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GE2025, Graphed: A Mathematical Look at Voting Power Across Singapore

https://www.ricemedia.co/ge2025-mathemat...wIma61fqGw

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Title: GE2025, Graphed: A Mathematical Look at Voting Power Across Singapore
 
Source: RICE Media,

https://www.ricemedia.co/ge2025-mathemat...singapore/, 2025-05-13
 
Author: Jo Teo, theoretical physicist at the University of Oxford Mathematical Institute.
 
Article Summary:
 
Theme: This article uses mathematical analysis to examine the distribution of voting power and the impact of electoral boundary changes in the Singaporean General Election of 2025 (GE2025).
 
Core Points:
 
- Unequal Voting Power: The article highlights significant discrepancies in voting power across different electoral districts in Singapore. Some MPs represent as few as 22,000 constituents, while others represent over 33,000, leading to a disparity in the level of personalized attention each MP can provide.
- Correlation between Ruling Party Vote Share and Voting Power: The author observes a correlation (though not necessarily causation) between the ruling party's vote share in a district in the 2020 election and the change in elector-to-MP ratio in 2025. Districts where the ruling party performed poorly in 2020 saw increases in their elector-to-MP ratios (reduced voting power), while those with strong support for the ruling party experienced increases in voting power.
- Impact of Electoral Boundary Changes: The article emphasizes the frequent and significant changes in electoral boundaries, impacting voter representation and potentially disadvantaging opposition parties. The author notes that nearly half of the electorate (42 percent) experienced a district change between 2020 and 2025. New districts systematically favored the ruling party's performance.
- Consequences for Voters and MPs: The unequal distribution of voting power and frequent boundary changes have consequences for both voters and MPs. Voters may experience longer wait times for MP sessions or slower responses to community concerns, while MPs face increased workloads with unchanged resources.
 
Phenomenon: The article uses several figures (Fig 1-7) to illustrate the data points, highlighting the disparities in elector-to-MP ratios, changes in ratios between elections, correlation between ruling party vote share and voting power changes, and the impact of boundary changes. Specific examples like Potong Pasir SMC (60 percent increase in elector-to-MP ratio) and Ang Mo Kio GRC (increased voting power despite splitting into two districts) are used to illustrate the findings. The case of Bukit Batok SMC, where boundary changes impacted the opposition party's strategy, is also highlighted.
 
Conclusion: The author concludes by emphasizing that the focus should be on voters and fairness in the electoral system. While not explicitly accusing any party of manipulation, the article raises questions about the fairness and consistency of the current system and encourages continued discussion about democratic representation in Singapore.