and prevent conflict here in the Indo-Pacific.”
Washington may be completely immersed in the war in Ukraine, but the Biden administration is also focused on what it sees as its biggest long-term objective — developing a coherent strategy to deal with China.
After the turbulence of the Trump years, when the administration’s hawkish tone on China was consistently undermined by spats with allies, the Biden team is going out of its way to ensure that the US and its partners are closely aligned on China.
As part of that effort, Aquilino spent six days in Australia. Over the past 15 months, the president has reinforced alliances with Japan, South Korea, New Zealand as well as Australia; worked hard to involve India more in China policy; boosted co-operation with European nations from Britain and France to Germany and ratcheted up support for Taiwan.
Yet while Biden has won praise from allies for the security component of his Indo-Pacific strategy, many have been frustrated at what they see as a gaping hole: the lack of a trade and economic agenda. For some critics, an appealing economic strategy is essential to bolstering US leverage in Asia and making sure countries are not too economically reliant on China.
“There has been a real vacuum in American trade policy towards Asia,” says Sheena Greitens, a China expert at the University of Texas in Austin. “Asia is moving ahead on regional trade integration, with some willingness to include China, while the US has been largely absent.”
Biden is hoping to shrink that gap this summer with the launch of an Indo-Pacific economic framework (IPEF). The plan will contain include elements that range from fair trade — including labour and environmental issues — to secure supply chains, infrastructure, clean energy and digital trade.
According to an official from a country in the Indo-Pacific, some Asean countries are very interested, for example, in a digital trade agreement that would set rules for the road.
Admiral John Aquilino, left, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, looks at videos of Chinese structures and buildings on board a P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance plane flying over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in March this year © Aaron Favila/AP
However, it will crucially not include any new access to the US market for products from Asian countries — a reflection of the increasingly tough politics surrounding traditional trade agreements that became so ingrained during the Trump years and which Biden remains sensitive to, particularly ahead of November’s congressional midterm elections.
Critics say that without a strong trade policy, the US risks ending up with a lopsided approach, heavy on military presence but light on economic engagement, which leaves its allies hesitant about its genuine commitment to the long-term future of the region.
Another Indo-Pacific official says countries in the region appreciate that Biden is finally engaging on trade, but adds that the lack of market access is a significant setback.
“It is like a fried egg without the yolk,” he says.
A troubled relationship
Biden has struck a more hawkish tone on China than allies had expected. He has taken Beijing to task over everything from its repression of Uyghurs to its military activity near Taiwan. China in return accuses the US of being a fading hegemonic power and says the days of it being bullied are over.
While Biden and Xi Jinping, his Chinese counterpart, have boosted their personal engagement in recent months, US-China relations are mired at their lowest level since the nations normalised diplomatic relations in 1979.
Biden’s China policy has several goals. He wants to shape the international landscape to raise the cost to China of engaging in coercive behaviour. He also hopes that showing a united front with allies such as Japan and Australia will send a strong signal about deterrence to China and make Xi think twice about invading Taiwan. And he wants to establish what his team describes as “guardrails” to avoid competition veering into conflict.
During his visit to Australia, Aquilino visited US marines who are stationed in Darwin as part of the push to position more US military resources in the region. At Amberley air force base, he greeted a B-2 stealth bomber that had flown from the US in a move that was partly aimed at reminding China about the potency of American military force.
In another example of co-operation, the White House recently said it was expanding Aukus — a security pact the US, UK and Australia agreed last year — to work together on hypersonic missiles. China reacted angrily to Aukus, which will help Australia get nuclear-powered submarines. It views the pact in a similar vein to the “Quad” — the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue grouping of the US, Japan, Australia and India — which Biden has also reinvigorated.
Biden has also had success persuading European nations, particularly Germany, which were previously wary about upsetting Beijing to take a tougher stance on China.
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Yet despite his efforts to deepen relations with allies, Biden has not yet persuaded Xi to reduce coercive activity in Asia. Paul Haenle, director of Carnegie China, a think-tank, says the focus on allies is critical but China is “not playing ball”.
“They do not buy the notion that the change in China’s policies, behaviour, actions and rhetoric under Xi Jinping is contributing in any way to the downturn in US-China relations,” says Haenle, who stresses, however, that Biden should continue to set the table for strategic negotiations in the future and that trade is a critical component.
“The risk is that the optics in the region become the US coming to the table with guns and ammunition and China dealing with the bread and butter issues of trade and economics.”
An alternative framework
Over the next few months, the Biden administration will make its pitch to revert that impression with the launch of its new economic framework.
A third official from the Indo-Pacific says IPEF is a start that may lead to something more substantive. “They need to stretch their muscles a little and get match fit before they can do something serious,” the official says. “It’s sort of like a no-contact pre-season game.”
In an ideal world, allies would like the US to re-join the Trans-Pacific Partnership — a 12-nation trade deal signed in 2016 that Donald Trump left in 2017. But they recognise that big trade deals are now political kryptonite in America. Even before Trump pulled out of TPP, Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rival in the 2016 presidential race, had withdrawn her support.
China in January signed a trade agreement — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations along with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand © Cui Liu/VCG/Getty Images
Yet the stakes have become higher since Beijing last year applied to join “TPP-11” — the revamped successor to TPP, which the US had championed to counter China’s growing economic clout. In another example of that influence, China in January signed a trade agreement — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations along with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
Matthew Goodman, a trade expert at CSIS, a think-tank, says Biden hopes his new framework will make up for the US not being in TPP-11. “The administration has put forward this framework as an alternative it thinks countries in the region will be drawn to and there’s reason to believe they will,” says Goodman, referring to elements such as the digital component.
A US official dismisses suggestions from experts that some countries are less interested in the framework. “There was sort of an assumption in the Washington policy community that if you didn’t do TPP, everyone would just sort of scoff at it,” says the US official. “We’ve been very pleasantly surprised at how much interest there is.”
https://www.ft.com/content/82c13d3b-5b05...3ba075db4f
Admiral John Aquilino, the top US military commander in the Indo-Pacific, recently held an unusual meeting with the head of US Space Command and deputy head of US Cyber Command — in a remote part of the Australian outback.
Aquilino and his colleagues, General James Dickinson and Lieutenant General Charles Moore, had flown all the way to Alice Springs, a dusty town in central Australia for sensitive talks on China with top Australian officials at Pine Gap, a spy satellite facility run by the CIA and the Australian government.
Speaking before their meetings, Aquilino and his colleagues stressed that their visit to Australia was part of a strategy US president Joe Biden has made central to his foreign policy: working more closely with allies and partners to counter China.
“We’ve a few targets,” Aquilino, a former Navy “Top Gun” fighter pilot, said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Number one is highlight the strength of allies and partners to deliver integrated deterrence and prevent conflict here in the Indo-Pacific.”
Washington may be completely immersed in the war in Ukraine, but the Biden administration is also focused on what it sees as its biggest long-term objective — developing a coherent strategy to deal with China.
After the turbulence of the Trump years, when the administration’s hawkish tone on China was consistently undermined by spats with allies, the Biden team is going out of its way to ensure that the US and its partners are closely aligned on China.
As part of that effort, Aquilino spent six days in Australia. Over the past 15 months, the president has reinforced alliances with Japan, South Korea, New Zealand as well as Australia; worked hard to involve India more in China policy; boosted co-operation with European nations from Britain and France to Germany and ratcheted up support for Taiwan.
Yet while Biden has won praise from allies for the security component of his Indo-Pacific strategy, many have been frustrated at what they see as a gaping hole: the lack of a trade and economic agenda. For some critics, an appealing economic strategy is essential to bolstering US leverage in Asia and making sure countries are not too economically reliant on China.
“There has been a real vacuum in American trade policy towards Asia,” says Sheena Greitens, a China expert at the University of Texas in Austin. “Asia is moving ahead on regional trade integration, with some willingness to include China, while the US has been largely absent.”
Biden is hoping to shrink that gap this summer with the launch of an Indo-Pacific economic framework (IPEF). The plan will contain include elements that range from fair trade — including labour and environmental issues — to secure supply chains, infrastructure, clean energy and digital trade.
According to an official from a country in the Indo-Pacific, some Asean countries are very interested, for example, in a digital trade agreement that would set rules for the road.
Admiral John Aquilino, left, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, looks at videos of Chinese structures and buildings on board a P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance plane flying over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in March this year © Aaron Favila/AP
However, it will crucially not include any new access to the US market for products from Asian countries — a reflection of the increasingly tough politics surrounding traditional trade agreements that became so ingrained during the Trump years and which Biden remains sensitive to, particularly ahead of November’s congressional midterm elections.
Critics say that without a strong trade policy, the US risks ending up with a lopsided approach, heavy on military presence but light on economic engagement, which leaves its allies hesitant about its genuine commitment to the long-term future of the region.
Another Indo-Pacific official says countries in the region appreciate that Biden is finally engaging on trade, but adds that the lack of market access is a significant setback.
“It is like a fried egg without the yolk,” he says.
A troubled relationship
Biden has struck a more hawkish tone on China than allies had expected. He has taken Beijing to task over everything from its repression of Uyghurs to its military activity near Taiwan. China in return accuses the US of being a fading hegemonic power and says the days of it being bullied are over.
While Biden and Xi Jinping, his Chinese counterpart, have boosted their personal engagement in recent months, US-China relations are mired at their lowest level since the nations normalised diplomatic relations in 1979.
Biden’s China policy has several goals. He wants to shape the international landscape to raise the cost to China of engaging in coercive behaviour. He also hopes that showing a united front with allies such as Japan and Australia will send a strong signal about deterrence to China and make Xi think twice about invading Taiwan. And he wants to establish what his team describes as “guardrails” to avoid competition veering into conflict.
During his visit to Australia, Aquilino visited US marines who are stationed in Darwin as part of the push to position more US military resources in the region. At Amberley air force base, he greeted a B-2 stealth bomber that had flown from the US in a move that was partly aimed at reminding China about the potency of American military force.
In another example of co-operation, the White House recently said it was expanding Aukus — a security pact the US, UK and Australia agreed last year — to work together on hypersonic missiles. China reacted angrily to Aukus, which will help Australia get nuclear-powered submarines. It views the pact in a similar vein to the “Quad” — the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue grouping of the US, Japan, Australia and India — which Biden has also reinvigorated.
Biden has also had success persuading European nations, particularly Germany, which were previously wary about upsetting Beijing to take a tougher stance on China.
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Yet despite his efforts to deepen relations with allies, Biden has not yet persuaded Xi to reduce coercive activity in Asia. Paul Haenle, director of Carnegie China, a think-tank, says the focus on allies is critical but China is “not playing ball”.
“They do not buy the notion that the change in China’s policies, behaviour, actions and rhetoric under Xi Jinping is contributing in any way to the downturn in US-China relations,” says Haenle, who stresses, however, that Biden should continue to set the table for strategic negotiations in the future and that trade is a critical component.
“The risk is that the optics in the region become the US coming to the table with guns and ammunition and China dealing with the bread and butter issues of trade and economics.”
An alternative framework
Over the next few months, the Biden administration will make its pitch to revert that impression with the launch of its new economic framework.
A third official from the Indo-Pacific says IPEF is a start that may lead to something more substantive. “They need to stretch their muscles a little and get match fit before they can do something serious,” the official says. “It’s sort of like a no-contact pre-season game.”
In an ideal world, allies would like the US to re-join the Trans-Pacific Partnership — a 12-nation trade deal signed in 2016 that Donald Trump left in 2017. But they recognise that big trade deals are now political kryptonite in America. Even before Trump pulled out of TPP, Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rival in the 2016 presidential race, had withdrawn her support.
China in January signed a trade agreement — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations along with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand © Cui Liu/VCG/Getty Images
Yet the stakes have become higher since Beijing last year applied to join “TPP-11” — the revamped successor to TPP, which the US had championed to counter China’s growing economic clout. In another example of that influence, China in January signed a trade agreement — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations along with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
Matthew Goodman, a trade expert at CSIS, a think-tank, says Biden hopes his new framework will make up for the US not being in TPP-11. “The administration has put forward this framework as an alternative it thinks countries in the region will be drawn to and there’s reason to believe they will,” says Goodman, referring to elements such as the digital component.
A US official dismisses suggestions from experts that some countries are less interested in the framework. “There was sort of an assumption in the Washington policy community that if you didn’t do TPP, everyone would just sort of scoff at it,” says the US official. “We’ve been very pleasantly surprised at how much interest there is.”
28-07-2022, 09:20 AM
A waring US leaders amidst a rising china after 2015
28-07-2022, 10:10 AM
28-07-2022, 01:04 PM
ocbc will hit $11.7 after october 2022
https://fifthperson.com/2022-ocbc-bank-agm/
https://fifthperson.com/2022-ocbc-bank-agm/
28-07-2022, 01:07 PM
sg saving bonds vs ocbc 's higher dividend expectation
Strong capital position – higher dividends on the horizon? Higher dividends may also be a potential share price catalyst, given that in the absence of M&A activities, the CET1 ratio of 15.2% is above the optimal operating level. Management has shared that they will not be limited by their target dividend payout ratio range of 40%-50% and that their optimal CET1 ratio is 12.5%-13.5% in the longer term.
https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/aics/st...CBC_SP.xml
Strong capital position – higher dividends on the horizon? Higher dividends may also be a potential share price catalyst, given that in the absence of M&A activities, the CET1 ratio of 15.2% is above the optimal operating level. Management has shared that they will not be limited by their target dividend payout ratio range of 40%-50% and that their optimal CET1 ratio is 12.5%-13.5% in the longer term.
https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/aics/st...CBC_SP.xml
28-07-2022, 01:20 PM
Leading these firms is OCBC, which bought back 3.66 million shares at an average price fo $11.83 per unit, to be held as treasury shares and deducted against its share capital.
https://sbr.com.sg/stocks/news/ocbc-lead...back-rally
https://sbr.com.sg/stocks/news/ocbc-lead...back-rally
28-07-2022, 01:21 PM
if it is less than 75 bp market will really more 75 bp is within the market expectation that is why the market reward it with 400 points up
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebn...b041d37e78
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebn...b041d37e78
28-07-2022, 04:54 PM
company needs to hire workers and workers need to earn money to fight inflation so
Powell said some of the impact of Fed rate increases to date is still building in the economy, and depending on how inflation responds in coming months that could allow the central bank to begin to slow the pace of rate increases.10 hours ago
Powell said some of the impact of Fed rate increases to date is still building in the economy, and depending on how inflation responds in coming months that could allow the central bank to begin to slow the pace of rate increases.10 hours ago
29-07-2022, 05:08 AM
how many sessions of aggressive rate hikes will FED continue to administer when
WASHINGTON—Two straight quarters of economic contraction are putting the Biden administration on the defensive about the economy, as Republican opponents suggest the latest data indicates a recession is under way.
U.S. gross domestic product dropped at a 0.9% annual rate in the second quarter from the first quarter, measured on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. A decline in private inventories and housing investment were among the factors that drove the decrease in output, the department said.
The second-quarter contraction followed the economy’s shrinking at a 1.6% rate during the first quarter. The recent figures mark a sharp pullback from the end of last year, when GDP rose at a 6.9% annual rate in the final quarter of 2021.
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Real Time Economics
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The GDP data is the latest sour sign for the economy. Inflation is hovering at a 40-year high this year, led by surging costs for staples such as gasoline and groceries. Applications for unemployment benefits are trending higher, consumer sentiment has fallen and household spending has slowed.
Those readings pose a political headache for Democrats ahead of midterm elections this fall that will determine which party controls Congress. The Biden administration has sought to convince Americans that the economy has underlying strength, including an unemployment rate near a half-century low. However, polls show voters have a dim view of the economy.
“It’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation,” President Biden said Thursday. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.”
WASHINGTON—Two straight quarters of economic contraction are putting the Biden administration on the defensive about the economy, as Republican opponents suggest the latest data indicates a recession is under way.
U.S. gross domestic product dropped at a 0.9% annual rate in the second quarter from the first quarter, measured on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. A decline in private inventories and housing investment were among the factors that drove the decrease in output, the department said.
The second-quarter contraction followed the economy’s shrinking at a 1.6% rate during the first quarter. The recent figures mark a sharp pullback from the end of last year, when GDP rose at a 6.9% annual rate in the final quarter of 2021.
NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP
Real Time Economics
The latest economic news, analysis and data curated weekdays by WSJ's Jeffrey Sparshott.
PREVIEW
SUBSCRIBE
The GDP data is the latest sour sign for the economy. Inflation is hovering at a 40-year high this year, led by surging costs for staples such as gasoline and groceries. Applications for unemployment benefits are trending higher, consumer sentiment has fallen and household spending has slowed.
Those readings pose a political headache for Democrats ahead of midterm elections this fall that will determine which party controls Congress. The Biden administration has sought to convince Americans that the economy has underlying strength, including an unemployment rate near a half-century low. However, polls show voters have a dim view of the economy.
“It’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation,” President Biden said Thursday. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.”
29-07-2022, 05:45 AM
https://images.app.goo.gl/ETFNjhGxvPFyBRtN7
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/28/polit...index.html
china and us's relationship since
https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/28/polit...index.html
china and us's relationship since
https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china
29-07-2022, 09:33 AM
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