[Tee tiong huat]

Despite mounting threats from Moscow, Serbia is deepening its support for Ukraine through covert arms transfer and reconstruction offers, signaling that it is no longer willing to be intimidated. Belgrade continues to play both sides, but the balance is shifting, and each new step brings it closer to the Western camp. Despite historical alignment with Moscow, Serbia continues to support Ukraine’s war effort quietly. As we noted in the previous report, Serbian arms producers are expanding shipments of ammunition to Ukraine, using gray-scheme transfers through NATO intermediaries. Shell components from Serbian factories are being exported to companies in Bulgaria & Czech Republic, which assemble them deliver the final products to the front. 

Delivering over 100,000 artillery shells & 1 million rounds of ammunition, scale of these ops has drawn sharp criticism from Russian intelligence, accused Belgrade of profiting from war while hiding behind a cowardly multi-vector policy. Kremlin’s warnings have not reversed Serbia’s behavior; if anything, it appears to emboldened President Aleksandar Vucic now pledged rebuild Ukrainian cities as a continued support, is announcement came at summit in Odesa, Vucic repeated msg on Serbian television offer is not a one off claim, has not joined Europe Union sanctions on Russia, refuses to sign anti-Russian declarations, & continues to emphasize Ukraine’s territorial integrity & offer humanitarian assistance, & deliveries generators & medical supplies, now a readiness to contribute to postwar reconstruction. Kremlin has taken notice, but public threats have not deterred Vucic's position. This balancing act even delicate divide between Serbia’s political leadership & its population. Serbian society remains over whelmingly sympathetic to Russia, a legacy of cultural, historical and
geopolitical ties, w/deep distrust of West after Yugoslav wars, however, govt remains committed to European Union accession, cooperation with Ukraine is now part of that deal. 

Rather than choosing side, Belgrade attempting to appease Brussels quiet aid deliveries & public gestures of goodwill, without provoking domestic backlash or triggering confrontation w/Moscow by cutting ties w/Russia completely. A strategy of silent alignment has worked so far, each new step toward Ukraine & West makes it harder for Russia. As of previously, Russia already responded w/sharp escalation of its own, with a powerful explosion struck Krusik munitions plant supplying arms to Ukraine, injuring 7 workers. Serbian officials did not publicly assign blame, a pro-Russian analysts suggested sabotage. Moscow also used diplomatic pressure, state media & veiled threats to signal further alignment w/West still carry consequences for Russian. A stakes in Serbia’s energy sector, particularly through Gazprom’s Serbian subsidiary, being increasingly vulnerable to Europe sanctions, Serbia is placed further pressure not to choose Russia but deeper Western integration.

This growing tension reveals Serbia is no longer a pliant, Moscow once assumed. Arms shipments continue through 3rd countries & public denials Serbian reconstruction offers are now made openly. Although Belgrade refuses to join sanctions, it moving closer to Euro camp, not through grand announcement, but through consistent incremental defiance. Russia’s decision try to escalate with sabotage may have backfired: it did not silence Serbia, & only convinced its leadership neutrality is no longer sustainable. Despite deep social and historical ties to Russia, Serbian officials may now start to realize that continued alignment w/Moscow is a losing hand, & that integration w/West offers a more secure long-term path. Overall, Serbia is quietly leaving Russia behind, & avoiding open confrontation, since aid to Ukraine is expanding & becoming harder to ignore. The longer this balancing act continues, the more obvious it becomes that Serbia sees its future in cooperating w/Europe & not with Moscow’s. This last outpost in Balkans for Serbia, recalibrating country’s position through quiet defiance, economic opportunity, geopolitical and necessity.

https://youtu.be/nsf7Uzk3FiA?si=x6l_OvNCnUagmvcv