[sgbuffett]

I used the word could because I am not that certain given the war is still on. But here is the chart 


Observations

1. Most of the drop occurred before the war even start.
2. 24 Feb Russia declare war and market plunged. Thie bottom of 25 Feb has not been breached.
3. Market bounced up then start to fall due to secondaey effects of higher oil price and inflation fears. This pushed the market to. A second bottom.

If you look at VIX aka fear index, you see the pandemic caused a much bigger spike than the war.



While the war looks scary in terms of human lives and Putin's threat, the stock market iss not that fearful however investors are more afraid now than when rate hikes were announced ad when fed said it will stop the taper.

When will bottom be formed and markets start moving up.

For many wars, the market bottom on the day war is declared or on the first day of war as they have no economic fallout. Example is the Afghan war and Falklands war. This one unfortunately has.

So far the biggest impact is making inflation worse. With oil and cmmodity prices moving up as they expect trade sanctions to cut Russian supply. The rise is more due to fear of supply disruption than a real disruption as Russian oil has not been banned yet.

When will the market bottom and go up. On average markets take 2 weeks in situation of war to put in a bottom. Based on history markets take twices as long to recover the losses than to incur losses. Means it will take 1 month to recover what was lost since the war start and maybe 3 months or more to recover from when news of pending war started.

The market will start moving up today or next few days once cmmodity and oil price stabilise and stop moving up indicative that the effects of fear in those maakrets have peaked.

However the trajectory of the war can take unexpected turns if Putin decides to expand it to NATO but that is unlikely.

[RiseofAsia]

Once go into urban ops, the war will drag even longer. I already warned better don’t buy stock…Good luck!

[sgbuffett]

My interest or target of buying is not the Dow or STI as the Dow has only fallen 13%. This is hardly a big bargain.

My interest is in European markets where the fall is 20+% in markets like Germany.

These economies are moving quickly out of the pandemic and recovering and offer the best bargains resultung from fear of war.

[sgbuffett]

Once go into urban ops, the war will drag even longer. I already warned better don’t buy stock…Good luck!

Say it drags on for 9 months. What happens? It just fall into background like iraq war ...first day everyone watch the war. 2 weeks later some people still watch. 1 month later they watch Netflix.

So long as it does not esclaate to NATO it becomes like any other war....there has been many wars and each time the market recovered and went higher...