Fed aggressive rate hikes always cause deep recession

FED's interest rates vs

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/busin...index.html

and

https://www.livemint.com/market/commodit...01433.html
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US's rate hikes and weapon selling
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/us/po...apply.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...ale-china/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-state-d...020-12-29/

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/0...ast-pivot/

the arm and drug global salesman
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how to profit from the global conflict
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/27/polit...index.html
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The world economy is collapsing...last warning.

https://youtu.be/loWxa5szbvU
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2023 we see bloodbath in most of all the crypto startups
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/11/how-the-...stors.html
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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...ean-energy

with oil rpice stay at stubbornly high level of usd85,it is time to write back what keppel write off in 2021
https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
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you can use bank of america share to hedge against dbs share price fall

Bank of America Corp
NYSE: BAC
OverviewNewsCompareFinancials
Market Summary
> Bank of America Corp
33.06 USD −0.38 (1.12%)
today
Closed: 6 Sept, 7:59 pm GMT-4 • Disclaimer
After hours 32.95 −0.11 (0.33%)
32.96 USD ‎15:05
Open
33.64
High
33.73
Low
32.61
Mkt cap
265.64B
P/E ratio
10.30
Div yield
2.66%
CDP score
A-
52-wk high
50.11
52-wk low
29.67

DBS Group Holdings Ltd
SGX: D05
OverviewCompareFinancials
Market Summary
> DBS Group Holdings Ltd
32.26 SGD −0.28 (0.86%)
today
7 Sept, 2:38 pm SGT • Disclaimer
32.30 SGD ‎14:30
Open
32.26
High
32.40
Low
32.10
Mkt cap
83.45B
P/E ratio
12.56
Div yield
4.37%
CDP score
B
52-wk high
37.49
52-wk low
29.18

with usd going up against most currencies

USD/SGD - US Dollar Singapore Dollar
Real-time FX

1.4092
+0.0027(+0.19%)
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what i learned from the 1997 crisis is when the FED keep hiking keep cash reduce debt and stay out of assets and wait for the global great asset resetting when the panic button is hit by the US's center banker
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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the de-facto central bank, has a mandate to keep the currency trading at HK$7.75 to HK$7.85 per US dollar. The current band was set in 2005 and has never been broken. When it gets too close to one end or the other, the HKMA intervenes, either by buying or selling the city's dollars.

USD/HKD - US Dollar Hong Kong Dollar

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7.8497 +0.0002 0.00%
04:13:40 - Real-time Data. ( Disclaimer )


that is why hang seng blue chips keep fralling and money flow into sgd assets to hedge the risks
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https://www.ft.com/content/2f0eb985-ac20...e8925f1a12

China’s biggest four banks have been hit by a more than 50 per cent increase in overdue loans from the property sector over the past year, as the real estate market’s liquidity crunch spills into the financial sector.

China’s top lenders — the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China — last week reported combined overdue property loans of Rmb136.6bn ($20bn) at the end of June, up from Rmb90bn at the same time last year.

The rise in bad loans from the deteriorating property crisis is worsening asset quality across China’s Rmb367.7tn banking industry. Beyond bad debts, the banks are also suffering from weakening loan demand from their best corporate and retail clients as growth slows in the world’s second-biggest economy.

“We see multiyear structural [return on equity] decline as banks retreat from the property sector amid stalled projects, mortgage boycotts and heightened regulations,” Macquarie analyst Dexter Hsu wrote in a note to clients.

China’s “Big Four’‘ lenders are systemically important institutions and the backbone of China’s financial sector. They are among the world’s biggest banks, holding about 36 per cent of the country’s deposits and issuing a third of its loans. Beijing depends on the groups to stabilise the country’s economy and trusts them to faithfully implement monetary policies.

The size and relatively stable health of the Big Four banks has given Chinese authorities confidence as they try to orchestrate a soft landing for failing companies in the property sector, which accounts for about 30 per cent of national gross domestic product.


However, Hsu said that while banks’ loans to developers accounted for 4 per cent to 9 per cent of their total loans, it will probably become “the major source” of new non-performing loans in the next two years, driving up credit costs for the banks.

“We believe the real exposure to developers could be much bigger than reported because they extended credits to the developers via proprietary investments and off-balance-sheet credits like wealth management products, trust products, private funds and private bonds,” he added.

Exacerbating the gloomy picture, Beijing’s economic planners have called on state banks to take an earnings hit by offering lower interest rates to support homebuyers and businesses. They have also been told to set aside more financial support and resources to help deliver unfinished homes.

A senior official at one of the Big Four lenders said the state of the property market meant that the banks had “no incentive” to boost lending to the sector despite pressure from Beijing.

“Our cost of capital is still too high. We have no incentive to beef up lending even though the regulator asked us to do so. The more loans we issue, the more [non-performing loans] we will have. The return on our lending business has gone down a lot while NPLs are taking off,” the person said.

According to the exchange filings, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank were the worst affected, suffering increases in bad loans to the sector of 152 per cent and 97 per cent from a year ago, respectively.

Recommended
News in-depthChinese business & finance
‘Financial monsters’: China’s bad banks complicate property crisis

The underlying risks for mortgages, once considered among the banks’ safest assets, are rising too, partially because of the increasing pace of defaults by homebuyers, including a country-wide payments boycott on unfinished homes.

At CCB, overdue mortgages that were boycott-related reached Rmb1.14bn at the end of July, said Li Jun, vice-president of the bank. AgBank said it was facing Rmb1.23bn in overdue loans affected by the boycott, nearly double its previous estimate three months ago.

Despite the property sector hit, China’s largest banks reported modest first-half net profit gains of 4.9 to 6.3 per cent year on year and were still among the most profitable listed companies in China at the end of June.
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Yen’s fall against dollar steepens after hitting 24-year low
Japanese officials give stronger hints of intervention to stabilise currency

USD/JPY - US Dollar Japanese Yen

144.07
+1.28(+0.90%)
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if FED rate hike can not bring the price of oil down to usd 60 then to hedge against inflation you should buy kepcorp after its write off its oil and rig business in 2021
https://fifthperson.com/5-reasons-love-k...rn-around/
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the local banks dividend yield will have to raise to above 5% if they will have to continue to attract investors money if US hike rate above 4% after 2022
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investors need to heed against food ,transport,medical and property and all the taxes hikes after all the things go wrong that is Inflation 'Running Wild' as Prices Unexpectedly Surge.
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https://www.zfx.com/market-outlook/infla...kyrockted/
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uob target $30
UNITED Overseas Bank’s (UOB) recent takeover of not 1 but 4 Citi consumer banking portfolios in South-east Asia in one fell swoop might have raised some eyebrows.

Even Wee Cho Yaw, who orchestrated several notable takeovers when he helmed UOB, asked his son and the Singapore bank’s current chief Wee Ee Cheong: “Are you too aggressive?”

The junior Wee recounted this to The Business Times in an interview, during which he also shared why he decided to seize this “best opportunity in a crisis”: The Citi portfolios were well sought after and their quality has withstood the test of the pandemic.


The deal would help elevate UOB to a higher leadership position in various markets, for example, among the top 3 card issuers in Thailand and Malaysia, and among the top 5 in Indonesia. Also, with the Citi portfolios, UOB’s existing retail customer base in the 4 markets is expected to double to 5.3 million, fast-tracking its customer base target by 5 years.

This was the first major acquisition Wee has made since he took over the reins as CEO in 2007. The Wees are the major shareholders of UOB and Wee Ee Cheong sits on the board as deputy chairman.

In spite of peers making major acquisitions in the region while UOB had been quiet on that front all these years, the 1.8 metre tall Wee was unperturbed and stood his ground – even when questioned by shareholders at the annual general meeting.


Biding his time
He was not sleeping at the wheel but merely waiting for a suitable target to buy while preserving financial firepower. Now, Wee’s patience and efforts have paid off.

“One bullet is sufficient, you don’t need to fire too many,” said the former national tennis player about his prize catch with a transaction value of about S$4.9 billion. “In life, all you need is to make 1 or 2 meaningful decisions to put you through.”

The 69-year-old is the newly minted Businessman of the Year 2022 of the Singapore Business Awards, having impressed a panel of eminent judges with his outstanding and sustained contribution to his enterprise, personal qualities, managerial skills and contribution to Singapore’s development.

“I think I owe it to Singapore. Singapore’s a small country. If I can bring the Singapore brand out to the region. I believe (in) the next 10 to 15 years when UOB hits 100 years, the region will be doing well… So I hope we will be a truly, truly regional bank.”

Interestingly, his father was awarded the prestigious title – his second – exactly 20 years ago in 2002, the year after the elder Wee snagged Overseas Union Bank in an acquisition bid, beating DBS. He garnered the award for the first time for the year 1990, shortly after the Singapore Business Awards organised by The Business Times and international express and logistics heavyweight DHL started in 1985.

banker_uob.jpg
Wee Ee Cheong says hiring people well helps one to manage less. PHOTO: ARIFFIN JAMAR, BT
The younger Wee formally began his career at UOB in 1979, when his father asked him to return to Singapore upon his graduation in the United States. Had he not heeded the call, he might now well be a different banker, at the World Bank, as the Master of Applied Economics programme he completed helped to prepare graduates for a career at the international organisation.

That’s the only time he was asked to join UOB, as his father, whom he described as a man of few words, never pressured him or cultivated his interest to manage the business the patriarch had built up on the foundation laid by the first generation.

The elder banker has not put any pressure on his second child in his studies, either. He accompanied him all the way to the US to make sure his son settled down as he embarked on his first degree. While this might have been decades ago, the gesture left a lasting impression on the junior as he reminisced: “That gave me a nice feeling.”

The elder Wee also told his Chinese-educated son to go home if he could not adapt to the English-speaking environment.

Ee Cheong – and his siblings – had attended Chinese-medium schools in Singapore, supplemented by private English tuition, because Wee Cho Yaw insisted that his children, being Chinese, know the language. The alumnus of Nanyang Primary School and Chinese High School (now Hwa Chong Institution) said he struggled in the US in the beginning but persevered and went on to obtain not only a bachelor’s degree but also a master’s.

When he joined the bank, the scion did not have to write a curriculum vitae – or any in his life. Still, he was subject to performance appraisal as well as watchful eyes.

The competitive streak he honed in Singapore top schools as well as his upbringing helped him perform at work and also tune out noises.

Wee said: “There is a disadvantage (of being the owner’s son). You are always under the spotlight. You have a powerful father, people would say whether you are as good or not as good (as him)... I’ve gone through all this, so it’s already quite clear in my mind that if I want to make UOB a place to stay, I must be able to persevere and not be disturbed by all this.

“I stay focused, I do what is right. And I’m confident enough… If you are sincere enough, you’re trustworthy enough, the market will know how to recognise you.”

Wee believed that he was also in a way tested and trained by his father as the seasoned banker when still at the helm would sometimes make it tougher for him at work, to the extent of being not “reasonable”, just to prove that he could take it.

His father had not been told about his winning of the Businessman of the Year at the time of this interview, because the list of winners was embargoed.

bankeruob.jpg
“In order to make UOB sustainable, you should not say that’s because of the Wee family. It must be able to stand alone,” Wee says. PHOTO: ARIFFIN JAMAR, BT
At the age of 54, Wee assumed the helmsman post that “comes with heavy responsibilities”. He knew he must not break the bank founded by his grandfather in the early 20th century, yet needs to make some bold moves with calculated risks to keep it relevant and benefit shareholders.

He decided that the way forward for UOB would be venturing beyond Singapore into Asean to reduce the concentration risk of deriving the bulk of its business from the Republic.

“If Asean does well, Singapore will do well. A rising tide lifts all boats,” said Wee, bullish about the prospects of the South-east Asian 10-member states.

But he’s not content to have a collection of banks in the region with each operating on their disparate systems. “If I want to be a truly, truly Asean bank, we must think and behave the same way.”

A regional platform that provides UOB with a standardised system was thus established, allowing the bank to scale its business across the markets, accelerate the speed of offerings to market, give its customers a uniform experience as well as control risk.

This was achieved at a price tag of about S$600 million, but the investment laid the foundation that the honcho believes will set the bank up for the long haul.

Added Wee: “This is why for the Citibank portfolios, we are able to take 4 countries in one go. So, when I negotiated with Citibank… I think they saw the benefit: They only had to deal with 1 entity for 4 countries… This is where I have an advantage.

“It took me from 2007 until now. For 15 years, I hardly did anything in acquisition because I don’t quite believe in buying banks.”

He said that there are differences between buying a portfolio and buying a bank, as acquiring the whole bank entails inheriting legacy problems. “Because my father’s gone through that in buying banks, I feel there’s hardship in buying a bank.”

Apart from the regional platform UOB set up under Wee’s leadership, the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Advisory Unit was also established, in 2011, to market dedicated, one-stop solutions to foreign corporations that want to set up regional operations in Asia. The unit works with investment agencies and trade bodies in various countries as well as professional service providers to help foreign corporate investors navigate the different tax, accounting, legal and regulatory systems in the region.

Said Wee: “So if I can be successful in helping them go overseas, they will give me a piece of the action.”

He said the only way UOB is able to compete against the domestic banks in the region is this connectivity, which should also create stickiness to help it keep its customers.

The FDI Advisory Unit with its 10 centres across Asia, said Wee, has helped over 3,500 corporations invest into the region, including notably over S$4.6 billion in projected FDIs into Vietnam.

ee%20cheong.jpg
How one conducts oneself and treats others, especially towards the small guys, is deemed important by Wee. PHOTO: ARIFFIN JAMAR, BT
Seeing himself as the steward of UOB, Wee reiterated the importance of thinking and acting for the long term. He extends this principle to the bank’s leadership renewal plan and his potential successor.

He quoted the Chinese saying “wealth doesn’t last beyond 3 generations” and added: “We have to take a long-term view, we cannot take shortcuts… I always tell my people, once you have a long-term mindset, you don’t do anything funny.”

He places importance in training and observing his staff as well as understanding their attributes and background. Specifically, he looks for team players skilled in people management. Also important is how one conducts oneself and treats others, especially towards the small guys.

“I always believe you have to hire people well, and then you manage less. If you bring in a tiger, then you have a problem... Hire the right people with the right values. You let them manage, you empower them, so it becomes a trusting organisation.”

On how he could ensure UOB is not staffed with “yes” men and women who would readily agree with him, he said time will reveal the real character of a person. And UOB has a multi-pronged approach, including processes for checks and balances.

Wee has been growing his own timber the last 10 years, including hiring some from foreign banks. “I’ve been taking some of these people to a point where I think the timber is good enough. I commit to them, I train them, I give them exposure.”

Now, 10 to 15 of them in their mid-40s to early 50s are in the running for the pole position to succeed Wee but there is no clear lead yet, he said.

Don’t expect him to retire right after a new CEO is appointed, though. “I will still continue to play a role, just to give them the strength to move forward... major shareholders are willing to support them. I think that’s important.”

None of his children, aged between 28 and 42, are among the candidates. His 2 sons and a daughter are all doing their own businesses, although his second son had worked for 6 years at UOB following a 2-year stint at a foreign bank.

Wee said he had encouraged his second son to first work and prove himself elsewhere, so as to be spared the pressure the former had gone through of being in the spotlight at UOB.

“He said the idea is good. But (when) people out there know that you are so and so, they don’t want to teach you anything… Then he told me, ‘Do you want me to stay there for the sake of staying and not learning anything, or you prefer me to come here, at least I get to learn something’,” Wee recounted the exchange he had with his son.

Wee said he would not make his children work at UOB if they are not interested. “I want them to be happy.”

Eventually, his children could sit on the board as directors as major shareholders if they are keen.

“This is why I think long term. In order to make UOB sustainable, you should not say that’s because of the Wee family. It must be able to stand alone. To me, I think it’s important,” said Wee.

The shortage of Asean staff, especially the Thai, at UOB’s Singapore office has constrained the pace of the bank’s regionalisation, said Wee when asked about the challenge during his tenure as the chief. “Because we are still quite Singapore-centric. Anything wrong? Nothing wrong. To be a regional player, (however), I think we need people from the region working together with us in the head office, so we all can (better) understand.”

Impetus to move faster
The purchase of Citi portfolios, noted Wee, would give UOB a lot of impetus to move faster. Some 90 per cent of Citi staff in Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam have agreed to join UOB, while 75 per cent of the leadership team in Indonesia will remain on board.

Wee learned tennis at a young age because his father has a court at home, but has hung up his tennis racket. Nowadays, he treks 8-10 kilometres in under 2 hours every weekday, and visits the Botanic Gardens followed by a meal at a hawker centre on Saturdays.

Although he is from one of Singapore’s most prominent families, the low-profile the mild-mannered man has maintained means he hardly gets recognised in the public. “You’re high already, (so) you want to play low (key), (a) simple life is better,” Wee said.

And the tip Wee has for businessmen: “Health is wealth. At the end of the day, this is risk management. If you don’t have a healthy body, if you don’t have a healthy mind, it’s no use having the whole empire.”
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buying started from aug 2022
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...-uob-stake
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they will use the reserve to fight back when their stock fall until a certain level after FED done with its rate hikes

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-ec...SL1N2YO0HK
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sg property stocks rise in sync with the hk property developer shares
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FED's aggressive rate hikes will affect consumer spending as they have less disposal income to spend on food housing transport and ultimately hit company's bottomline
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when American consumers spend less oil price and commodity price will be hit
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/goldman...77?tesla=y
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https://sg.news.yahoo.com/starbucks-coo-...47967.html
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if companie have problem to raise money vie bond,share listing or financial reengineering after many rounds of US rate hikes they will have to

https://nypost.com/2022/08/19/half-of-co...-suggests/
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it is a good thing if this happened as less liquidity in the global market after rate hikes by FED

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedma...29e5132fe0
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it is good for the US's stock market with layoffs and increasing US's rate hikes ,consumer spending will be controlled

https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-...uts-2022-5
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there will be a point where the big companies can not pass the cost back to consumers with growth slowing down

and salary not increase to keep up with the inflation
https://www.reuters.com/business/big-com...022-04-21/
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1 Singapore Dollar equals
4.96 Chinese Yuan

https://images.app.goo.gl/WmUf8uCAwAQHvqFr9
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https://images.app.goo.gl/wP9hHYiqsMugbAox9

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ble-dollar
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why most young malaysian chinese seek fortune in singapure after covid19

https://images.app.goo.gl/mA62attd2ic7ANsY6


SGD/MYR - Singapore Dollar Malaysian Ringgit

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3.2288 +0.0051 +0.16%

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/asiapac...063135.htm

out of 7.3m chinese assuming 3m are around age of 20 to 30 then it will be a young workforce to tap on
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