![](https://i.imgur.com/CLvY2jA.png")
02-10-2022, 08:27 AM
There few safe havens from now until next year.
The phrase "Global Recession" with major economies US, China, Europe doing poorly.
I have been looking through historic data. In the past US downturn tends to drag entire world down in sych but today situation s changed as economies reconfigure
During pandemic in 2020 the stock market falls around the world were synchronise. Heck it is a pandemic so a biological contagion no country can avoid.
However the current fall is desynchornised.
With Fed hiking so intensively PE compression takes place in US market followed by earnings recession then actual recession. The bottom may be some way from now.
Many strategise to buy US at lower level the ride the cycle up.
But the world order may change and uS may not be the best place.
Countries with very long runway for growth, demographic dividends, educational gains, improve governance will lead equity returns jn the coming decades. The non Western non European and non East Asian world, hold the baton for next phase of growth. India, Indonesia, Brazil....potentially Vietnam.
The rising dollar creates extremely undervalued currencies in these countries...we may see accelerated returns once the Fed stop its hikes.
Below is Brazil vs USA. Look the last part of the chart for the past 1 week while US market plunged Brazil went up.
![[Image: 63p18FJ.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/63p18FJ.jpg)
The phrase "Global Recession" with major economies US, China, Europe doing poorly.
I have been looking through historic data. In the past US downturn tends to drag entire world down in sych but today situation s changed as economies reconfigure
During pandemic in 2020 the stock market falls around the world were synchronise. Heck it is a pandemic so a biological contagion no country can avoid.
However the current fall is desynchornised.
With Fed hiking so intensively PE compression takes place in US market followed by earnings recession then actual recession. The bottom may be some way from now.
Many strategise to buy US at lower level the ride the cycle up.
But the world order may change and uS may not be the best place.
Countries with very long runway for growth, demographic dividends, educational gains, improve governance will lead equity returns jn the coming decades. The non Western non European and non East Asian world, hold the baton for next phase of growth. India, Indonesia, Brazil....potentially Vietnam.
The rising dollar creates extremely undervalued currencies in these countries...we may see accelerated returns once the Fed stop its hikes.
Below is Brazil vs USA. Look the last part of the chart for the past 1 week while US market plunged Brazil went up.
I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
