[sgbuffett]

The real bottom comes when investors discount all the problems ahead. We know we are not at the bottom of US market because many things have not happened yet.

Today Carnival cruise jump 7% off a deep selloff.
From my experience looking at at numerous  companies like those in O&G and commodity  that have gone bust, Carnival Cruise is likely to be insolvent in the coming  months.

Recently it refinanced its debt at 10% interest. It has $35B in debt and negative cashflow so it has to keep borrowing more and more .it can do so when interest rates are low but the fiancial model is broken. But investors are still coming to buy each time it dips.

Investors need to give up on such no hope companies ..only when they do so we get a real bottom...and not a price action trading bottom we see now.

The industry as a whole grew on debt ...mainly because Cruise ships are expensive to build and they always need to invest in more costly ones to compete and phase out older ships. Cost of operations are high and cashflow is negative even in good times. This industry is headed for trouble as it is build on ability to borrow.