How to use integrate equity to invest in S&P500
#1

This is research work that shows the correlation of stock price/integrated equity and subsequent 10yr inflation adjusted returns.

Basically it tells you this very simple thing when you buy stocks when price is high your returns in next 10yrs is low.
If you buy US stocks now your future returns is negative 

You need to patiently wait for stock prices to fall further then you can get positive returns when you buy.

Basically those firing money into US markets now may be doing it too early.

Not the chart is for long term average  10 yr returns. Yr by Yr.it may deviate in short term. It can only be used for long term.. 

The long term correlation is 0.92

[Image: QAzDgRr.jpg]

The detailed research for this can be found below.
If you have time you can go through the stats and the integrated equity calculation.

https://osam.com/Commentary/the-earnings-mirage

I did the computation for 3 markets Singapore, Japan and Israel. The expected returns are positive in these markets.

I believe it is positive for Malaysia also.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply
#2

Is like saying if the sky is sunny, it will not rain. Duh….

Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine Big Grin
Reply
#3

April month i close another positive for 4 consecutive month.. Since Jan i started to monitor.
Reply
#4

(02-05-2022, 07:35 AM)Sharexchange Wrote:  April month i close another positive for 4 consecutive month.. Since Jan i started to monitor.

For sg stocks?...markets is decorrelating from US.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
Reply
#5

(02-05-2022, 08:15 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  For sg stocks?...markets is decorrelating from US.

Sg..bursa..hk..
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)