24-11-2021, 06:06 PM
She made a few good points but I disagree with her. I will explain later.
I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
![](https://i.imgur.com/CLvY2jA.png")
Investing legend Cathie Wood : China has already crashed like Japan in 1989
I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
24-11-2021, 06:08 PM
China is a controlled crash.
USA next crash will be the biggest of all Bubble...
USA next crash will be the biggest of all Bubble...
24-11-2021, 06:22 PM
There are many similarities a massive real estate sector that is sinking, inverted demographics and massive debt.
I think the upside is limited...just like Malaysia and Thailand it does not have the system in place to get out of the well known middle income trap. Malaysia initially has rapid growth like Asian Tigers then stalled taking "forever" to reach developed nations status.
However to say China is crash and going downhill like Japan in 1989-2005, this is unlikely:
1. China per capita GDP is only at Malaysia level whereas Japan was highest in Asia and one of the highest in the world.
2. China central govt has full control of bad debts that caused Japan economy to stall and many banks to become zombies.
3. Most Chinese real estate is purchased with cash unlike in Japan where household borrowed to the max to buy. Likely developers collapse but home buyers are not burdened by debts.
4. Yuan is not freely traded compare with Yen. This gives China govt another lever to play with.
5. The Chinese govt jammed on the brakes and crested this slowdown. The Japanese govt press on the accelerator to inflate the bubble until it collapsed due to unsustainability.
6 . I see the banks are ring fenced and China govt has alot more control over the situation.
7. The Japanese economy suffered from high costs and unfavorable exchange rate after plaza accord ...so much of its problems compounded.
8. The PE ratio in Japan was 66 like US dot com bubble. China now is dirt cheap below 15.....Alibaba is at a fraction of Amazon, ...when you already so cheap...you can go lower but very hard to " crash" and have decent chance of going up
China's demographics problems will come into play over next 20yrs but per capita income is still very low with room to grow. Japan in 1989 was already very high income and the only way was down.
I think the upside is limited...just like Malaysia and Thailand it does not have the system in place to get out of the well known middle income trap. Malaysia initially has rapid growth like Asian Tigers then stalled taking "forever" to reach developed nations status.
However to say China is crash and going downhill like Japan in 1989-2005, this is unlikely:
1. China per capita GDP is only at Malaysia level whereas Japan was highest in Asia and one of the highest in the world.
2. China central govt has full control of bad debts that caused Japan economy to stall and many banks to become zombies.
3. Most Chinese real estate is purchased with cash unlike in Japan where household borrowed to the max to buy. Likely developers collapse but home buyers are not burdened by debts.
4. Yuan is not freely traded compare with Yen. This gives China govt another lever to play with.
5. The Chinese govt jammed on the brakes and crested this slowdown. The Japanese govt press on the accelerator to inflate the bubble until it collapsed due to unsustainability.
6 . I see the banks are ring fenced and China govt has alot more control over the situation.
7. The Japanese economy suffered from high costs and unfavorable exchange rate after plaza accord ...so much of its problems compounded.
8. The PE ratio in Japan was 66 like US dot com bubble. China now is dirt cheap below 15.....Alibaba is at a fraction of Amazon, ...when you already so cheap...you can go lower but very hard to " crash" and have decent chance of going up
China's demographics problems will come into play over next 20yrs but per capita income is still very low with room to grow. Japan in 1989 was already very high income and the only way was down.
I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
24-11-2021, 08:08 PM
As much as I dislike the CCP, it is one of the reasons why CN will not crash like JP or similar politically weak countries. CN also has a large enough domestic economy and talent pool. It is the same reason why it can close borders to outsiders for the past 1.5 years and can continue to do so.
24-11-2021, 08:12 PM
According to Banana Gordon Chang , China already crashed many years ago! 
24-11-2021, 08:13 PM
aiya everything will go up and down like waves. why worry so much? just be prepared and ride on the waves when they come
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