![](https://i.imgur.com/CLvY2jA.png")
04-09-2022, 09:02 AM
Incredibly the effect on ASEAN market is negligible.
In fact look at the chart below this year Indonesia stock market outperform the US by a whopping 19% rising to new high last week.
The STI index is quite stable throughout the wild swings of US market. Even Malaysia stocks outperforming US markets.
Right now a global recession is more than 50% chance in 2023 but the ASEAN region will keep growing ad not suffer recession.
Look at Phillipines it will grow at 6.3% this year and next.
![[Image: RXYWnMr.png]](https://i.imgur.com/RXYWnMr.png)
While the rest of the world from US to China to Europe appear to be in the midst of big economic trouble we are in a region where things are doing well and getting better.
Why is this the case?
1. High commodity prices this is not a main factor but it helps that Indonesia and Malaysia are big exporters.
2. Supply chain restructuring out of China. Vietnam had so much investment last yr the govt is concerned about too much. Others like Malaysia, Thailand, are also seeing strong inflows.
3. This is one of the few regions in the world with positive demographics trend. The 3 big US China Europe are seeing ageing population but this region is seeing growth in workforce especially Indonesia.
4. Improved governance. You look at central banks in the region they became adept at dealing with global instability. Often when US dollar rise so much there is strain on emerging economies. Do example Sri Lanka and Pakistan collaape. But ASEAN neighbors build up sizable reserves and kept debts down.
5. The economic outlook for the region is getting brighter even as crisis hit China and Europe...
6? Situation is a reverse of Asian financial crisis.
![[Image: MnG1bIS.png]](https://i.imgur.com/MnG1bIS.png)
In fact look at the chart below this year Indonesia stock market outperform the US by a whopping 19% rising to new high last week.
The STI index is quite stable throughout the wild swings of US market. Even Malaysia stocks outperforming US markets.
Right now a global recession is more than 50% chance in 2023 but the ASEAN region will keep growing ad not suffer recession.
Look at Phillipines it will grow at 6.3% this year and next.
While the rest of the world from US to China to Europe appear to be in the midst of big economic trouble we are in a region where things are doing well and getting better.
Why is this the case?
1. High commodity prices this is not a main factor but it helps that Indonesia and Malaysia are big exporters.
2. Supply chain restructuring out of China. Vietnam had so much investment last yr the govt is concerned about too much. Others like Malaysia, Thailand, are also seeing strong inflows.
3. This is one of the few regions in the world with positive demographics trend. The 3 big US China Europe are seeing ageing population but this region is seeing growth in workforce especially Indonesia.
4. Improved governance. You look at central banks in the region they became adept at dealing with global instability. Often when US dollar rise so much there is strain on emerging economies. Do example Sri Lanka and Pakistan collaape. But ASEAN neighbors build up sizable reserves and kept debts down.
5. The economic outlook for the region is getting brighter even as crisis hit China and Europe...
6? Situation is a reverse of Asian financial crisis.
I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
![[Image: RsjZXuF.png]](https://i.imgur.com/RsjZXuF.png)
