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Economy Watch | China
Monthly updates on the state of the economy in China...China’s GDP expanded by 4.6% in Q3 with momentum improving slightly in September
October 30, 2024. In line from 4.7% in Q2. This was largely driven by weakness in aggregate demand because of the property downturn and restrained private consumption, a slowing pace of infrastructure investment, and a relatively high base of comparison in Q3 2023. 

The stimulus measures released in September and October, and the expected fiscal stimulus that will be announced in early November, will support growth, but a large part of it will only be felt next year. Also, what is really needed for a sustainable growth rebound are significant structural reforms, which will take time to take effect; as such, we expect the market to continue being characterized by weak spending and intense price-based competition.

China's GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, which was higher than expected and better than 5.2% growth in previous quarter. 

This growth was a strong start to the year, and it increased investor confidence in the market.


Here are some details about China's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024:

GDP: China's GDP reached 29.63 trillion yuan (about $4.17 trillion) in the first quarter.

Quarterly growth: The economy grew 1.6% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter.

Forecast: The 5.3% growth beat the average forecast of 4.5% by 31 economists.

Govt target: China's govt is targeting GDP growth of "around 5%" for 2024.

Factors driving growth: Some factors that contributed to the growth include rising production demand, stable employment & prices, and growing market confidence.

Manufacturing: The "new three" industries of EVs, solar panels, and batteries have contributed to the growth in manufacturing.

Concerns: However, there are some concerns about the economy, including a mismatch between consumption and production, and between small & medium-sized enterprises and large enterprises. 

There are also concerns that China's overcapacity in certain industries could hinder domestic industries in the US and European Union.