17-06-2024, 10:16 AM
Main reason is they are featful of the strong USD that can pressure the Yuan down should they cut rates. A sharp fall of Yuan can lead to a capital flight triggering a financial crisis.
The only path out for China to ease its economic woes is to have US FED cut rates.
The high local govt debt, weak domestic consumption leaves only one component- exports. However the flood of exports will cause other countries to increase tariffs to prevent their own industries from being overwhelmed by Chunese exports.
In the end the inly solution comes from the US Fed. That gives China option for monetary easing.
Fed cits are coming ...the only unknown is the timing.
Just like Asian crisis we were all held hostage until Grenspan cutvrate 3 times.
The only path out for China to ease its economic woes is to have US FED cut rates.
The high local govt debt, weak domestic consumption leaves only one component- exports. However the flood of exports will cause other countries to increase tariffs to prevent their own industries from being overwhelmed by Chunese exports.
In the end the inly solution comes from the US Fed. That gives China option for monetary easing.
Fed cits are coming ...the only unknown is the timing.
Just like Asian crisis we were all held hostage until Grenspan cutvrate 3 times.