[sgbuffett]

My thesis for discussion

1. US consumer confidence plunge suddenly so have other economic indicators. The commercial real estate sector imploded.with many regional banks in trouble as they hold large amounts of loans in the sector.

2. Powell will be forced to cut rates not because of inflation going down but economy going down.

3. Many investors have already jumped into the market anticipating rate cuts but they never take into account a weakening economy which will hit earnjngs.

4. The rate cuts coinciding with weak economybwill drive US market down rather than up.

5. Rate cuts most potent effects will be seen in emerging markets where international investors have avoided due to weakening currencies and rising rates.

6. Hence lower rates will drive up non US markets. 

S&P500 too high too optimistic to survive a weakening  US economy