[sgbuffett]

2008 Lehman collapse came after dot.com bubble  collapse followed by 911 in 2001 and a recession then a stock market bull run 2003-2007. 

All the drama over a 9yr period ending in another collapse in 2008 of more than 50%.



How did happen? In 2007 the Fed hike interest rates to 5.25% in April 2007. It burst the housing bubble but the stock market kept risng for 6 more months as economy was strong 


The current Fed funds rate is at 2.5% and will rise to 3.25% almost for sure. 

If inflation does not go down there is another 0.75 and 0.5% hike expected this takes us to 4.5% by end of this year 

The US market not cheap. 
Earnings growth is slowing.
Europe is already in recession.
China has its own serious  troubles.

The only way for the Dow and Nasdaq to sustain it's current valuation is for inflation to come down fast enough to not have the 2 rate hikes after the next hike.

Even if this good scenario of Fed funds staying at 3.25% until end of the year without further hikes, there is no impetus for markets to go higher as earnings growth is just not there. Market may rally 5-8% due to short term trading action  then get stopped...

Anyway, the warning was out since April 2022 when many credible investors warned of the impending storm:

https://sgtalk.net/Thread-APRIL-2022-Sup...ere?page=1

. You look at April until now these investors are right and markets came down. If they are right there will be bigger trouble ahead.

[icarus]

Hiking rate is not the only solution

Kicking the can down the road is the other

[sgbuffett]

Yesterday FedEx gave terrible forecast stock plunge 15%.

Adobe ...Adam Khoo fav stock plunged.

Investors will wake .....the main problem is not this but many stocks even if good are priced too high.