13-03-2022, 09:10 PM
I posted this chart one month ago.
I took some time to verify this
The higher you buy the market index the lower your long term retruns will be this is common sense. If S&P500 is 10000 in 10yrs and you bought today at 10000 your return is zero 10yrs from now. But bought at 5000 your return is 100%
So lower the price the higher your return 10yrs from now.
Using this chart investor can use it to forecast annual returns for nextv10yrs and can do so accurately. The red line is actual and blue line prediction. The prediction is very accurate throughout the years.
Basically it says that if you buy noww your average return per yr for next 10yrs is negative 8%
The market will be 50% lower in 10yrs.
Some discussion on this here.
I took some time to verify this
The higher you buy the market index the lower your long term retruns will be this is common sense. If S&P500 is 10000 in 10yrs and you bought today at 10000 your return is zero 10yrs from now. But bought at 5000 your return is 100%
So lower the price the higher your return 10yrs from now.
Using this chart investor can use it to forecast annual returns for nextv10yrs and can do so accurately. The red line is actual and blue line prediction. The prediction is very accurate throughout the years.
Basically it says that if you buy noww your average return per yr for next 10yrs is negative 8%
The market will be 50% lower in 10yrs.
Some discussion on this here.
I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.