Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited 1yr.. plan to buy at absolute low -
sgbuffett - 20-08-2021
Hang Seng Tech index was created on 27 July 2020. Since the day it was created I have waited patiently to buy. I feel today is the day ...and the moment to make my decision after waiting almost 400days. I will pick the minute and second to buy as best I can today to buy at the lowest point..
Govt trying to suppress technology companies from becoming too big....opportunity or crisis?..it is causing fear and concentrated selling pressure. Here is where I see opportunity for a bottom.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
Zannn - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 10:20 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: Govt trying to suppress technology companies from becoming too big.
![[Image: D7KhLsR.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/D7KhLsR.jpg)
Strategy now shd be looking for B lister who has potential. Govt is clearly stopping A lister from growing. So bro buff yr A lister HK shares while valuation is cheap, will not have the appreciation of B lister. Maybe u shd look for b lister n rotate out
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
sgbuffett - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 10:40 AM)Zannn Wrote: Strategy now shd be looking for B lister who has potential. Govt is clearly stopping A lister from growing. So bro buff yr A lister HK shares while valuation is cheap, will not have the appreciation of B lister. Maybe u shd look for b lister n rotate out
I actually read through the rules like no aggressive promotional coupons etc.
In fact it helps the incumbent lock up their market share rather than encourage competition.
If you are new player would you enter a market that govt regulation is heavy and will limit your growth.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
Zannn - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 11:01 AM)Zannn Wrote: Agressive promo only big players can do. If they are stopped from doing, give smaller players better chance of entry?
Think there are many other rules such as cannot monopolies just using co. own payment system/ yr own logistic/ own afflitistea etc. this will give the smaller players a chance to be a payment choice/ logistic/ delivery etc of these big platform who has the giant market share. Don’t u think this will likely benefit B lister who now will have a chance to deliver/ payment for Taobao etc.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
Zannn - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 10:49 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: I actually read through the rules like no aggressive promotional coupons etc.
In fact it helps the incumbent lock up their market share rather than encourage competition.
If you are new player would you enter a market that govt regulation is heavy and will limit your growth.
Think the whole point here is, u r too big, u have reach yr max and will not let u grow anymore. It’s time to let smaller ones share the pie. So u think big players or smaller players benefit this round?
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
sgbuffett - 20-08-2021
I purchased the ETF today at $0.989...yes it is risky and may sink further but price is good I will bid take the opportunity after waiting more than a year for the right price.
People always say don't catch falling knives ....this is an advice I have never been able to follow .
It is still sinking so don't try to follow what I do.
.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
Blasterlord2 - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 11:42 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: I purchased the ETF today at $0.989...yes it is risky and Amy sink further but price is good I will bid my time.
People always say don't catch falling knives ....this is an advice I have never been able to follow .
It is still sinking so don't try to follow what I do.
.
![[Image: qNyUaLK.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/qNyUaLK.jpg)
![[Image: YVHcrUU.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/YVHcrUU.jpg)
Why u seem to have infinite bullets?
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
sgbuffett - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 11:45 AM)Blasterlord2 Wrote: Why u seem to have infinite bullets?
Recently I had to sell of semb marine and Nano.
Also incoming dividends means I always have cash to place
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
Alice Alicia - 20-08-2021
Like catching a falling knife.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
sgbuffett - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 12:04 PM)Alice Alicia Wrote: Like catching a falling knife.
In a sense...but one cannot time the bottom anyway.
Once it is good enough pricing I will take.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
abc123 - 20-08-2021
https://www.sgmoneymatters.com/china-tech-crackdown-stock-crash/
The market price is always right, there is no such thing as undervalue
If you read my article in December 2020, I said Chinese tech stocks “are undervalued for a reason.” – because “they operate under different market conditions”.
I may offend a lot of people by saying this, but I think if you believe you can buy so-called “undervalued” stocks, you are assuming most other investors are dumber than you. And that is not a good start.
The stock price reflects what is happening to the company most of the time and we need to respect that. It may deviate from reality over a short time frame but it often corrects itself.
The massive China tech sell down is not just about Alibaba and Tencent. The bloodshed from the regulatory crackdown is everywhere. The ETFs that track Chinese technology companies such as Hang Seng Tech ETF and KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) have lost 40% to 50% from just 5 months ago respectively. And this happened against the backdrop of the Nasdaq (the US tech index) as it reached a new high every month.
Performance of US tech stocks and China tech stocks are heaven and earth
Overall, the average Chinese tech stock price is 60% lower than its US counterparts! So unless there is a significant change in the fundamentals, the downtrend might not be over any time soon.
You need to be aware that the same people who called Chinese tech stocks “undervalued” have continued to call them undervalued for a very long time and every purchase they made has been losing money.
Many stocks may eventually recover given a long enough period. But this is not because the stock was undervalued, it is just because the economic cycles rotate. And since it takes a long time, you need to ask yourself, “How long am I willing to wait?”
You may think you just need to wait for a few months or even a year, but the reality can be more painful than that.
You can’t invest in China stocks by listening to CNBC
To me, this is the most important concept for you to understand when we analyze what is happening in China. Specifically, it is not easy for an English-speaking investor to invest in Chinese stocks when your only sources of information are from CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and the ‘talking heads’ on various blogs. Most of the writers do not even speak or read Chinese. Sure, you can google translate an announcement from the Chinese government or a Chinese company, but you probably won’t have a clue what it actually implies. It’s a question of trying to make sense of the information so that you can make an informed decision.
This reminds me of how I felt in 2015 when I met a fund manager who specialized in investing in Africa. How the western world understands China’s financial markets is like how wrong we understood Africa back then.
This can all be very confusing because, a great many Western (including Singapore) investors believe they are quite familiar with Alibaba and Tencent and these companies do look like solid ones to invest in, especially if you compare them with their US counterparts which are Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc.
And you may be even more convinced if you know China’s tech firms have more advanced technology than their US counterparts such as in the areas of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data analysis.
So when these stocks are at a 50% discount, it looks like a “crazy buy” opportunity from a value investing point of view. I saw some people in the forum share their trade screenshot like a badge of honour as they were proud to be “buying when others were fearful”.
The problem is that they are looking at China stocks through the lens of a capitalist. However, let’s be clear about this, China is not a capitalist country.
Here is a good example. On 29 June 2021, just before the IPO for Didi Chuxing (the largest Chinese ride-hailing giant) listed in the New York Stock Exchange, the famous Jim Cramer went public and told everyone that they should “Get as many shares as you can”. Unfortunately, by following his advice, many Americans (including our dear Temasek holdings) lost half of their investments in less than 30 days.
But if you understand the backdrop of Didi’s listing, you may not want to touch Didi at all at that time. Do you know on its biggest day of listing as an IPO, Didi’s executives kept low profiles, declining to ring the opening bell or even celebrate the event on Didi’s Weibo social media channel?
Why? I will explain later.
Buy and hold doesn’t give you a free pass to make money
For those who are vested, it is natural thinking to average down. They think this way because they suffer from anchoring bias.
Additional Reading: How Anchoring Bias Leads You to Bad Investment Decisions
Very often, you are told to buy good companies and hold them for the long term. The assumptions are that good companies can ride out the economic booms and dooms and eventually your share price will go up. That is why “value investors” advocate for you to buy on the dip or practice dollar-cost averaging.
They give you examples of Amazon, Google, Microsoft, etc. and how you too can benefit by not letting go of these shares. What you are not told is you are given these examples in hindsight, and that many companies failed or disappeared from the public eyes with natural death. Think about it, there are about 630,000 stocks in the world. What are the chances that you will pick the right stock to be standing strong for the next two decades?
When I started investing 15 years ago, the almighty stocks were not your familiar FAANG stocks, namely Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix; and Alphabet (formerly known as Google). They were the energy giants such as Esso and Shell. And look what happened to them in the past decade. They have become the forgotten names.
So why do you think the same technology stocks that people are worshipping today can continue growing forever? Currently, the average tenure of S&P 500 companies is 15-20 years. Do you realize that there is a high chance that you will outlive your stock holdings?
Source:
https://www.innosight.com/insight/creative-destruction/
The other aspect you need to be very careful about is “averaging down” (buy more stock when its price gets lower) because it assumes you have unlimited capital. If you keep on buying stocks when the share prices go down, at some point in time, you will run out of your investment capital or you will be overexposed to a certain stock. The logic of the practice will work against you.
A good example is New Oriental Education which you may not be familiar with, but it is known to everyone in China. New Oriental was an aspiring story (just like other stories such as Haidilao and Nongfu Spring). The company was founded in 1993 by Yu Minhong, an English teacher at Peking University. He initially focused on the TOEFL and GREs but then expanded the company to provide services for various other exams and fields as well. The school is now one of the largest companies in China.
The company was listed in the New York exchange in 2006 and never had a negative year for the past 15 years and the revenue and earnings have always been going up year after year.
New Oriental’s revenue and earnings have been growing year on year. Source: Bloomberg
And guess what, 15 years of performance was wiped out in 3 months when the Chinese regulator decided that “education should be non-profitable” and the regulator cracked down on the after-school tuition industry. It may be unfathomable from a capitalists point of view, but that is the harsh reality of investing in a non-capitalist country while money is not everything.
15 years chart of New Oriental Education. Source: Tradingview.com
China is not cracking down on tech giants but rather on foreign capital
When I looked back at my earlier article about investing in China stocks and Hang Seng Tech, I have mixed feelings. I think China’s investment climate is heading to a structural change. To understand this, we need to understand the history of China’s financial market.
China started on the path of economic reform and began opening its markets (改革开放) in the 1980s. The first modern stock in China was 小飞乐(600651), which was only listed on 14 Nov 1986. Amazingly, the stock still exists today, though it is not doing very well.
China’s first stock
China’s stock markets, the Shanghai stock exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen stock exchange (SZSE) were only established in 1990. Compared to the US, the history in China’s capital market has been very short.
What is little known to the outside world is that the Chinese people haven’t benefitted too much from the activities in their stock markets. The real beneficiaries are the foreign financial institutions who made a fortune due to the boom and doom that took place in these stock markets.
It is a big topic and I will try to write more in the future. But you can refer back to my recent article if you would like to know more about how the US influences other countries through the financial system.
The point here is that China knew very well what was happening, but it was a win-win situation. China needed the capital and the US needed the labour.
If you understand how the Asian Financial Crisis happened in the 1990s, that is why China had currency controls and tight oversight in the financial market.
About 10 years ago, China decided to open their capital market against the backdrop of globalization. They have done a lot to give foreign investors more access to their market. But since Trump was elected in 2016, the atmosphere has totally changed.
The resulting US-China tension and Covid-pandemic have eventually led to a de-globalized world and China has decided to move to “dual circulation”. This is a strategy to reorient China’s economy by prioritizing domestic consumption (“internal circulation”) while remaining open to international trade and investment (“external circulation”). Fancy words! But to me, it is increasingly clear that “dual circulation” means decoupling from the world.
So why does this matter?
Just now I mentioned Didi listed their IPO in an extremely discreet manner. And they obviously knew that this IPO was not going to end well. But why did they still insist on doing so? My wildest guess is that a company has to serve the shareholders and the biggest shareholder is Masayoshi Son’s Softbank Group as well as many other venture capitalists. They needed to cash out!
The shareholder structure of the China tech companies may surprise you:
The biggest shareholder of Alibaba is Softbank (a Japanese multinational conglomerate)
The biggest shareholder of Tencent is Naspers (a global Internet group and technology investor)
The biggest shareholder of JD.com is Walmart (an American multinational retail corporation)
So while it may appear that China is severely regulating their own companies, the real people who are hurting are the foreign capitalists.
Yes, China investors may suffer too. But the foreign institutional investors are definitely suffering more pain. And the ones who are caught in the crossfire are retail investors like you and me who often buy China stocks from the Hong Kong and US markets.
Investors are the despotic landlord.
In Feb this year, China’s President Xi praised the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to successfully help the poor peasants. He mentioned the revolutionary activities of “打土豪,分田地”, which means “attacking the despotic landowners and distributing their land to the poor”.
If you think about it, in the past, the biggest resource for an agricultural country was land which was controlled by the rich landlords, who enjoyed a lavish lifestyle by paying peanuts to the peasants for their hard work.
To a certain extent, in today’s world, the internet giants exist in the same form and they are exploiting the merchants and consumers in the same way.
Admit it or not, when you choose to invest in such a company, you choose to be the despicable capitalist who only wants the company to maximize profit so the share prices go higher. A listed stock is not a charity, when you make a lot of money, someone has to foot the bill. So when China decided that Meituan should have a minimum wage, Meituan (3690 HK) declined more than 27% on the same day and 17% on the next day. It is a policy that is against you as the capitalist.
In the western world, capitalists are worshipped. Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are models of successful people that investors or entrepreneurs aspire to become one day. But does the Chinese look at them the same way? Maybe not.
Let me summarize…
Are Alibaba, Tencent and other Hang Seng Techs good solid companies? Yes, from a capitalist’s point of view. But the environment has changed. Let’s be honest, if we agree that the Chinese regulator is serious about the new anti-trust laws, then these companies’ “monster growth” period is over.
I don’t want to get into a debate of social ideology here, but China is taking the tough decision to sacrifice the capital market to reform the industries, and it is their choice. You and I as an investor, need to keep a clear head.
The way I look at it, it appears that China is moving towards anti-capitalism. And the crackdown is not going away any time soon. Even China is still placing a high priority on innovation, in the short term, the government appears to be more focused on equalizing the distribution of wealth and opportunities as it moves to address negative demographic trends.
From a money flow point of view, if you are a global equity manager, would you go against the trend and buy the dip? Or would you adopt a wait and see attitude?
If you have a strong heart and are “greedy when others are fearful”, you may be handsomely rewarded. Or, you may suffer dearly. Time will tell. But I believe that if you keep on swimming against the current, you may eventually lose your entire capital one day.
That is why I chose my investment strategy, namely, to follow the trend. It is not a new idea but it has helped me survive for years and probably decades to come.
I am not saying the China tech share prices won’t go back up. But you may need to be really patient. Definitely, you will need to ask yourself, “How long am I willing to wait?”
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
sgbuffett - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 12:46 PM)abc123 Wrote: https://www.sgmoneymatters.com/china-tech-crackdown-stock-crash/
The market price is always right, there is no such thing as undervalue
If you read my article in December 2020, I said Chinese tech stocks “are undervalued for a reason.” – because “they operate under different market conditions”.
I may offend a lot of people by saying this, but I think if you believe you can buy so-called “undervalued” stocks, you are assuming most other investors are dumber than you. And that is not a good start.
The stock price reflects what is happening to the company most of the time and we need to respect that. It may deviate from reality over a short time frame but it often corrects itself.
The massive China tech sell down is not just about Alibaba and Tencent. The bloodshed from the regulatory crackdown is everywhere. The ETFs that track Chinese technology companies such as Hang Seng Tech ETF and KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) have lost 40% to 50% from just 5 months ago respectively. And this happened against the backdrop of the Nasdaq (the US tech index) as it reached a new high every month.
Performance of US tech stocks and China tech stocks are heaven and earth
Overall, the average Chinese tech stock price is 60% lower than its US counterparts! So unless there is a significant change in the fundamentals, the downtrend might not be over any time soon.
You need to be aware that the same people who called Chinese tech stocks “undervalued” have continued to call them undervalued for a very long time and every purchase they made has been losing money.
Many stocks may eventually recover given a long enough period. But this is not because the stock was undervalued, it is just because the economic cycles rotate. And since it takes a long time, you need to ask yourself, “How long am I willing to wait?”
You may think you just need to wait for a few months or even a year, but the reality can be more painful than that.
You can’t invest in China stocks by listening to CNBC
To me, this is the most important concept for you to understand when we analyze what is happening in China. Specifically, it is not easy for an English-speaking investor to invest in Chinese stocks when your only sources of information are from CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and the ‘talking heads’ on various blogs. Most of the writers do not even speak or read Chinese. Sure, you can google translate an announcement from the Chinese government or a Chinese company, but you probably won’t have a clue what it actually implies. It’s a question of trying to make sense of the information so that you can make an informed decision.
This reminds me of how I felt in 2015 when I met a fund manager who specialized in investing in Africa. How the western world understands China’s financial markets is like how wrong we understood Africa back then.
This can all be very confusing because, a great many Western (including Singapore) investors believe they are quite familiar with Alibaba and Tencent and these companies do look like solid ones to invest in, especially if you compare them with their US counterparts which are Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc.
And you may be even more convinced if you know China’s tech firms have more advanced technology than their US counterparts such as in the areas of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data analysis.
So when these stocks are at a 50% discount, it looks like a “crazy buy” opportunity from a value investing point of view. I saw some people in the forum share their trade screenshot like a badge of honour as they were proud to be “buying when others were fearful”.
The problem is that they are looking at China stocks through the lens of a capitalist. However, let’s be clear about this, China is not a capitalist country.
Here is a good example. On 29 June 2021, just before the IPO for Didi Chuxing (the largest Chinese ride-hailing giant) listed in the New York Stock Exchange, the famous Jim Cramer went public and told everyone that they should “Get as many shares as you can”. Unfortunately, by following his advice, many Americans (including our dear Temasek holdings) lost half of their investments in less than 30 days.
But if you understand the backdrop of Didi’s listing, you may not want to touch Didi at all at that time. Do you know on its biggest day of listing as an IPO, Didi’s executives kept low profiles, declining to ring the opening bell or even celebrate the event on Didi’s Weibo social media channel?
Why? I will explain later.
Buy and hold doesn’t give you a free pass to make money
For those who are vested, it is natural thinking to average down. They think this way because they suffer from anchoring bias.
Additional Reading: How Anchoring Bias Leads You to Bad Investment Decisions
Very often, you are told to buy good companies and hold them for the long term. The assumptions are that good companies can ride out the economic booms and dooms and eventually your share price will go up. That is why “value investors” advocate for you to buy on the dip or practice dollar-cost averaging.
They give you examples of Amazon, Google, Microsoft, etc. and how you too can benefit by not letting go of these shares. What you are not told is you are given these examples in hindsight, and that many companies failed or disappeared from the public eyes with natural death. Think about it, there are about 630,000 stocks in the world. What are the chances that you will pick the right stock to be standing strong for the next two decades?
When I started investing 15 years ago, the almighty stocks were not your familiar FAANG stocks, namely Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix; and Alphabet (formerly known as Google). They were the energy giants such as Esso and Shell. And look what happened to them in the past decade. They have become the forgotten names.
So why do you think the same technology stocks that people are worshipping today can continue growing forever? Currently, the average tenure of S&P 500 companies is 15-20 years. Do you realize that there is a high chance that you will outlive your stock holdings?
Source: https://www.innosight.com/insight/creative-destruction/
The other aspect you need to be very careful about is “averaging down” (buy more stock when its price gets lower) because it assumes you have unlimited capital. If you keep on buying stocks when the share prices go down, at some point in time, you will run out of your investment capital or you will be overexposed to a certain stock. The logic of the practice will work against you.
A good example is New Oriental Education which you may not be familiar with, but it is known to everyone in China. New Oriental was an aspiring story (just like other stories such as Haidilao and Nongfu Spring). The company was founded in 1993 by Yu Minhong, an English teacher at Peking University. He initially focused on the TOEFL and GREs but then expanded the company to provide services for various other exams and fields as well. The school is now one of the largest companies in China.
The company was listed in the New York exchange in 2006 and never had a negative year for the past 15 years and the revenue and earnings have always been going up year after year.
New Oriental’s revenue and earnings have been growing year on year. Source: Bloomberg
And guess what, 15 years of performance was wiped out in 3 months when the Chinese regulator decided that “education should be non-profitable” and the regulator cracked down on the after-school tuition industry. It may be unfathomable from a capitalists point of view, but that is the harsh reality of investing in a non-capitalist country while money is not everything.
15 years chart of New Oriental Education. Source: Tradingview.com
China is not cracking down on tech giants but rather on foreign capital
When I looked back at my earlier article about investing in China stocks and Hang Seng Tech, I have mixed feelings. I think China’s investment climate is heading to a structural change. To understand this, we need to understand the history of China’s financial market.
China started on the path of economic reform and began opening its markets (改革开放) in the 1980s. The first modern stock in China was 小飞乐(600651), which was only listed on 14 Nov 1986. Amazingly, the stock still exists today, though it is not doing very well.
China’s first stock
China’s stock markets, the Shanghai stock exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen stock exchange (SZSE) were only established in 1990. Compared to the US, the history in China’s capital market has been very short.
What is little known to the outside world is that the Chinese people haven’t benefitted too much from the activities in their stock markets. The real beneficiaries are the foreign financial institutions who made a fortune due to the boom and doom that took place in these stock markets.
It is a big topic and I will try to write more in the future. But you can refer back to my recent article if you would like to know more about how the US influences other countries through the financial system.
The point here is that China knew very well what was happening, but it was a win-win situation. China needed the capital and the US needed the labour.
If you understand how the Asian Financial Crisis happened in the 1990s, that is why China had currency controls and tight oversight in the financial market.
About 10 years ago, China decided to open their capital market against the backdrop of globalization. They have done a lot to give foreign investors more access to their market. But since Trump was elected in 2016, the atmosphere has totally changed.
The resulting US-China tension and Covid-pandemic have eventually led to a de-globalized world and China has decided to move to “dual circulation”. This is a strategy to reorient China’s economy by prioritizing domestic consumption (“internal circulation”) while remaining open to international trade and investment (“external circulation”). Fancy words! But to me, it is increasingly clear that “dual circulation” means decoupling from the world.
So why does this matter?
Just now I mentioned Didi listed their IPO in an extremely discreet manner. And they obviously knew that this IPO was not going to end well. But why did they still insist on doing so? My wildest guess is that a company has to serve the shareholders and the biggest shareholder is Masayoshi Son’s Softbank Group as well as many other venture capitalists. They needed to cash out!
The shareholder structure of the China tech companies may surprise you:
The biggest shareholder of Alibaba is Softbank (a Japanese multinational conglomerate)
The biggest shareholder of Tencent is Naspers (a global Internet group and technology investor)
The biggest shareholder of JD.com is Walmart (an American multinational retail corporation)
So while it may appear that China is severely regulating their own companies, the real people who are hurting are the foreign capitalists.
Yes, China investors may suffer too. But the foreign institutional investors are definitely suffering more pain. And the ones who are caught in the crossfire are retail investors like you and me who often buy China stocks from the Hong Kong and US markets.
Investors are the despotic landlord.
In Feb this year, China’s President Xi praised the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to successfully help the poor peasants. He mentioned the revolutionary activities of “打土豪,分田地”, which means “attacking the despotic landowners and distributing their land to the poor”.
If you think about it, in the past, the biggest resource for an agricultural country was land which was controlled by the rich landlords, who enjoyed a lavish lifestyle by paying peanuts to the peasants for their hard work.
To a certain extent, in today’s world, the internet giants exist in the same form and they are exploiting the merchants and consumers in the same way.
Admit it or not, when you choose to invest in such a company, you choose to be the despicable capitalist who only wants the company to maximize profit so the share prices go higher. A listed stock is not a charity, when you make a lot of money, someone has to foot the bill. So when China decided that Meituan should have a minimum wage, Meituan (3690 HK) declined more than 27% on the same day and 17% on the next day. It is a policy that is against you as the capitalist.
In the western world, capitalists are worshipped. Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are models of successful people that investors or entrepreneurs aspire to become one day. But does the Chinese look at them the same way? Maybe not.
Let me summarize…
Are Alibaba, Tencent and other Hang Seng Techs good solid companies? Yes, from a capitalist’s point of view. But the environment has changed. Let’s be honest, if we agree that the Chinese regulator is serious about the new anti-trust laws, then these companies’ “monster growth” period is over.
I don’t want to get into a debate of social ideology here, but China is taking the tough decision to sacrifice the capital market to reform the industries, and it is their choice. You and I as an investor, need to keep a clear head.
The way I look at it, it appears that China is moving towards anti-capitalism. And the crackdown is not going away any time soon. Even China is still placing a high priority on innovation, in the short term, the government appears to be more focused on equalizing the distribution of wealth and opportunities as it moves to address negative demographic trends.
From a money flow point of view, if you are a global equity manager, would you go against the trend and buy the dip? Or would you adopt a wait and see attitude?
If you have a strong heart and are “greedy when others are fearful”, you may be handsomely rewarded. Or, you may suffer dearly. Time will tell. But I believe that if you keep on swimming against the current, you may eventually lose your entire capital one day.
That is why I chose my investment strategy, namely, to follow the trend. It is not a new idea but it has helped me survive for years and probably decades to come.
I am not saying the China tech share prices won’t go back up. But you may need to be really patient. Definitely, you will need to ask yourself, “How long am I willing to wait?”
It's a long winded article ...if one believes market is ALWAYS RIGHT ...just invest at regular intervals or don't invest.
It is true that even if the market is wrong an ordinary investor may not have the skill to know...so most are better off to buy t regularly and not try to pick bottom.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
abc123 - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 12:51 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: It's a long winded article ...if one believes market is ALWAYS RIGHT ...just invest at regular intervals or don't invest.
It is true that even if the market is wrong an ordinary investor may not have the skill to know...so most are better off to buy t regularly and not try to pick bottom.
Don't be naive about Communism when it comes to investing in China
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
sgbuffett - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 11:42 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: I purchased the ETF today at $0.989...yes it is risky and may sink further but price is good I will bid take the opportunity after waiting more than a year for the right price.
People always say don't catch falling knives ....this is an advice I have never been able to follow .
It is still sinking so don't try to follow what I do.
.
![[Image: qNyUaLK.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/qNyUaLK.jpg)
Mark my buying point today.....11:35am....I press the BUY button.
I will now hold it for 20ys and 20yrs from now look back at this moment.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
starbugs - 20-08-2021
China Tech reminds me of this:
"I can feel it....drop, drop drop, drop drop...like grapes!".
"Drop, drop drop, drop drop!"
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
justdoit2 - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 01:27 PM)abc123 Wrote: Don't be naive about Communism when it comes to investing in China
China will not kill its own companies. They in fact want them to grow but THEY MUST benefit the Chinese people and China.
If the earnings are derived at the expense of the Chinese people and China, Chinese regulators will correct that. Pure capitalist only look at the business side but socialist will look not only at the business side but also from country and people perspective.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
sgbuffett - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 02:50 PM)justdoit2 Wrote: China will not kill its own companies. They in fact want them to grow but THEY MUST benefit the Chinese people and China.
If the earnings are derived at the expense of the Chinese people and China, Chinese regulators will correct that. Pure capitalist only look at the business side but socialist will look not only at the business side but also from country and people perspective.
This is a misconception.
When ever people pay ...its for service or goods delivered to them. The most profitable companies benefit the most people provided they are not dealing in illicit goods.
The govt just need to decide on what goods and services are allowed and market will do the rest.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
Zannn - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 02:05 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: Mark my buying point today.....11:35am....I press the BUY button.
I will now hold it for 20ys and 20yrs from now look back at this moment.
![[Image: hFxrhu4.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/hFxrhu4.jpg)
No need hold so long la, within a year everyone agree it will be positive but weather if there is opportunities cost.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
justdoit2 - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 02:58 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: This is a misconception.
When ever people pay ...its for service or goods delivered to them. The most profitable companies benefit the most people provided they are not dealing in illicit goods.
The govt just need to decide on what goods and services are allowed and market will do the rest.
This is a capitalist way of thinking where the market decides everything. In a socialist economy, the market is not everything, there must be a balanced between market forces and the social impact it has on society.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
Gemstar - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 02:50 PM)justdoit2 Wrote: China will not kill its own companies. They in fact want them to grow but THEY MUST benefit the Chinese people and China.
If the earnings are derived at the expense of the Chinese people and China, Chinese regulators will correct that. Pure capitalist only look at the business side but socialist will look not only at the business side but also from country and people perspective.
China Govt are very protective towards their people in terms of stock investments. I like this kind of mentality and not every country regulators hv this qualities of mindset.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
Ernesto - 20-08-2021
Sell down coming soon!
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
Sharexchange - 20-08-2021
Next week i will buy some 3032HK. Already made one round this month.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
Zannn - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 05:10 PM)Ernesto Wrote: Sell down coming soon!
U mean currently is not selling down yet?
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
Ernesto - 20-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 07:28 PM)Zannn Wrote: U mean currently is not selling down yet?
To me is no lor.....
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
pervertosan - 21-08-2021
if dont want to buy tech…but want high growth…consider Beigene 6160.hk
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows as China release regulations -
justdoit2 - 22-08-2021
(20-08-2021, 05:07 PM)Gemstar Wrote: China Govt are very protective towards their people in terms of stock investments. I like this kind of mentality and not every country regulators hv this qualities of mindset.
That is difference between pure capitalist and socialist.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
sgbuffett - 22-08-2021
Good panel discussion by Fifth Person ....all the pros and cons ...risks and investment options all discussed by these top experts.
..but they are also scared.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
sgbuffett - 22-08-2021
The measures hit Nasdaq & HK listed tech stocks only. Those listed on Shenzhen are unaffected.
My take is those on the HK bourse will recover faster while the cloud will hang over Nasdaq listed stocks.
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
Zannn - 23-08-2021
(22-08-2021, 10:34 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: Good panel discussion by Fifth Person ....all the pros and cons ...risks and investment options all discussed by these top experts.
..but they are also scared.
Expert? Never heard them before le, who are these people
RE: Hang Seng Tech Index hits new lows today I waited more than 1yr for chance to buy.... -
sgbuffett - 23-08-2021
(23-08-2021, 07:56 AM)Zannn Wrote: Expert? Never heard them before le, who are these people
They are fifth voice passionate investors .who have been through thick and thin. Although they sound shallow....they are quite smart.