![](https://i.imgur.com/CLvY2jA.png")
19-07-2022, 08:12 AM
Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor
Mon 18 Jul 2022 19.38 BST
Desperate efforts in Italy to prevent the fall of Mario Draghi’s government are only the latest political firestorm in Europe tied to Vladimir Putin’s tests of the west’s powers of endurance. Draghi’s foreign minister, Luigi di Maio, suggested it will be Putin who celebrated the fall of another western government if Draghi does not survive a confidence vote in parliament on Wednesday.
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The narrative of a brewing popular revolt against western sanctions on Russia certainly fits well with Putin’s central narrative that time and economics are on his side since the sanctions are damaging European consumers more than Russia’s.
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In France, Emmanuel Macron has been weakened if not muted by the loss of his parliamentary majority to parties more naturally sympathetic to Putin. In Spain, the Socialists, facing elections next year, have just lost their power base in Andalusia, the most populous region.
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In Estonia, the fiercely anti-Putin prime minister, Kaja Kallas, survived last week after her previous coalition government fell in a dispute linked to the country’s inflation rate of 19%, the highest in the 19-nation eurozone.
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In Warsaw, the PiS frets about electoral defeat next autumn, even if the opposition would remain supportive of Ukraine. In Bulgaria, a pro-western government has fallen. And, of course, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has just been let down spectacularly by the self-inflicted demise of Boris Johnson in Britain.
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The politician who has fared best at the ballot box most recently is probably Viktor Orbán, Putin’s greatest ally in Europe.
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Here lies the risk for Russia. It can go for broke in trying to make the EU’s resolve crumble this winter by turning the power off in as many European countries as possible. But Putin will have only one shot at this, and if he fails and Europe’s reserves are big enough to survive to next summer, the west will be on the brink of breaking free from its dependence on Russian gas. Putin will have permanently blown up Russia’s chief source of income and largest gas export market.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/j...-get-worse
Mon 18 Jul 2022 19.38 BST
Desperate efforts in Italy to prevent the fall of Mario Draghi’s government are only the latest political firestorm in Europe tied to Vladimir Putin’s tests of the west’s powers of endurance. Draghi’s foreign minister, Luigi di Maio, suggested it will be Putin who celebrated the fall of another western government if Draghi does not survive a confidence vote in parliament on Wednesday.
......
The narrative of a brewing popular revolt against western sanctions on Russia certainly fits well with Putin’s central narrative that time and economics are on his side since the sanctions are damaging European consumers more than Russia’s.
......
In France, Emmanuel Macron has been weakened if not muted by the loss of his parliamentary majority to parties more naturally sympathetic to Putin. In Spain, the Socialists, facing elections next year, have just lost their power base in Andalusia, the most populous region.
......
In Estonia, the fiercely anti-Putin prime minister, Kaja Kallas, survived last week after her previous coalition government fell in a dispute linked to the country’s inflation rate of 19%, the highest in the 19-nation eurozone.
......
In Warsaw, the PiS frets about electoral defeat next autumn, even if the opposition would remain supportive of Ukraine. In Bulgaria, a pro-western government has fallen. And, of course, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has just been let down spectacularly by the self-inflicted demise of Boris Johnson in Britain.
......
The politician who has fared best at the ballot box most recently is probably Viktor Orbán, Putin’s greatest ally in Europe.
......
Here lies the risk for Russia. It can go for broke in trying to make the EU’s resolve crumble this winter by turning the power off in as many European countries as possible. But Putin will have only one shot at this, and if he fails and Europe’s reserves are big enough to survive to next summer, the west will be on the brink of breaking free from its dependence on Russian gas. Putin will have permanently blown up Russia’s chief source of income and largest gas export market.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/j...-get-worse
