SG Talk

There was an expert who predicted Russia would collapse by July 2022

He openly published this article in Reuters where he predicted Russia's fall and collapse by 2022 July

He predicted

Inflation of 75%
Ruble at 400 to 1 USD
Contraction of Russia's Economy by 15% in Year 1 and 7% in Year 2
This was endorsed by 10,000 people on Social Media who cheered the fall of Russia

On 16–4–2023, the Same Reuters published that

Deflation of 3%
Ruble stable at 90 to 1 USD, Pre 2022 level
Expansion of Russia's Economy by 1.9% over two years against a contraction of 22%
Where is the Expert today?

HAS HE APOLOGIZED?

HAS HE SAID “I AM SORRY. I MADE A MISTAKE"

No

He simply won't take responsibility for his statements

So that means any Expert who makes such statements don't stand by them if the statements are wrong

Take this Numbskull , Gordon Chang

Not once has he explained why the Chinese economy didn't collapse like he predicted

Instead he keeps minting money from propaganda and knows he never has stand by his statement

So I only believe experts when they claim that if they make a mistake, they will apologize for their statements to the people and never publish any expert opinions again

I don't think I have seen any such expert prepared to take such an accountability

So I rate these experts as equivalent to our Indian Quota based degree holders with zero real knowledge or substance.

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam, Lawyer.
Quora.

(06-07-2023, 03:07 PM)Everything Everywhere Wrote: [ -> ]There was an expert who predicted Russia would collapse by July 2022

He openly published this article in Reuters where he predicted Russia's fall and collapse by 2022 July

He predicted

Inflation of 75%
Ruble at 400 to 1 USD
Contraction of Russia's Economy by 15% in Year 1 and 7% in Year 2
This was endorsed by 10,000 people on Social Media who cheered the fall of Russia

On 16–4–2023, the Same Reuters published that

Deflation of 3%
Ruble stable at 90 to 1 USD, Pre 2022 level
Expansion of Russia's Economy by 1.9% over two years against a contraction of 22%
Where is the Expert today?

HAS HE APOLOGIZED?

HAS HE SAID “I AM SORRY. I MADE A MISTAKE"

No

He simply won't take responsibility for his statements

So that means any Expert who makes such statements don't stand by them if the statements are wrong

Take this Numbskull , Gordon Chang

Not once has he explained why the Chinese economy didn't collapse like he predicted

Instead he keeps minting money from propaganda and knows he never has stand by his statement

So I only believe experts when they claim that if they make a mistake, they will apologize for their statements to the people and never publish any expert opinions again

I don't think I have seen any such expert prepared to take such an accountability

So I rate these experts as equivalent to our Indian Quota based degree holders with zero real knowledge or substance.

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam, Lawyer.
Quora.

There is a well-established industry practice regarding being a professional “expert” who appears in various media outlets, that is the expert himself never commends anything on failed predictions and the media never questions what happened to the past failed predictions.
 
The idea is very simple, an expert being held accountable for erroneous predictions damages both the credibility and finances of both the interviewer / publisher and the expert himself. If the expert admits to incompetency, he no longer gets future media exposure. If the media exposes the expert, nobody dares to go on their platform anymore and they lose out viewership.
 
This best practice isn’t limited to just political or market analysts, it’s the same for other subject areas such as technology, marketing, fashion etc.

Many experts also claim China banking will collapse ..... wonder who collapse first

In the past few decades, many experts have claimed that China would collapse! 

------------------------------

Sgbutt also made repeated claims!

2016 :

https://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bas...ney-2016-2

KYLE BASS: China is already out of money

Julia La Roche Feb 11, 2016, 12:22 AM GMT+8


-------------------------------

Kokee made many such claims also!

2016 :

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Battle-...rge-Soros2

Soros suddenly changed his stance toward China, painting a gloomy picture of the country's economy and effectively throwing down the gauntlet against Xi.

-----------------

2001 :

Gordon G. Chang, The Coming Collapse of China 

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Waiting since 30 years ago....

(06-07-2023, 03:37 PM)cityhantam Wrote: [ -> ]In the past few decades, many experts have claimed that China would collapse! 

------------------------------

Sgbutt also made repeated claims!

2016 :

https://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bas...ney-2016-2

KYLE BASS: China is already out of money

Julia La Roche Feb 11, 2016, 12:22 AM GMT+8


-------------------------------

Kokee made many such claims also!

2016 :

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Battle-...rge-Soros2

Soros suddenly changed his stance toward China, painting a gloomy picture of the country's economy and effectively throwing down the gauntlet against Xi.

-----------------

2001 :

Gordon G. Chang, The Coming Collapse of China 

.
.

Aiya, don't mentioned about the hanjian banana SgFett lah.   


He is a useless yellow skin but always thought he is white.   


He is hanjian banana. 


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think it is happening atypical recovery.

it was closed.
so upon opening up there is a rush from pend up demand.
but basic of things do not change over night becuase it is open.
orders are smaller and few from europe and america. partly high energy cost then, inflation, partly war.
so things go back to basic. people become more conservative on spending in a recession. especially bigger items.
search for same function lower cost one. example min skit, lipstick etc cheap and good to project image.
merchant will take some time to adjust.

houses are not selling, cuase after the crash people is afraid, buy now will it become cheaper tomorrow. but after some time, those who need will still need to buy. then good cycle will start.

housing market is major economy generation, a house needs lots of material and man power during building, then need people during sale, finance and law. then need to reno house, then need to fill up the house with brown/white goods etc.

so housing not moving related will not move. it is slowly recovering.

now china government try use ev car. ev car needed at home and also overseas. so got some market.
car also has many related industry. but much smaller then house.

sure has past lowest point. recovery will take time.

people go africa, india, pakistan, east europe in search of business.

china goods fill up the space in russia that europe and america company has left. heard chinese car is selling well there.