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29-04-2023, 12:20 PM
While China and the US know they need to deconflict, "there is growing belief that the unavoidable trajectory is toward war," Dalio said.
The 2024 US election will also worsen tensions, Dalio predicted. Politicians seeking reelection will likely try to keep pushing limits with Beijing to appeal to anti-China sentiment from voters, said the billionaire.
"The hawkish political influences in the United States will exert more pressure on the relationship over the next 18 months because of the emergence of the 2024 election season," Dalio wrote. "That will be a very risky period because China and the US are now already on the brink of war."
The US and China, he said, are "like two giants wrestling with each other six inches from the edge of a cliff and threatening to pull others into this dangerous fight."
"All things considered, I think that the greater provocations will most likely come from the American side, which I worry will cause a tit-for-tat crossing of the line," Dalio wrote.
The billionaire recommended several steps to de-escalate tensions. This included having Biden host Xi in San Francisco at the November APEC meeting, and sending key US policymakers and congressional leaders to visit China.
"Have all parties make clear that peace is better than war," Dalio said. "That working on agreeing on ways to reduce the probabilities of having the worst types of wars is a top priority, and that gradually building agreements to reduce the progressively less bad types of conflict would be the best path."
https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dali...UuNTkuMC4w
The 2024 US election will also worsen tensions, Dalio predicted. Politicians seeking reelection will likely try to keep pushing limits with Beijing to appeal to anti-China sentiment from voters, said the billionaire.
"The hawkish political influences in the United States will exert more pressure on the relationship over the next 18 months because of the emergence of the 2024 election season," Dalio wrote. "That will be a very risky period because China and the US are now already on the brink of war."
The US and China, he said, are "like two giants wrestling with each other six inches from the edge of a cliff and threatening to pull others into this dangerous fight."
"All things considered, I think that the greater provocations will most likely come from the American side, which I worry will cause a tit-for-tat crossing of the line," Dalio wrote.
The billionaire recommended several steps to de-escalate tensions. This included having Biden host Xi in San Francisco at the November APEC meeting, and sending key US policymakers and congressional leaders to visit China.
"Have all parties make clear that peace is better than war," Dalio said. "That working on agreeing on ways to reduce the probabilities of having the worst types of wars is a top priority, and that gradually building agreements to reduce the progressively less bad types of conflict would be the best path."
https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dali...UuNTkuMC4w
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