[revealer]

Think everyone knows what had happened and why. The next question is how do they handle it. The US snd EU slammed tariff and started the trade war and imposed sanction to restrain themselves from buying and selling some things & services to China.  This unfortunately hurts China, so China is going to fight back,  right?  Then,  there will be the 3rd World war.

[p1acebo]

Nice titties

[sgbuffett]

Think everyone knows what had happened and why. The next question is how do they handle it. The US snd EU slammed tariff and started the trade war and impose sanction to restrain themselves from selling things & services to China.  This unfortunately hurts China, so China is going to fight back,  right?  Then,  there will be the 3rd World war.

China has one sixth of its export to US.

If US put up a tariffs wall you can expect much of this to be wiped out and no way to replace the demand shortfall.

China does import some agriculture from US...if the impose tariffs on these ...like the last time Trump pay the farmers compensation for their loss.

Main problem is China exports much more to US than the other way run. This means the pain is much higher on China side.

Economist expect the Trump tariffs to cut China GDP growth to 2%

[revealer]

They always say dun fight the customers, they r always right, even if they r very wrong. It is easy to identify who is the customer btw the US and China.

[webinarian]

China has one sixth of its export to US.

If US put up a tariffs wall you can expect much of this to be wiped out and no way to replace the demand shortfall.

China does import some agriculture from US...if the impose tariffs on these ...like the last time Trump pay the farmers compensation for their loss.

Main problem is China exports much more to US than the other way run. This means the pain is much higher on China side.

Economist expect the Trump tariffs to cut China GDP growth to 2%

                
China is world factory. Even with tariff by US, Americans still has no choice but to buy at higher prices mostly.  

What other choice you have?   

US will face stiff inflation and lower interest rate program will have to stop and even have to raise interest later on.   

Do you understand, tood?   

.

[revealer]

Heard the story b4. But this was the result after Trump slammed tariff in 2018. Both suffered Covid.

[teaserteam]

Heard the story b4. But this was the result after Trump slammed tariff in 2018.  Both suffered Covid.

Trump must be very happy with the result. He said he is going to slam an additional 60%-100% tariff on China's produce. Please prove him wrong.

[sgbuffett]

                
China is world factory. Even with tariff by US, Americans still has no choice but to buy at higher prices mostly.  

What other choice you have?   

US will face stiff inflation and lower interest rate program will have to stop and even have to raise interest later on.   

Do you understand, tood?   

.

The tariffs will add 0.5% to inflation in US that's why US 10yr bond yield went up recently. 

For China which depends on exports the economy will see growth halved due to this. Because of higher prices demand for China made goods fall in US. The Chinese can move their factories to Mexico or Vietnam but that would mean the jobs will also move there causing unemployment in China.

Anyway for 2yrs China fanboys argue with me that China economy nothing wrong ...very strong etc. Then how is it China now has to do a stimulus bigger than the one after financial crisis to solve its economic problems......when all you moron argue that there was no problem??!!

[teaserteam]

They are all "takuk" of Trump?

https://www.outlookbusiness.com/economy-...draw-funds

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/local-for...15603.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new...s?from=mdr

[WhatDoYouThink!]

china has been shaky for 5000 yrs, but jobless ermaos are the ones getting poorer

[revealer]

They are all "takuk" of Trump?

https://www.outlookbusiness.com/economy-...draw-funds

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/local-for...15603.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new...s?from=mdr

Bangkok post reported similar happening

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...o-thailand

[webinarian]

The tariffs will add 0.5% to inflation in US that's why US 10yr bond yield went up recently. 

...

             
10 yr bond went up is because FED lower interest rates, not because of tariffs to be increased by Trump.   

If you don't understand economics don't just make stupid comments. Primary student doesn't talk like a professor.       

" Bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates. When interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice-versa.

Inverse Relation Between Interest Rates and Bond Prices (investopedia.com)   



.

[watchfirst9]

china has been shaky for 5000 yrs, but jobless ermaos are the ones getting poorer

As long Tiong can move up the higher end products, nothing can stopped their rise.
Only those countries that continue to do low or same value products that need to worry.

Most if not all did not spell out Cn so called stimulus is spread over 4 years, 
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-unveils-839-billion-debt-swap-to-rescue-local-governments
China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump

6 days ago ... Funds for that program — telegraphed last month but without a price tag or timeframe — will be provided through 2028, they said, after the move ..

so not much more than current budget deficit yearly stimulus.

Therefore rally indeed will stalled.

[Blasterlord2]

The tariffs will add 0.5% to inflation in US that's why US 10yr bond yield went up recently. 

For China which depends on exports the economy will see growth halved due to this. Because of higher prices demand for China made goods fall in US. The Chinese can move their factories to Mexico or Vietnam but that would mean the jobs will also move there causing unemployment in China.

Anyway for 2yrs China fanboys argue with me that China economy nothing wrong ...very strong etc. Then how is it China now has to do a stimulus bigger than the one after financial crisis to solve its economic problems......when all you moron argue that there was no problem??!!

I dun think anybody will say that China's economy is very strong. But what people are really saying is that a lot of it is external influence rather than internal. US, because of its uncompetitiveness, is losing its edge every year. They know that it's a matter of time before China will surpass it, and so they will do everything to stop China's rise. They did the same to Japan and will do to any other country which rises in the future.

Internally, China has done a lot of things. For example, it has become better in technologies such as EV, power, railway, space, quantum, communications, batteries etc etc. Of cos they still lag behind in some areas but definitely you can't deny that they've done well in many areas. Moreover, the most important thing is that Xi tried to reduce corruption. Corruption is still rampant but much reduced and not so blatant. 

Despite what China has done, all you do is whole day harp on its stock market and what further stimulus it should do, plus the things that it hasn't done. China is a big country with a big population. You put other countries' policies there and they may not work. Stop thinking that you have all the solutions and their experts haven't thought of them.

[sgbuffett]

I dun think anybody will say that China's economy is very strong. But what people are really saying is that a lot of it is external influence rather than internal. US, because of its uncompetitiveness, is losing its edge every year. They know that it's a matter of time before China will surpass it, and so they will do everything to stop China's rise. They did the same to Japan and will do to any other country which rises in the future.

Internally, China has done a lot of things. For example, it has become better in technologies such as EV, power, railway, space, quantum, communications, batteries etc etc. Of cos they still lag behind in some areas but definitely you can't deny that they've done well in many areas. Moreover, the most important thing is that Xi tried to reduce corruption. Corruption is still rampant but much reduced and not so blatant. 

Despite what China has done, all you do is whole day harp on its stock market and what further stimulus it should do, plus the things that it hasn't done. China is a big country with a big population. You put other countries' policies there and they may not work. Stop thinking that you have all the solutions and their experts haven't thought of them.

China main problem came from the collapse of the propeprty market Evergrande, Country Garden etc. These are not external. 

In fact the external demand was what partially help a china prevent a wipeout of its growth as export grew.

Internal China is facing deflationary pressure as demand is weak. It has to depend on other countries for demand of its goods.

Tech advancements like EV and going to space account for a small part of the economy. Japan also dominated the car and electronics market with big brands like Toyota, Sony and had the fastest high speed rail during the period its economy sank in the lost decade. All these tech cannot compensate for weak domestic  demand. Even if Chna wins quantum and AI race itvñ is admirable but will not help the economic state it is in.

This forum is call "Market Talk" and discusses investment and trading opportunities.  Thus thread discusses China/HK market opportunities. Because of China weak economy there are constant opportunities to make profits shorting. I am not here to take side but to assess the real situation.  If China can implement the right policies  to improve I will trade accordingly.

As for China being a big country so not easy to fix problems..for me it is not important why they are unable to fix the problems...so long as they cannot fix their problems, the economy will weaken and investors/traders will act accordingly.

China has many good aspects like being safe, low crime and if you ask me i rather walk the streets of China than get killed by guns jn America but these have little to do with markets and economy.

[winbig]

China main problem came from the collapse of the propeprty market Evergrande, Country Garden etc. These are not external. 

In fact the external demand was what partially help a china prevent a wipeout of its growth as export grew.

Internal China is facing deflationary pressure as demand is weak. It has to depend on other countries for demand of its goods.

Tech advancements like EV and going to space account for a small part of the economy. Japan also dominated the car and electronics market with big brands like Toyota, Sony and had the fastest high speed rail during the period its economy sank in the lost decade. All these tech cannot compensate for weak domestic  demand. Even if Chna wins quantum and AI race itvñ is admirable but will not help the economic state it is in.

This forum is call "Market Talk" and discusses investment and trading opportunities.  Thus thread discusses China/HK market opportunities. Because of China weak economy there are constant opportunities to make profits shorting. I am not here to take side but to assess the real situation.  If China can implement the right policies  to improve I will trade accordingly.

As for China being a big country so not easy to fix problems..for me it is not important why they are unable to fix the problems...so long as they cannot fix their problems, the economy will weaken and investors/traders will act accordingly.

China has many good aspects like being safe, low crime and if you ask me i rather walk the streets of China than get killed by guns jn America but these have little to do with markets and economy.

Your opinions are probably based on consumption of certain negative Western media about China? Do u know what is economy of a country?

[sgbuffett]

Your opinions are probably based on consumption of certain negative Western media about China? Do u know what is economy of a country?

My opinion is based on numbers coming out of chjna such as industrial profits, PPI, CPI....Housing sales nunber, employment., local govt debt. 

All these numbers point to a weakening Chinese economy.

I am not interested in what Chuna bashing propaganda from the west.

Investors and traders talk with their money ...they are leaving China. FDI has plummeted.

On the other hand, I think many China supporters are influence by Chuna propaganda.

[WhatDoYouThink!]

You hv been posting negative news only about china for yrs, manage to gain some profits from the market or lose even more money?

[WhatDoYouThink!]

You 唱衰 china for yrs, 枉作小人而已嘛，where got make money? Still got nothing to show like other internet gurus

[webinarian]

  
SgButt, 

China collapsing?   

Trade surplus with US in 2024 approaching US$ 1 trillion, new records.   




.

[revealer]

Rightly speaking,  the higher the surpluses,  the more the income and henc,  the higher GDP. What has really happened?  where the extra earnings went to? They disappeared in thin air?

[teaserteam]

             
10 yr bond went up is because FED lower interest rates, not because of tariffs to be increased by Trump.   


.

Yield has followed the Fed Fund rate all the time.  The investor expected Fed rate would go up in the future because

1) The Trump administration's proposed tariffs and tax cuts would drive up inflation;
2)  strong U.S. economic growth.

not sure why the Fed made an emergency rate cut in November; it may have been just to please Trump, who grumbled about why the interest rate was so high. Market expected that 25 bps would come only in December

[p1acebo]

Powell: Strong Economy, Fed Doesn't Need to Rush to Cut Rates, Has Time to Understand Trump's Policy Impact
Powell stated that labor market indicators have returned to a more normal level consistent with the Fed's full employment goal; inflation will continue to decline toward the 2% target, although there may be bumps along the way; the path of interest rates is not preset and depends on data and economic outlook; if the data tells us to slow down rate cuts, slowing down would be a wise move; Congress generally believes that the Fed's independence is very important, and it is too early to draw conclusions about the Trump administration's policies; the impact of AI may come later and be greater than we expect

[p1acebo]

China stocks Cheong!

[p1acebo]

Trumpis is bad for the stock markets, especially the US stock markets

[p1acebo]

Anyway the US markets are mostly priced at 30x earnings.  China markets now only 10x earnings.  No brainer

Follow ML's calls argghhh!

[p1acebo]

Huatey Huatey

[sgbuffett]

China stocks Cheong!

Can it even make up for the 6% drop of HSI over the last one week of Trump election?

Cab it even recover yesterday's losses?

Cheong??....

I think investors should be happen it doesn't close negative again today....given the headwinds.

[p1acebo]

Can it even make up for the 6% drop of HSI over the last one week of Trump election?

Cab it even recover yesterday's losses?

Cheong??....

I think investors should be happen it doesn't close negative again today....given the headwinds.

Your smelly katek backside will split wide open again

[WhatDoYouThink!]

Aiya argue so much for what? Quickly make more money to cover yr past losses and save for retirement

No point to be right yet no make money