Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating (/Thread-Cost-of-decoupling-from-China-for-German-economy-severe-but-not-devastating)

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Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - LittleBirdStreet - 05-02-2024

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/cost-of-decoupling-from-china-for-german-economy-severe-but-not-devastating/

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - Migrant - 05-02-2024

Already dying still act tough.

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - RiseofAsia - 05-02-2024

Weak PM.
Too many HJs already.
Good German companies already shifted to China.

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - RiseofAsia - 05-02-2024

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/19/1220079239/germany-china-business-derisking

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - revealer - 05-02-2024

So decoupling hurts only Germany?

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - teaserteam - 05-02-2024

Germany and other EU nation are considering de-risking rather than decoupling. Here will be the damage of decoupling for Germany

Quote:Large German Firms are Particularly Involved and Political Economy Risks Exist
Around 5,000 German companies conduct business in China. According to the German Economic Institute, 2.7 percent of Germany’s total economic value-added and 2.4 percent of total employment depend on exports to China. China is Germany’s largest trading partner for trade in goods (9.5 percent of Germany’s trade in goods), but EU neighboring countries are much more important (e.g., the four Visegrád countries in 2021 accounted for almost 40 percent more in trade).

https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/china-de-risking

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - LittleBirdStreet - 05-02-2024

(05-02-2024, 08:01 PM)Migrant Wrote:  Already dying still act tough.

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - LittleBirdStreet - 05-02-2024

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - revealer - 06-02-2024

Germany's pressure to derisk comes from within the EU communities and the US where Germany has the most combined trade.

https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/germany-needs-take-eus-de-risking-china-more-seriously

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - sgbuffett - 06-02-2024

Over time it is best for China to decouple from the world and the world to decouple from China. Here is why.

China has its BRICS group

China and west has distinct forms of govt and philosophy. Integrating into a single world economy creates many problems.. they will use trade and investments to apply pressure on each other creating a constant tension and dissatisfaction. Also, they compete on different playing fields given in the west the workers can overthrow the govt by elections to meet their demands and constantly drive up wages and benefits. They don't want to be competing against workers jn a authoritarian state.

It also make no sense for each side to benefit the other economically because they use the money to build military with intent to compete geopolically.

Should an event like Taiwan invasion take place we don't want sudden disruption to the world economy.

Over time if China does well without depending on the west, its proven superior form of govt will spread to others and win others over.

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - revealer - 06-02-2024

Germany depended much on China and its GDP is -0.3% whereas the EU is +0.5% in 2023. Germany's GDP was much better before. Looks like Germany's derisking is imminent if China's economy continues to slow down.

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - sgbuffett - 06-02-2024

(06-02-2024, 08:46 AM)revealer Wrote:  Germany depended much on China and its GDP is -0.3% whereas the EU is +0.5%  in 2023.  Germany's GDP was much better before.  Looks like Germany's derisking is imminent if China's economy continues to slow down.

It's best for a country's economy not to be too linked to China as China economy weakens.

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - RiseofAsia - 06-02-2024

(06-02-2024, 08:53 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  It's best for a country's economy not to be too linked to China as China economy weakens.

China market is a political market.(政策市）
You can’t use your AngMoh financial concept to apply on China market.
Do you know why it has done so badly recently?
Financial is still not China strength.
Financial HJs are at work.

There are only 200millions share investors.

中国最后一个战役，一定是金融战。

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - revealer - 06-02-2024

Commonly known tt China’s economy was greatly affected by the collapse of the property market after Government tried to tame the property bubble 3 years ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/10-charts-that-show-how-china-s-property-crisis-is-spreading-across-economy

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RE: Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating - maxsanic - 06-02-2024

(05-02-2024, 07:17 PM)LittleBirdStreet Wrote:  https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/cost-of-decoupling-from-china-for-german-economy-severe-but-not-devastating/

The German economy is, as things stand now, already close to "severe" even without decoupling, so this study is a moot point to start with.

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