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Two swing states called by a major news outlet as of early Wednesday are North Carolina and Georgia, both of which were won by Trump. Harris likely can’t count on Arizona, the swing state where she’d polled the worst, though it will take some time to count the votes there.

Related:How news organizations call the election — and why you should trust them

If Georgia and Arizona indeed fall to Trump — and keep in mind they haven’t been called yet, but he looks formidable there — Harris’s path to victory depends on winning all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If she loses just one in this scenario, it’s over for her. (The other remaining swing state, Nevada, will be very slow in counting, but it would be too small to make much of a difference in the Electoral College.)

All 3 of those Rust Belt states are still close. He leads current count in all 3, many uncounted votes remain from Democratic-leaning areas. But notably, outside swing states, he is on track to do significantly better than he did in 2020, so a Harris win scenario depends on the Rust Belt defying an apparent nationwide shift in Trump’s favor.

For instance, Biden won Virginia by 10. As of late Tuesday, with more than 80 percent of votes in the state counted, Harris led Trump by a mere 1.7 percentage points. That margin is sure to expand when more Democratic areas count, but per the New York Times’s forecast of the uncounted vote, she’ll likely end up with somewhere around a 5-point win, significantly worse than Biden.