SG Talk

worries return.

it may get worse. main driver is 10yr yield...1,75%

imagine if it cross 2%. This start to drive housing loan to 2+% .
if it crosses 3% i guaranteed we have a recession as debt ridden companies collapse.

the risk is contained for now all be see is some selling on stock market ...which should taper off so long as so long as economic recovery remains intact.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/24/us-bonds...eting.html

The index futures will not be able to sustain such a sharp move down as treasuries is stable.

Will rebound soon.....

Wanf to rebound, can...very much deoends on china whether they want to continue selling their tons of US treasuries or not ...

Actually both economies r intertwined ...both n the entire world will die if they come to end game blows.

(25-01-2022, 01:47 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]The index futures will not be able to sustain such a sharp move down as treasuries is stable.

Will rebound soon.....

U mean stock index rebound or treasury index rebound up lol

(25-01-2022, 02:47 PM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]U mean stock index rebound or treasury index rebound up lol

 
Stock index will rebound.
The treasure market don't  have so many back and forth move.
It is a much better reference for many things.

Treasury markets compose of professionals and for now tells us ...that rate expectation change from Oct until now is only 25%.

Yet the stock market convulsed ....and throw this tantrum.

I see opportunities soon.

Dow already rebounded upon closure, what are you talking?

China owns only about 3.68% of the US Treasuries. 

[China has steadily accumulated U.S. Treasury securities over the last few decades. As of October 2021, the Asian nation owns $1.065 trillion, or about 3.68%, of the $28.9 trillion U.S. national debt, which is more than any other foreign country except Japan.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/in...ate%20jobs.&text=China%20chooses%20U.S.%20Treasuries%20to,of%20their%20safety%20and%20stability.]

Don't think China can afford to sell too much of its US Treasury holdings because they will need to keep CNY to USD low so that they can sell their products cheaper than other countries in the US.  Lowering the interest rate is one of the ways to keep CNY low against the greenbacks.  We expect CNY  to "devalue" and capital outflows from China to other countries to happen soon.

The market is already seeing money outflow from China. Those who saw an opportunity to make a quick buck in Chinese properties before are now parking their money elsewhere in India, SEA and other countries. They are buying up the high yield bonds too.



https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s...side-china+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=sg

(25-01-2022, 02:48 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ] 
Stock index will rebound.
The treasure market don't  have so many back and forth move.
It is a much better reference for many things.

Treasury markets compose of professionals and for now tells us ...that rate expectation change from Oct until now is only 25%.

Yet the stock market convulsed ....and throw this tantrum.

I see opportunities soon.

See Hsi movement after 3 tells us US coming down big again tonight bro

(25-01-2022, 02:48 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ] 
Stock index will rebound.
The treasure market don't  have so many back and forth move.
It is a much better reference for many things.

Treasury markets compose of professionals and for now tells us ...that rate expectation change from Oct until now is only 25%.

Yet the stock market convulsed ....and throw this tantrum.

I see opportunities soon.

Market rebounding, yr soon is very quick hor

Dead cat bounce. Paul Volcker time was steadfast in fighting inflation by rate hikes over 15% after that US economy went on upwards trajectory non stop until ......

(25-01-2022, 02:56 PM)lvlrsSTI Wrote: [ -> ]Dow already rebounded upon closure, what are you talking?

That was yesterday we are talking today.

(25-01-2022, 04:19 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]That was yesterday we are talking today.

Sg Buffett is trying to say now US -370, will rebound up tonight. Let’s see

(25-01-2022, 04:29 PM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]Sg Buffett is trying to say now US -370, will rebound up tonight. Let’s see

now -140pts and rising

DOW to crash tonight

1,000 pts

(25-01-2022, 05:33 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]now -140pts and rising

The rebound is temporary, will be choppy in the next few weeks.

Dow even if rebound tonight unlikely to be sustainable. Merely a dead cat bounce. Latest figures inicate that US economy already heading into a recession.  If the FED is to raise rates now it will be raising rates into a recession which is against normal circumstances when rates are raised in a strong economy.  However, the FED needs to do something to fight persistent high inflation.  It has now boxed itself into a corner!

(25-01-2022, 05:51 PM)moneyspinner Wrote: [ -> ]Dow even if rebound tonight unlikely to be sustainable. Merely a dead cat bounce. Latest figures US economy already heading into a recession.  If the FED is to raise rates it will be raising rates into a recession which is against normal circumstances when rates are raised in a strong economy.  However, the FED needs to do something to fight persistent high inflation.  It has now boxed itself into a corner!

recession is improbable as the tail wind of getting out of pandemic is just too strong....the yield curve is very healthy.

(25-01-2022, 05:33 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]now -140pts and rising

The dive down was deep now. Yesterday miracle happen. Never see before miracle happen 2 straight days.

(25-01-2022, 10:50 PM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]The dive down was deep

Shortists are very active these two days.

(25-01-2022, 03:13 PM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]See Hsi movement after 3 tells us US coming down big again tonight bro

Dow will rebound take selloff as chance to buy from panic investors

(25-01-2022, 10:53 PM)lvlrsSTI Wrote: [ -> ]Shortists are very active these two days.

They will be overrun by buyers.

No rebound ; still down 66 points.....but maybe Sgx will bounds today !!Can go Batam and Bintan islands tour soon only "chilli crab company" down lah...

(26-01-2022, 04:45 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Dow will rebound take selloff as chance to buy from panic investors

Dow n Nasdaq still have sell down. Today’s Fed will dent the sentiment.

(26-01-2022, 04:46 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]They will be overrun by buyers.

Overrun by sellers, but I see a buy very soon wor

(27-01-2022, 09:46 AM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]Overrun by sellers, but I see a buy very soon wor

Uncle Dow is plunging now. Flipping down is no joke.

Fed still don’t raise rate is foolish.

I am actually quite surprise 33800 strong support broke so easy  that day. I believe 33800 support can’t hold.
Get ready for next support 31400pt…

(27-01-2022, 09:46 AM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]Overrun by sellers, but I see a buy very soon wor

Tonight is clear a buy.

(27-01-2022, 10:58 PM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]Tonight is clear a buy.

If buy now how high it can up ?!!! After few rounds full force printing + 0% interest rate still can’t break 38000 … if without printing + interest rate hike you think can break 38000 ?!!