SG Talk

Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker wrote in an article that even an eventual victory by the US and South Korea would be “meaningless” in the face of widespread wreckage

The two base this prediction on the fact that North Korea has abandoned its three-decades-old policy goal of normalizing relations with the US and has started to become vocal about using military force since early 2023.

The article goes on to point out how Kim, in order to pursue the goal that his father and grandfather failed to obtain, “poured his prestige” into the first-ever summit between North Korea and the US, only to be rudely snubbed by his American counterparts.

According to the two experts, North Korea has a sizable large nuclear arsenal with “potentially 50 or 60 warheads deliverable on missiles that can reach all of South Korea, virtually all of Japan, and Guam.”

If military action were to occur, the scholars wrote, “even an eventual US-ROK victory in the ensuing war will be empty. The wreckage, boundless and bare, will stretch as far as the eye can see.”

https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_...24524.html

Taiwan and SK will be taken. All USA have is Japan. Russia far east will eventually reck Japan with China assistance.

I an waiting to see.

(16-01-2024, 09:31 AM)theold Wrote: [ -> ]Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker wrote in an article that even an eventual victory by the US and South Korea would be “meaningless” in the face of widespread wreckage

The two base this prediction on the fact that North Korea has abandoned its three-decades-old policy goal of normalizing relations with the US and has started to become vocal about using military force since early 2023.

The article goes on to point out how Kim, in order to pursue the goal that his father and grandfather failed to obtain, “poured his prestige” into the first-ever summit between North Korea and the US, only to be rudely snubbed by his American counterparts.

According to the two experts, North Korea has a sizable large nuclear arsenal with “potentially 50 or 60 warheads deliverable on missiles that can reach all of South Korea, virtually all of Japan, and Guam.”

If military action were to occur, the scholars wrote, “even an eventual US-ROK victory in the ensuing war will be empty. The wreckage, boundless and bare, will stretch as far as the eye can see.”

https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_...24524.html

No, in fact quite the opposite. These scholars quoted either have no idea what they are on about or are purposely spewing propaganda.

From a North Korean messaging perspective, if they really wanted to start a war with South Korea, it would make much more sense to do so under the auspices of reunifying Korea. After all, the Korean civil war is officially still ongoing and from a narrative POV either party is entitled to continue.

Instead, North Korea is now officially giving up re-unification, disabling its unification related government organs and labelling South Korea as an enemy country on equal grounds. If North starts a war with South now, they would be labelling themselves an aggressor who is invading another country.

It's pure idiocy to think North Korea will abandon a much more favourable position it had and purposely position itself as an aggressor and invader.

My take is North Korea is currently doing a major recalibration of its foreign policy by narrowing its hostility targets from US, EU, JP and SK to just SK. This is likely a result of their assessment that over the medium to longer term, US influence in the region will likely recede even further and no longer post any threat to the regime's survival.

Under such an assumption, it would make sense for North Korea to seek better relations with other countries like US, Japan and EU in preparation for its eventual economic liberalization and engagement with the rest of the world.

South Korea makes a good bogeyman - animosity with the South helps keep North's internal solidary while the risk of an actual war remains low as the South does not have the means or willingness to initiate conflict with the North.