05-07-2022, 12:08 AM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/...465bd03628
U.S. Recession Already Six Months Old, Says Fed Model
The prospects of a U.S. recession have been rising throughout 2022 as the Fed committed to rate hikes and the yield curve inverted in March. Stocks, now in a bear market, had their worst start to the year since 1970, and inflation has hit 40-year highs. The economic news has not been good.
Q1 2022 GDP growth was negative, suggesting a recession may have started. Now, the Atlanta GDPNow model signals Q2 growth may be negative too. If that forecast holds then the recession that seemed likely on an 18-month view, may be here already.
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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is tracking this data, and it looks bad. At the time of writing, roughly a -1% decline in GDP for Q2 is on the cards.
U.S. Recession Already Six Months Old, Says Fed Model
The prospects of a U.S. recession have been rising throughout 2022 as the Fed committed to rate hikes and the yield curve inverted in March. Stocks, now in a bear market, had their worst start to the year since 1970, and inflation has hit 40-year highs. The economic news has not been good.
Q1 2022 GDP growth was negative, suggesting a recession may have started. Now, the Atlanta GDPNow model signals Q2 growth may be negative too. If that forecast holds then the recession that seemed likely on an 18-month view, may be here already.
.....
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is tracking this data, and it looks bad. At the time of writing, roughly a -1% decline in GDP for Q2 is on the cards.