![](https://i.imgur.com/CLvY2jA.png")
01-03-2022, 03:48 PM
Let's face it.
1. Nobody abides by all the international laws, especially if you keenly support the warmongering foreign policies of the USA.
2. But everybody abides by some international rules.
3. A rules-based international order never ever existed, throughout human history. This much cannot be clearer.
Any politician who lies without batting an eyelid is not remotely honest, either to himself or to his people. For God's sake, the Chinese are not idiots. You cannot seriously address global challenges by lying to yourself. So much for "global leadership".
The question is not whether the Chinese economy will overtake the US. But by how much, and how soon. Elon Musk openly entertained the prospect that it will surpass the US, by a factor of 2 - a reasonably modest estimate. I believe officials within the US government have little choice but to start accepting the inevitable, albeit begrudgingly.
The US sometimes behaves like a jealous God. Singapore pledges allegiance for the umpteenth time. The Singapore government is filled with some of the nation's brightest and most well-paid scholars whose judgment shouldn't be simply dismissed, although there's still every chance they may miscalculate. Even their late founding Prime Minister, LKY wasn't infallible. Visionary observers may ponder why the US will ultimately fail to contain China and upcoming emerging powers, despite overwhelming systemic advantages and international influences, at least in theory. America should be more forward-looking and be ready for the day it is neither the Number 1 nor Number 2 power, in the not-too-distant future. There must be at least the psychological preparedness.
The evolving nature of Sino-Western partnership in 100 years:
In the 1st world war, China had no say.
In the 2nd world war, China had little say.
In the Cold War, China emerged as a force to be reckoned with.
Today, China is regarded as a fierce strategic competitor that will determine the future, increasingly. Hence, the insecurity and anxiety.
China and the Western nations (especially those in continental Europe) will surely form some kind of loose alliance again, this time more on equal terms. But the Western geopolitical landscape will be undergoing radical changes, far sooner-than-expected.
No serious power abides by the international law that puts it national security under grave threat. Not Russia. Not the UK. Definitely not the USA. Not even Japan, nor Vietnam. Get real. China is exercising maximum restraint, for now. But when it considers the time ripe, it will spare little mercy in hitting back with terrifying force and power. It is no pushover, when this is an international contest of not only brute strength, but also stamina and endurance in the long run. If some states believe they can just collude and conspire to ignore China's legit security concerns, then China will not sit back and watch. Fair game. Moreover, it is downright myopic pinning hopes on America, or a puppet Chinese regime.
Chinese are not native Americans. It is virtually impossible to wipe China off the map, without unthinkable consequences to all concerned stakeholders in the global economy. Therefore, never do stupid things to invite bad karma, when the chickens come home to roost. Heed this warning. The Chinese had been fighting colossal conflicts with some of the heaviest casualties in human history, since before Christ. The warring states period, followed by Han expedition against Xiongnu to the Anshi and Taiping rebellions, that's how China emerged as a state and the dominant power in the region.
Vietnam is not going to replace China in the global supply chain. Nor is India in the foreseeable future, though not completely writing the South Asian giant off due to its huge potential. But it has no chance of succeeding, without meaningful systemic reform. Never assume that the global supply chain is forever gonna be hijacked by US interests. That is not going to last. Most nations are overawed by the USA. Most were overawed by the British empire in 1920. It defeated Germany in World War 1, at the apex of power and international influence, as the US dreamt of global leadership. Most would be overawed by the Qing empire in 1820. It was by far, the world's largest economy, while the UK was heavily in debt, owing to the resistance against Napoleon. But history dramatically changed, within a few decades!
Yi Jun
1. Nobody abides by all the international laws, especially if you keenly support the warmongering foreign policies of the USA.
2. But everybody abides by some international rules.
3. A rules-based international order never ever existed, throughout human history. This much cannot be clearer.
Any politician who lies without batting an eyelid is not remotely honest, either to himself or to his people. For God's sake, the Chinese are not idiots. You cannot seriously address global challenges by lying to yourself. So much for "global leadership".
The question is not whether the Chinese economy will overtake the US. But by how much, and how soon. Elon Musk openly entertained the prospect that it will surpass the US, by a factor of 2 - a reasonably modest estimate. I believe officials within the US government have little choice but to start accepting the inevitable, albeit begrudgingly.
The US sometimes behaves like a jealous God. Singapore pledges allegiance for the umpteenth time. The Singapore government is filled with some of the nation's brightest and most well-paid scholars whose judgment shouldn't be simply dismissed, although there's still every chance they may miscalculate. Even their late founding Prime Minister, LKY wasn't infallible. Visionary observers may ponder why the US will ultimately fail to contain China and upcoming emerging powers, despite overwhelming systemic advantages and international influences, at least in theory. America should be more forward-looking and be ready for the day it is neither the Number 1 nor Number 2 power, in the not-too-distant future. There must be at least the psychological preparedness.
The evolving nature of Sino-Western partnership in 100 years:
In the 1st world war, China had no say.
In the 2nd world war, China had little say.
In the Cold War, China emerged as a force to be reckoned with.
Today, China is regarded as a fierce strategic competitor that will determine the future, increasingly. Hence, the insecurity and anxiety.
China and the Western nations (especially those in continental Europe) will surely form some kind of loose alliance again, this time more on equal terms. But the Western geopolitical landscape will be undergoing radical changes, far sooner-than-expected.
No serious power abides by the international law that puts it national security under grave threat. Not Russia. Not the UK. Definitely not the USA. Not even Japan, nor Vietnam. Get real. China is exercising maximum restraint, for now. But when it considers the time ripe, it will spare little mercy in hitting back with terrifying force and power. It is no pushover, when this is an international contest of not only brute strength, but also stamina and endurance in the long run. If some states believe they can just collude and conspire to ignore China's legit security concerns, then China will not sit back and watch. Fair game. Moreover, it is downright myopic pinning hopes on America, or a puppet Chinese regime.
Chinese are not native Americans. It is virtually impossible to wipe China off the map, without unthinkable consequences to all concerned stakeholders in the global economy. Therefore, never do stupid things to invite bad karma, when the chickens come home to roost. Heed this warning. The Chinese had been fighting colossal conflicts with some of the heaviest casualties in human history, since before Christ. The warring states period, followed by Han expedition against Xiongnu to the Anshi and Taiping rebellions, that's how China emerged as a state and the dominant power in the region.
Vietnam is not going to replace China in the global supply chain. Nor is India in the foreseeable future, though not completely writing the South Asian giant off due to its huge potential. But it has no chance of succeeding, without meaningful systemic reform. Never assume that the global supply chain is forever gonna be hijacked by US interests. That is not going to last. Most nations are overawed by the USA. Most were overawed by the British empire in 1920. It defeated Germany in World War 1, at the apex of power and international influence, as the US dreamt of global leadership. Most would be overawed by the Qing empire in 1820. It was by far, the world's largest economy, while the UK was heavily in debt, owing to the resistance against Napoleon. But history dramatically changed, within a few decades!
Yi Jun
