21-09-2022, 01:29 PM
![](https://i.imgur.com/CLvY2jA.png")
Fed aggressive rate hikes always cause deep recession
21-09-2022, 01:45 PM
21-09-2022, 01:48 PM
from oct 1987 to 9ct 1997 and into march 2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/07/busin...rkets.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFtiwNUDIcs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/07/busin...rkets.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFtiwNUDIcs
21-09-2022, 01:50 PM
21-09-2022, 03:14 PM
21-09-2022, 04:03 PM
higher rates,bitcoins,crypto,easy money and inflated assets globally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXqIb2KOC3M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXqIb2KOC3M
21-09-2022, 04:06 PM
today botak mini finally shine
https://tenor.com/view/midget-dr-evil-au...f-15395879
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mspfiZHpUI
https://tenor.com/view/midget-dr-evil-au...f-15395879
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mspfiZHpUI
21-09-2022, 04:09 PM
after taking over four markets from angmos bank early 2022
https://tenor.com/view/one-million-dollars-gif-24847699
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAUyF9KhSe4
https://tenor.com/view/one-million-dollars-gif-24847699
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAUyF9KhSe4
21-09-2022, 04:36 PM
22-09-2022, 08:59 AM
finally we see
EUR/SGD - Euro Singapore Dollar
Real-time FX
1.3932
-0.0005(-0.04%)
vs
usd/sgd-1.412
EUR/SGD - Euro Singapore Dollar
Real-time FX
1.3932
-0.0005(-0.04%)
vs
usd/sgd-1.412
22-09-2022, 09:02 AM
and we finally see yuan in this stage after its becomes sdr currency in sept 2016
SGD/CNY - Singapore Dollar Chinese Yuan
Real-time FX
4.9657
-0.0067(-0.14%)
vs
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/
SGD/CNY - Singapore Dollar Chinese Yuan
Real-time FX
4.9657
-0.0067(-0.14%)
vs
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/
22-09-2022, 09:06 AM
IMF controlled by US
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business...et-2685946
Nearly all countries are members of the IMF, but the United States is the largest cumulative contributor to the IMF at $155 billion and the largest voting bloc—holding effective veto power for many decisions.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business...et-2685946
Nearly all countries are members of the IMF, but the United States is the largest cumulative contributor to the IMF at $155 billion and the largest voting bloc—holding effective veto power for many decisions.
22-09-2022, 09:07 AM
22-09-2022, 09:08 AM
When Fed ease and did QE ...they say it causes market to rise which happened.
Now Fed do reverse. We expect reverse to happen.
This is nothing complicated. It js complicated by people who argue the reverse!!!!
Now Fed do reverse. We expect reverse to happen.
This is nothing complicated. It js complicated by people who argue the reverse!!!!
I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
22-09-2022, 09:21 AM
Who controls all our money?
To ensure a nation's economy remains healthy, its central bank regulates the amount of money in circulation. Influencing interest rates, printing money, and setting bank reserve requirements are all tools central banks use to control the money supply.
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/284...nk2017.pdf
why we have
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Infr...tment_Bank
https://www.bjreview.com/World/202008/t2...18372.html
To ensure a nation's economy remains healthy, its central bank regulates the amount of money in circulation. Influencing interest rates, printing money, and setting bank reserve requirements are all tools central banks use to control the money supply.
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/284...nk2017.pdf
why we have
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Infr...tment_Bank
https://www.bjreview.com/World/202008/t2...18372.html
22-09-2022, 09:23 AM
will our basket skew towards usd ,euro,yen or rmb?
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-a...investment
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-a...investment
22-09-2022, 09:26 AM
will this funds fight off a severe global recessions trigger off by aggressive FED rate hikes after 2023?
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-s...evelopment
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-s...evelopment
22-09-2022, 09:30 AM
2009
Launched in 2009, Bitcoin is the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is created, distributed, traded, and stored using a decentralized ledger system known as a blockchain.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/dimon-says-c...-1.1821881
Launched in 2009, Bitcoin is the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is created, distributed, traded, and stored using a decentralized ledger system known as a blockchain.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/dimon-says-c...-1.1821881
22-09-2022, 09:32 AM
22-09-2022, 09:40 AM
22-09-2022, 09:40 AM
it happened every few years people do not learn from the past ponzi schemes
22-09-2022, 11:53 AM
the"dot.com" era of dow jones at 30,000 points and nasdaq at 10,000 points and above
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https://www.ft.com/content/af12dcb4-bab2...41ca58cd1d
Jay Powell refused to rule out a recession in the world’s largest economy as the Federal Reserve implemented a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise and published a much gloomier set of projections.
Powell’s downbeat commentary on the economy came as the Federal Open Market Committee lifted its benchmark interest rate to a target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent on Wednesday and signalled an intention to keep monetary policy tight as it fights soaring inflation.
“No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be,” Powell said in response to a question about whether higher rates would hurt the economy. Avoiding such an outcome would depend on how quickly wage and price inflation abates and whether the red-hot jobs market starts to cool down, he added.
“The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish” because monetary policy needs to be “more restrictive or restrictive for longer”, Powell warned during a press conference following the rate rise announcement.
His remarks followed the publication of a new “dot plot” of Fed officials’ interest rate projections that reinforced the central bank’s commitment to a “higher for longer” approach. The forecast showed the benchmark rate rising to 4.4 per cent by the end of this year before peaking at 4.6 per cent next year.
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https://www.ft.com/content/af12dcb4-bab2...41ca58cd1d
Jay Powell refused to rule out a recession in the world’s largest economy as the Federal Reserve implemented a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise and published a much gloomier set of projections.
Powell’s downbeat commentary on the economy came as the Federal Open Market Committee lifted its benchmark interest rate to a target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent on Wednesday and signalled an intention to keep monetary policy tight as it fights soaring inflation.
“No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be,” Powell said in response to a question about whether higher rates would hurt the economy. Avoiding such an outcome would depend on how quickly wage and price inflation abates and whether the red-hot jobs market starts to cool down, he added.
“The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish” because monetary policy needs to be “more restrictive or restrictive for longer”, Powell warned during a press conference following the rate rise announcement.
His remarks followed the publication of a new “dot plot” of Fed officials’ interest rate projections that reinforced the central bank’s commitment to a “higher for longer” approach. The forecast showed the benchmark rate rising to 4.4 per cent by the end of this year before peaking at 4.6 per cent next year.
22-09-2022, 12:00 PM
28-09-2022, 09:51 AM
As the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) looks to continue tightening its policy in October amid the inflationary environment, the Singapore dollar is expected to rally against its currency basket, but may still struggle to outpace the strengthening US dollar, says Monex’s Jay Zhao-Murray.
The Singapore dollar has weakened against the US dollar for nearly two years now, with losses accruing to 4.3% year-to-date (ytd). According to the Monex FX market analyst, his base case sees USDSGD rising to 1.44, although risks are “tilted” to the downside.
“Given the Singapore dollar’s stronger performance against its regional peers, the ytd rally in USDSGD isn’t necessarily a concern for the MAS. However, recent dynamics within the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) basket may be starting to turn,” says Zhao-Murray.
The S$NEER is the trade-weighted currency index comprising a basket of currencies that the MAS uses to evaluate the stance of its monetary policy.
Over the past 24 hours, intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to lower USDJPY has posed a “new threat” to this year’s upward trend in USDSGD — the Japanese yen holds the fifth-largest weighting in the S$NEER basket. “The fact that BoJ officials are actively buying yen to prevent further depreciation is beginning to place downward pressure on the S$NEER”, he adds.
Nevertheless, Zhao-Murray believes this year’s story is less about the Singapore dollar’s weakness than it is about about US dollar strength — out of 32 currencies in the expanded majors category, the US dollar is ranked 5th in terms of ytd performance, while the Singapore dollar is close behind in 7th place.
See also: HSBC, Standard Chartered slump in Asia as British pound slides to record
Within the APAC region, the Singapore dollar has been the top performer excluding the Hong Kong dollar which is pegged to the US dollar, he notes. As a result, the S$NEER has appreciated 4.8% ytd despite the near 25% weight that the US dollar holds within the basket.
Zhao-Murray explains that the dynamic of a strengthening S$NEER is “by design”, as the MAS judges that long-term currency appreciation is consistent with its historical trend, as well as Singapore’s strong banking and financial system, deep FX reserves, prudent fiscal policy, and wide current account surpluses.
“Over the past year, the pace of S$NEER appreciation has been more rapid than usual to offset imported inflationary pressures,” he adds.
See also: Pound drops to record low as UK signals more tax cuts
Inflation likely to see MAS continue tightening in October
Zhao-Murray says that the main reason for the Singapore dollar’s strength relative to its APAC peers stems from MAS’s aggressive response to high inflation, which has risen to 7.5% y-o-y as of August.
“Typically, the MAS adjusts policy twice per year, in April and October. In 2022, however, the MAS has tightened policy three times, once in the scheduled April meeting and twice in impromptu inter-meeting announcements,” he says.
Within those meetings, MAS increased the slope of its S$NEER band all three times and re-centred the midpoint of the band higher twice.
“As we approach the MAS’s next meeting, which does not yet have a firm date but is anticipated to occur between October 10th and 14th, there is a reasonable chance that we could see another adjustment,” the analyst shares. This is especially considering that the S$NEER is merely 0.4% below estimates of the top end of the band, with inflation pressures continuing to climb, and MAS’s managing director Ravi Menon recently warning that medium-term inflation will likely be “higher for longer” going forward, the analyst adds.
The pace of inflation has steadily risen, with year-on-year headline consumer price inflation (CPI) either rising or holding flat over the last 11 months. The 7.0% headline inflation in July was up 30% from the month before, driven by food, electricity and gas, while core CPI reached 4.8% y-o-y, which was up from 4.4% in June.
Zhao-Murray points out that both these metrics are running above the MAS’s July forecasts, which were already upgraded to ranges of 5% to 6% for headline and 3% to 4% for core at that time.
To stay ahead of Singapore and the region’s corporate and economic trends, click here for Latest Section
August’s CPI, which was released on Sept 23, saw core inflation rise further to 5.1% y-o-y in from 4.8% in July and headline inflation coming in at 7.5% y-o-y, up from 7.0% in July. The results were marginally higher than the median economist forecast, which pointed to 7.2% headline and 5.0% core CPI over that period.
Meanwhile, Zhao-Murray notes that the degree of tightening slowed at the most recent MAS meeting. “In April, both the slope and midpoint of the band were adjusted, but back in July, the MAS chose to merely maintain the slope of S$NEER appreciation while re-centring the target,” he says.
He notes as well: “The MAS is unlikely to change the width of the band, as it typically does so only when the degree of economic uncertainty has dramatically changed, and it has not done so in a decade,”.
Zhao-Murray adds that re-centring the band higher would be “hawkish” and have a large near-term impact on inflation. “It would take more time to impact inflation than re-centring alone, which is why both policies are frequently combined when decisive action is needed to lean against inflation,” the analyst explains.
Given current inflation dynamics and the slight distance between the S$NEER and the top end of its range, he believes it is highly likely that the MAS will readjust the centre of the band upward.
“While Singapore’s growth outlook is still positive, with private sector economists expecting 3.6% growth in 2022, it has deteriorated considerably over the course of the third quarter, making the combination of a re-centring and an increase in the slope less likely,” he says.
Still, Zhao-Murray advises that the risk of maximum hawkishness should not be ignored, considering the strength of the latest inflation data and the focus on upside inflation risks in recent commentary from MAS officials.
The Singapore dollar has weakened against the US dollar for nearly two years now, with losses accruing to 4.3% year-to-date (ytd). According to the Monex FX market analyst, his base case sees USDSGD rising to 1.44, although risks are “tilted” to the downside.
“Given the Singapore dollar’s stronger performance against its regional peers, the ytd rally in USDSGD isn’t necessarily a concern for the MAS. However, recent dynamics within the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) basket may be starting to turn,” says Zhao-Murray.
The S$NEER is the trade-weighted currency index comprising a basket of currencies that the MAS uses to evaluate the stance of its monetary policy.
Over the past 24 hours, intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to lower USDJPY has posed a “new threat” to this year’s upward trend in USDSGD — the Japanese yen holds the fifth-largest weighting in the S$NEER basket. “The fact that BoJ officials are actively buying yen to prevent further depreciation is beginning to place downward pressure on the S$NEER”, he adds.
Nevertheless, Zhao-Murray believes this year’s story is less about the Singapore dollar’s weakness than it is about about US dollar strength — out of 32 currencies in the expanded majors category, the US dollar is ranked 5th in terms of ytd performance, while the Singapore dollar is close behind in 7th place.
See also: HSBC, Standard Chartered slump in Asia as British pound slides to record
Within the APAC region, the Singapore dollar has been the top performer excluding the Hong Kong dollar which is pegged to the US dollar, he notes. As a result, the S$NEER has appreciated 4.8% ytd despite the near 25% weight that the US dollar holds within the basket.
Zhao-Murray explains that the dynamic of a strengthening S$NEER is “by design”, as the MAS judges that long-term currency appreciation is consistent with its historical trend, as well as Singapore’s strong banking and financial system, deep FX reserves, prudent fiscal policy, and wide current account surpluses.
“Over the past year, the pace of S$NEER appreciation has been more rapid than usual to offset imported inflationary pressures,” he adds.
See also: Pound drops to record low as UK signals more tax cuts
Inflation likely to see MAS continue tightening in October
Zhao-Murray says that the main reason for the Singapore dollar’s strength relative to its APAC peers stems from MAS’s aggressive response to high inflation, which has risen to 7.5% y-o-y as of August.
“Typically, the MAS adjusts policy twice per year, in April and October. In 2022, however, the MAS has tightened policy three times, once in the scheduled April meeting and twice in impromptu inter-meeting announcements,” he says.
Within those meetings, MAS increased the slope of its S$NEER band all three times and re-centred the midpoint of the band higher twice.
“As we approach the MAS’s next meeting, which does not yet have a firm date but is anticipated to occur between October 10th and 14th, there is a reasonable chance that we could see another adjustment,” the analyst shares. This is especially considering that the S$NEER is merely 0.4% below estimates of the top end of the band, with inflation pressures continuing to climb, and MAS’s managing director Ravi Menon recently warning that medium-term inflation will likely be “higher for longer” going forward, the analyst adds.
The pace of inflation has steadily risen, with year-on-year headline consumer price inflation (CPI) either rising or holding flat over the last 11 months. The 7.0% headline inflation in July was up 30% from the month before, driven by food, electricity and gas, while core CPI reached 4.8% y-o-y, which was up from 4.4% in June.
Zhao-Murray points out that both these metrics are running above the MAS’s July forecasts, which were already upgraded to ranges of 5% to 6% for headline and 3% to 4% for core at that time.
To stay ahead of Singapore and the region’s corporate and economic trends, click here for Latest Section
August’s CPI, which was released on Sept 23, saw core inflation rise further to 5.1% y-o-y in from 4.8% in July and headline inflation coming in at 7.5% y-o-y, up from 7.0% in July. The results were marginally higher than the median economist forecast, which pointed to 7.2% headline and 5.0% core CPI over that period.
Meanwhile, Zhao-Murray notes that the degree of tightening slowed at the most recent MAS meeting. “In April, both the slope and midpoint of the band were adjusted, but back in July, the MAS chose to merely maintain the slope of S$NEER appreciation while re-centring the target,” he says.
He notes as well: “The MAS is unlikely to change the width of the band, as it typically does so only when the degree of economic uncertainty has dramatically changed, and it has not done so in a decade,”.
Zhao-Murray adds that re-centring the band higher would be “hawkish” and have a large near-term impact on inflation. “It would take more time to impact inflation than re-centring alone, which is why both policies are frequently combined when decisive action is needed to lean against inflation,” the analyst explains.
Given current inflation dynamics and the slight distance between the S$NEER and the top end of its range, he believes it is highly likely that the MAS will readjust the centre of the band upward.
“While Singapore’s growth outlook is still positive, with private sector economists expecting 3.6% growth in 2022, it has deteriorated considerably over the course of the third quarter, making the combination of a re-centring and an increase in the slope less likely,” he says.
Still, Zhao-Murray advises that the risk of maximum hawkishness should not be ignored, considering the strength of the latest inflation data and the focus on upside inflation risks in recent commentary from MAS officials.
29-09-2022, 09:50 AM
finally they decide to hke rates to stop the money outflow to usd
29-09-2022, 09:53 AM
company or individual or country usd debt vs rate hikes vs growth vs forex vs stock markets vs reserve
USD/SGD - US Dollar Singapore Dollar
Real-time FX
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1.4381 +0.0040 +0.28%
USD/SGD - US Dollar Singapore Dollar
Real-time FX
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1.4381 +0.0040 +0.28%
29-09-2022, 10:02 AM
how our financial hub interconnected with all this g20 currencies
https://www.investing.com/currencies/liv...ross-rates
https://www.investing.com/currencies/liv...ross-rates
29-09-2022, 10:04 AM
https://www.investing.com/portfolio/?por...FlYA%3D%3D
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/in...r-made.asp
all with fed rising rate situation
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/in...r-made.asp
all with fed rising rate situation
29-09-2022, 10:06 AM
currency war with us rate hikes part 2
https://theeconreview.com/2018/10/16/how...ish-pound/
https://theeconreview.com/2018/10/16/how...ish-pound/
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