[sgbuffett]

I am not so much interested in the macroscopic doom and gloom collapse but down to specific companies. We know most are probably dead from  debts and have defaulted.

This analysts pointed out some very intricate details and what is still knowable in this confusing messy situation

[sgbuffett]

Listening to what happened one reasonable conclusion is the govt wants to nationalise most of the property sector  and reduce private sector.

Housing construction is something a govt can do well so why let thousands of chaotic private companies cause so many debt problems.
Likely HDB model - Housing is for living concept.

Whether the property sector crisis is planned or not everything falls naturally into the govt hands. Because their onshore debt is large and the govt does not want it to bring down the bank they will do a rescue to yake over projects and cash of the companies and nationalise them.

Probably only a handful like Vanke can survive this and form s small private sector. The rest the govt can take over through a national rescue fund and form part of the state owned enterprise ...something like HDB.

It also solves the perennial corruption issues between developers and local govt.

The direct sale of housing to citizens then form a steady revenue stream for the Central and local govt.

If this property crisis is managed well it can be brilliantly resolved turning the mess into gold.solving many problems at the same time....

If they navigate out of this well,  I will indeed be impressed.

If this was their plan all along and they foresee it leads to socialised housing on a big scale then they have to be really brilliant. 

Today we see the housing malaise in capitalist states with homelessness becoming the new epidemic. This is an opportunity to demonstrate tye beneficial aspects of socialism and some "success" tk reduce inequality....that is if they can pull it off.

Western commentators who ogle at the collapse of property developers one by one thinking the China govt has "lost it" may be missing the big picture. It all started with the 3 red lines and deliberate actions by the govt to cool the property sectors. If one takes the helicopter view....all the Evergrande mess and so on may play to a planned goal. That is what they are not seeing. The PBOC stress tested the China banks no less than 10 times during this turmoil means they already assess the impact and plan for the collapse.

[Niubee]

Not interested. Are you invested in China property or China property stocks ??

[sgbuffett]

Not interested. Are you invested in China property or China property stocks ??

No .I am interested in China banks but need to understand the bigger picture.

Only one property developer I am.interested in is Vanke but my interest is not that strong.