Suddenly, everyone is de-dollarising
#1

UPDATED DEC 22, 2022, 7:27 PM SGT


SINGAPORE – King Dollar is facing a revolt.

Tired of a too-strong and newly weaponised greenback, some of the world’s biggest economies are exploring ways to circumvent the United States currency.

Smaller nations, including at least a dozen in Asia, are also experimenting with de-dollarisation.

In addition, corporates around the world are selling an unprecedented portion of their debt in local currencies, wary of further US dollar strength.

No one is saying the greenback will be dethroned any time soon from its reign as the principal medium of exchange.

But not too long ago, it was almost unthinkable for countries to explore payment mechanisms that bypassed the US currency or the Swift network that underpins the global financial system.

Now, the sheer strength of the dollar, its use under President Joe Biden to enforce sanctions on Russia in 2022 and new technological innovations are together encouraging nations to start chipping away at its hegemony.

“The Biden administration made an error in weaponising the US dollar and the global payment system,” Mr John Mauldin, an investment strategist and president of Millennium Wave Advisors, wrote in a newsletter last week.

“That will force non-US investors and nations to diversify their holdings outside the traditional safe haven of the US.”

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Plans already under way in Russia and China to promote their currencies for international payments

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Moscow, for example, began seeking remuneration for energy supplies in roubles.

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Bangladesh, Kazakhstan and Laos were also stepping up negotiations with China to boost their use of the renminbi. India began talking up more loudly the internationalisation of the rupee and, just this month, started securing a bilateral payment mechanism with the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

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It is not just the sanctions that are helping to accelerate the de-dollarisation trend. The US currency’s rampant gains have also made Asian officials more aggressive in their attempts at diversification.

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The dollar’s strength is a huge headache for Asian nations who have seen prices of food purchases soar, debt-repayment burdens worsen and poverty deepen.

Sri Lanka is a case in point, defaulting on its dollar debt for the first time ever as a soaring greenback crippled the nation’s ability to pay up. Vietnamese officials at one point blamed dollar appreciation for fuel supply struggles.

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dollar-denominated bond sales by non-financial companies have dropped to a record-low 37 per cent of the global total in 2022. They have accounted for more than 50 per cent of debt sold in any one year on several occasions in the past decade.

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Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand have set up systems for transactions between one another in their local currencies rather than the US dollar. Taiwanese can pay with a QR code system that is linked with Japan.

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it is unlikely the dollar’s dominant position will be challenged any time soon. The strength and size of the US economy remain unchallenged

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The renminbi’s share of all foreign-exchange trades, for example, may have climbed to 7 per cent, but the dollar still makes up one side of 88 per cent of such transactions.

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King Dollar may still reign supreme for decades to come, but the building momentum for transactions in alternate currencies shows no sign of slowing


https://www.straitstimes.com/business/su...-us-dollar
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#2

It is not suddenly. It was already and behind the curve
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#3


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#4

Need an alternative to SWIFT... If don't have (crypto was one bright spot until the recent KOs), uncle Sam might do something to jerk up USD soon... Give you chance to take USD you don't take... Start recalling USD or asking co to onshore or face penalty will happen...
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#5

【中国减持美债至8700亿美元,创2010年6月以来新低】当地时间1月18日,美国财政部公布2022年11月的国际资本流动报告(TIC)。根据最新数据,2022年11月,美国国债的前两大“债主”分别为日本和中国(大陆)。

其中,日本结束连续4个月的减持,当月增持178亿美元至1.0822万亿美元。中国则连续第三个月减持美国国债,当月减持78亿美元至8700亿美元,持仓规模为2010年6月以来新低。

从全年来看,2022年年初,日本和中国所持美债分别为1.3031万亿美元、1.0601万亿美元;截止到2022年11月,日本和中国所持美债分别较年初降低2209亿美元和1901亿美元。

日本在五个月内首度增持美债。日本从去年7月到10月连续四个月减持,其中9月一度大幅减持796亿美元,而且持仓在8月到10月连续三个月创至少2019年12月以来三年多新低。

中国所持的美债于去年5月减持至9808亿美元,为2010年6月以来首次持仓不足1万亿美元。在2022年7月、8月小幅增持后,9月、10月、11月,中国均在减持美债。

其实不止中国和日本,在2022年,其他10多个美债主要海外持有者均出现了不同程度的抛售。

那么造成美债“失宠”的原因是什么?中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际大宗商品研究室主任、研究员王永中此前告诉观察者网,美国制裁并冻结俄罗斯及阿富汗等国资产让投资美债的安全性受到质疑。此外,美国通货膨胀导致“投资美债收益减少”也是原因之一。

王永中指出,“美国国债本身也是风险资产,所以我们的持有也在不断地下降”。中国对海外资产进行更灵活、更多元化配置是大势所趋。

不过,他也表示,美元资产目前仍是中国非常重要的海外资产,“美元虽然说购买力大幅下跌,但它仍属于‘强势货币’。购买其他国家的债券,如欧洲的、日本的债券,所获得的回报是不如美债的。”

中国社科院学部委员、前央行货币政策委员会委员余永定去年5月曾表示,减持美国国债是中国调整海外资产负债结构的一个措施,其目的是为了提高中国海外资产的安全性,以及提高海外投资的净收益。

美财政部网站公布数据还显示,11月份外国对美国长期、短期证券和银行流水的净买入额为2131亿美元。其中,外国私人净流入为2127亿美元,外国官方净流入为4亿美元。


11月,外国居民增持了长期美国证券,净买入1406亿美元。外国私人投资者净买入1528亿美元,而外国官方机构净卖出122亿美元。美国居民减少了长期外国证券的持有量,净抛售了309亿美元。

外国居民持有的美国国债增加47亿美元。外国居民持有的所有以美元计价的短期美国证券和其他托管负债减少了10亿美元。银行对外国居民以美元计价的净负债增加了490亿美元。

美国财政部已定于2023年2月15日发布2022年12月的财政部国际资本(TIC)数据。


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#6

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#7


Joe Biden's China and Russia Nightmare Is Coming True for the US Dollar
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#8

RMB bond is rising   Rotfl

Investors are dumping US bond.

I am waiting 6 mths US bond to break 5% yield. It has stuck at 4.8% for about a month.

“Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind"
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#9

The depreciation of USD is alarming….
Let see how long USD will lose its World reserve currency status.

“Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind"
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#10

SG gov already planning and preparing for this eventually long ago...Then Ukraine war came which confirms the unspoken worry of being over-exposed to USD..

https://www.cnbc.com/2014/04/28/singapor...enter.html
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#11

(23-12-2022, 03:46 PM)red3 Wrote:  It is not suddenly. It was already and behind the curve

That curve is part of the longer trend many missed - USD domination is ending. Question is how to do this without upsetting the global trade and commerce.

That is what Beijing wants  - A "soft landing" away from USD control and a stable "take off" of multi-currency system.

Our grandchildren will see a different World from us in the medium future.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/21/chi...-currency/
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#12

de-dollarization will also help to stabilize the world and not into so much wars by USA hegemony and interest.

It is also karma time for the Yanks...


Smile
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#13

(28-01-2023, 10:43 AM)RiseofAsia Wrote:  The depreciation of USD is alarming….
Let see how long USD will lose its World reserve currency status.

IMO, this is like a choice - Either u prepare for or ignoring the Climate change. Many don't feel it nor find it worrying, so tend to do the later.

But when that moment of unstoppable change finally arrive, those who are NOT prepared will experience the most pain.
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#14

(28-01-2023, 10:43 AM)RiseofAsia Wrote:  The depreciation of USD is alarming….
Let see how long USD will lose its World reserve currency status.
This is serious................. Big Grin
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#15

this is a sign of the greater WAR is coming
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#16

(28-01-2023, 11:59 AM)grotesqueness Wrote:  this is a sign of the greater WAR is coming

War between US and Ukraine
War between US and China
War between US and Russia
War between US and N. Korea.


crying
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#17

(28-01-2023, 11:55 AM)debono Wrote:  This is serious................. Big Grin
(28-01-2023, 11:59 AM)grotesqueness Wrote:  this is a sign of the greater WAR is coming

You guys joker lah - how can this be "serious" nor "greater" war when pple trying to siam USD ?  Hv u not heard while busy funding trillion US$ war in Ukraine, US Gov cannot even agree on paying salaries to their gov workers ?

Big Grin
AMERICAN politicians are once again playing the game of chicken with the country’s debt ceiling. Late last week (Jan 19), Washington’s debt limit of US$31.4 trillion was reached.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion...obal-trade
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