Realistic look at S&P500... - Printable Version
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Realistic look at S&P500... - sgbuffett - 26-09-2022
![[Image: WF9lhzW.png]](https://i.imgur.com/WF9lhzW.png)
1. So far it has only undo the bubble caused by FED pump. Fed unpump only midway. QT only started in earnest this month.
2. Based on this we should get to 3200.
3. But if there is both an earnings recession and recession we should see the S&P500 fall below 3000 to 2500.
4. The 3rd point is not a given because Fed can just stop and slow hikes once it sees recession coming and inflation subsiding.
5. However without (3) happening I will not step up buying as a long term investor as the future returns will remain low and valuations unattractive.
Just some of my thoughts and planning process.
I diary my thinking so I don't panic or get itchy and buy. Many movements are just short term. 5% here, 6% there. But in a larger perspective and longer term much of these won't matter.
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - p1acebo - 26-09-2022
Nice titties
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - RiseofAsia - 26-09-2022
Already said Dow handle completed.
Dont believe, obegood!
The down trend has opened up to 20k channel.
I see liao also scare!
I am very scare of flippling down. If Uncle Dow cant hold at 29600pts.
The flippling down is caused by Triggering of Russia retaliation?
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - Zannn - 26-09-2022
(26-09-2022, 08:10 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:
1. So far it has only undo the bubble caused by FED pump. Fed unpump only midway. QT only started in earnest this month.
2. Based on this we should get to 3200.
3. But if there is both an earnings recession and recession we should see the S&P500 fall below 3000 to 2500.
4. The 3rd point is not a given because Fed can just stop and slow hikes once it sees recession coming and inflation subsiding.
5. However without (3) happening I will not step up buying as a long term investor as the future returns will remain low and valuations unattractive.
Just some of my thoughts and planning process.
I diary my thinking so I don't panic or get itchy and buy. Many movements are just short term. 5% here, 6% there. But in a larger perspective and longer term much of these won't matter.
US side is quite firm it’s falling, u may not need to focus so much. Strangely yr focus seem to be on market u r not vested, ignore the HK market losses u put $ in? U must really consider cut n get out of HK before no bones left
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - winbig - 26-09-2022
(26-09-2022, 08:21 AM)Zannn Wrote: US side is quite firm it’s falling, u may not need to focus so much. Strangely yr focus seem to be on market u r not vested, ignore the HK market losses u put $ in? U must really consider cut n get out of HK before no bones left
HK and it's market will always be there. I don't think it'll be no bones left......
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - Sentinel - 26-09-2022
(26-09-2022, 08:25 AM)winbig Wrote: HK and it's market will always be there. I don't think it'll be no bones left......
When people say no bones left, they dun mean floored to zero, moron
Use you brain a bit and always remember this, you and SgBluffett are SgTalk's ultimate reverse indicators hor!
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - forum456 - 26-09-2022
(26-09-2022, 08:10 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: 1. So far it has only undo the bubble caused by FED pump. Fed unpump only midway. QT only started in earnest this month.
2. Based on this we should get to 3200.
3. But if there is both an earnings recession and recession we should see the S&P500 fall below 3000 to 2500.
4. The 3rd point is not a given because Fed can just stop and slow hikes once it sees recession coming and inflation subsiding.
5. However without (3) happening I will not step up buying as a long term investor as the future returns will remain low and valuations unattractive.
Just some of my thoughts and planning process.
I diary my thinking so I don't panic or get itchy and buy. Many movements are just short term. 5% here, 6% there. But in a larger perspective and longer term much of these won't matter.
you are a genius !
Powell said no rate cut in 2023.
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - [[ForeverAlone]] - 26-09-2022
(26-09-2022, 08:10 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:
1. So far it has only undo the bubble caused by FED pump. Fed unpump only midway. QT only started in earnest this month.
2. Based on this we should get to 3200.
3. But if there is both an earnings recession and recession we should see the S&P500 fall below 3000 to 2500.
4. The 3rd point is not a given because Fed can just stop and slow hikes once it sees recession coming and inflation subsiding.
5. However without (3) happening I will not step up buying as a long term investor as the future returns will remain low and valuations unattractive.
Just some of my thoughts and planning process.
I diary my thinking so I don't panic or get itchy and buy. Many movements are just short term. 5% here, 6% there. But in a larger perspective and longer term much of these won't matter.
LOLOL, isn't your fav Loo few months back tell people buy S&P500 ? Oh wait that fellow will claim " I buy long term don't bother it failing down , When people question him back, he surely say two things , Oh Is for " Long term " and " Surely will go up after bearish common sense "
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - sgbuffett - 26-09-2022
(26-09-2022, 08:21 AM)Zannn Wrote: US side is quite firm it’s falling, u may not need to focus so much. Strangely yr focus seem to be on market u r not vested, ignore the HK market losses u put $ in? U must really consider cut n get out of HK before no bones left
My thinking is this.
1. HK market now at valuations same as AFC and GFC. It is at historic low valuation. Whereas US is at 5yr average valuation only.
2. From March to July, The HS Tech and HSI rally as the US market sank to June lows. The demonstrate to me decoupling....or ability to decouple
3. The economic misfortunes in China cause this new lows in HSI. Some are reversible and self inflicted others are long term..
4. I am actually planning to buy more at 17000 if it gets there. At HSI 17000, the HK market is valued lower than Asian Financial Crisis.
5. I stopped buying and sold some several weeks ago. ...but have not done anything since. This is to raise some.cash and manage the risk but j only sold a small amount relative to the whole portforlio
6. I view HK as a different market at a different stage from US market.
7. Losses are part and parcel of investing. I did not get everything right as zero covid crushed the China HK market.
8. But when ever I buy it is with the intention to hold for years. I don't worry about losses in the interim or how the market move so much day to day. What I think about is are valuations
too high did j get them wrong and what how to manage the worst case.
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - revealer - 26-09-2022
(26-09-2022, 08:17 AM)RiseofAsia Wrote: Already said Dow handle completed.
Dont believe, obegood!
The down trend has opened up to 20k channel.
I see liao also scare!
I am very scare of flippling down. If Uncle Dow cant hold at 29600pts.
The flippling down is caused by Triggering of Russia retaliation?
Practically every stock exchanges are having cup and handle pattern formed, so far only HSI has completed the handle. It is on its way down and down
https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/2022/08/china-stock-movement.html#jumpspot4
RE: Realistic look at S&P500... - Zannn - 26-09-2022
(26-09-2022, 11:18 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: My thinking is this.
1. HK market now at valuations same as AFC and GFC. It is at historic low valuation. Whereas US is at 5yr average valuation only.
2. From March to July, The HS Tech and HSI rally as the US market sank to June lows. The demonstrate to me decoupling....or ability to decouple
3. The economic misfortunes in China cause this new lows in HSI. Some are reversible and self inflicted others are long term..
4. I am actually planning to buy more at 17000 if it gets there. At HSI 17000, the HK market is valued lower than Asian Financial Crisis.
5. I stopped buying and sold some several weeks ago. ...but have not done anything since. This is to raise some.cash and manage the risk but j only sold a small amount relative to the whole portforlio
6. I view HK as a different market at a different stage from US market.
7. Losses are part and parcel of investing. I did not get everything right as zero covid crushed the China HK market.
8. But when ever I buy it is with the intention to hold for years. I don't worry about losses in the interim or how the market move so much day to day. What I think about is are valuations
too high did j get them wrong and what how to manage the worst case.
Yes dude there will be a point it may decouple. My point is when I share with u to cut much earlier and if u did, u will have save losses and buy back at much attractive price now or later. U keep holding base on attractive valuation then, but u r dealing with prc politics which put other interest priority over economy growth.